Pennsylvania Voter Registration

[Keystone Phil]

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

East of Frankford is tricky. We have some housing projects and more blacks moving into the lower parts of the NE. That being said, some of the white areas are pretty racist.

Obama stopped at the Mayfair Diner today. I don't know how great of a move that was. I think it actually helped motivate McCain voters (see my comments in my seperate thread on the 2008 board).

There may be some very low turnout in the NE but if there isn't, Obama is going to suffer.

At the end of the day, which will win- The Economy or Race?  That's what Northeast Philly boils down to.

If McCain catches a break with this economic news for a week or so before the election, I think he'll be in amazing shape up here. Even with the bad economic news, the energy for McCain is awesome. I just think that there's too much of a disconnect between most white voters up here and Obama. It's not the same as the relationship between voters here and Nutter.

[TeePee4Prez]

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

East of Frankford is tricky. We have some housing projects and more blacks moving into the lower parts of the NE. That being said, some of the white areas are pretty racist.

Obama stopped at the Mayfair Diner today. I don't know how great of a move that was. I think it actually helped motivate McCain voters (see my comments in my seperate thread on the 2008 board).

There may be some very low turnout in the NE but if there isn't, Obama is going to suffer.

At the end of the day, which will win- The Economy or Race?  That's what Northeast Philly boils down to.

If McCain catches a break with this economic news for a week or so before the election, I think he'll be in amazing shape up here. Even with the bad economic news, the energy for McCain is awesome. I just think that there's too much of a disconnect between most white voters up here and Obama. It's not the same as the relationship between voters here and Nutter.

Going back to 2004, you also thought that with Melissa Brown vs. the Birkenstock, liberal Jewish woman who operated an abortion clinc.  We both know what happened there.

[Keystone Phil]

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

East of Frankford is tricky. We have some housing projects and more blacks moving into the lower parts of the NE. That being said, some of the white areas are pretty racist.

Obama stopped at the Mayfair Diner today. I don't know how great of a move that was. I think it actually helped motivate McCain voters (see my comments in my seperate thread on the 2008 board).

There may be some very low turnout in the NE but if there isn't, Obama is going to suffer.

At the end of the day, which will win- The Economy or Race?  That's what Northeast Philly boils down to.

If McCain catches a break with this economic news for a week or so before the election, I think he'll be in amazing shape up here. Even with the bad economic news, the energy for McCain is awesome. I just think that there's too much of a disconnect between most white voters up here and Obama. It's not the same as the relationship between voters here and Nutter.

Going back to 2004, you also thought that with Melissa Brown vs. the Birkenstock, liberal Jewish woman who operated an abortion clinc.  We both know what happened there.

Uh...I think this is a little different and you know it.

[TeePee4Prez]

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

East of Frankford is tricky. We have some housing projects and more blacks moving into the lower parts of the NE. That being said, some of the white areas are pretty racist.

Obama stopped at the Mayfair Diner today. I don't know how great of a move that was. I think it actually helped motivate McCain voters (see my comments in my seperate thread on the 2008 board).

There may be some very low turnout in the NE but if there isn't, Obama is going to suffer.

At the end of the day, which will win- The Economy or Race?  That's what Northeast Philly boils down to.

If McCain catches a break with this economic news for a week or so before the election, I think he'll be in amazing shape up here. Even with the bad economic news, the energy for McCain is awesome. I just think that there's too much of a disconnect between most white voters up here and Obama. It's not the same as the relationship between voters here and Nutter.

Going back to 2004, you also thought that with Melissa Brown vs. the Birkenstock, liberal Jewish woman who operated an abortion clinc.  We both know what happened there.

Uh...I think this is a little different and you know it.

I know, I know... race.

BUT Melissa Brown also had about 20 lawn signs to 2 for Schwartz.  All looks relatively quiet here this time.  You were practically certain Melissa Brown was going to win the Northeast.  I'll even concede Obama won't get 60% of the vote in the Philly portion of the 13th, but he'll win it comfortably.

[Keystone Phil]

I know, I know... race.

BUT Melissa Brown also had about 20 lawn signs to 2 for Schwartz.  All looks relatively quiet here this time.  You were practically certain Melissa Brown was going to win the Northeast.  I'll even concede Obama won't get 60% of the vote in the Philly portion of the 13th, but he'll win it comfortably.

No, it's more than just race. You're totally sheltered if you think that it's "quiet" this time. I've seen far more McCain signs than I saw Brown signs. It doesn't even compare. It's a totally different race with totally different factors.

[TeePee4Prez]

I know, I know... race.

BUT Melissa Brown also had about 20 lawn signs to 2 for Schwartz.  All looks relatively quiet here this time.  You were practically certain Melissa Brown was going to win the Northeast.  I'll even concede Obama won't get 60% of the vote in the Philly portion of the 13th, but he'll win it comfortably.

No, it's more than just race. You're totally sheltered if you think that it's "quiet" this time. I've seen far more McCain signs than I saw Brown signs. It doesn't even compare. It's a totally different race with totally different factors.

If it isn't race then what is it?  War's unpopular.  Economy's in the crapper.  I guarantee you if Clinton or Biden were on top of the ticket, McCain's campaign would be nonexistant here and would have pulled out of PA months ago.

[Keystone Phil]

I know, I know... race.

BUT Melissa Brown also had about 20 lawn signs to 2 for Schwartz.  All looks relatively quiet here this time.  You were practically certain Melissa Brown was going to win the Northeast.  I'll even concede Obama won't get 60% of the vote in the Philly portion of the 13th, but he'll win it comfortably.

No, it's more than just race. You're totally sheltered if you think that it's "quiet" this time. I've seen far more McCain signs than I saw Brown signs. It doesn't even compare. It's a totally different race with totally different factors.

If it isn't race then what is it?  War's unpopular.  Economy's in the crapper.  I guarantee you if Clinton or Biden were on top of the ticket, McCain's campaign would be nonexistant here and would have pulled out of PA months ago.

It's more than just the guy being black. It's the Muslim rumors, the Rev. Wright connections, the inexperience. People also like McCain here. People like the veteran story, the Scotch - Irish last name and how much do you want to bet that these people also think he's Catholic?

If it was Biden or Hillary at the top, yeah, it wouldn't be much of a contest. I don't think anyone concedes PA months before a General election (especially with Hillary since she's so polarizing) but I'd have no problem saying that either Hillary or Biden would win up here. The problem for you: Obama's at the top.

[Meeker]

FYI...



I'm trying to find a key I'm but not having much luck...

[LanceMcSteel]

PA will be solid Democratic come November. Despite Phil's erratic assersitions that Obama will lose votes among blue collar workers, for every blue collar worker Obama loses he will more than offset those losses with massive gains among latte Liberals in the Philly burbs, historic AA turnout and unprecented youth turnout.

PA voted for the effete french elitist John Kerry when Dubya won by 2.5 points nationwide, with Obama certain to win the popular vote comfortably, PA will be high single digits for Obama at least.

[Keystone Phil]

PA voted for the effete french elitist John Kerry when Dubya won by 2.5 points nationwide, with Obama certain to win the popular vote comfortably, PA will be high single digits for Obama at least.

Believe it or not, Kerry connected better with those blue collar workers than Obama does. The machine loved Kerry; they're barely favorable towards Obama. Kerry also didn't have to deal with Rev. Wright, Muslim rumors, race, etc.

Sorry if I sound like a broken record but it's the truth (whether we like it or not).

Obama probably is making up ground with the liberals in the Philly suburbs and with black voters but if this race narrows, this state will definitely be a tossup again.

[Mr.Jones]

Why is their still a debate on PA when Obama is actually by double digits on it ? Even with 3+ persent of statistical and polling error, Obama still cruishes home by near 10% lead, there can be no doubt about it.

[TeePee4Prez]

I know, I know... race.

BUT Melissa Brown also had about 20 lawn signs to 2 for Schwartz.  All looks relatively quiet here this time.  You were practically certain Melissa Brown was going to win the Northeast.  I'll even concede Obama won't get 60% of the vote in the Philly portion of the 13th, but he'll win it comfortably.

No, it's more than just race. You're totally sheltered if you think that it's "quiet" this time. I've seen far more McCain signs than I saw Brown signs. It doesn't even compare. It's a totally different race with totally different factors.

If it isn't race then what is it?  War's unpopular.  Economy's in the crapper.  I guarantee you if Clinton or Biden were on top of the ticket, McCain's campaign would be nonexistant here and would have pulled out of PA months ago.

It's more than just the guy being black. It's the Muslim rumors, the Rev. Wright connections, the inexperience. People also like McCain here. People like the veteran story, the Scotch - Irish last name and how much do you want to bet that these people also think he's Catholic?

If it was Biden or Hillary at the top, yeah, it wouldn't be much of a contest. I don't think anyone concedes PA months before a General election (especially with Hillary since she's so polarizing) but I'd have no problem saying that either Hillary or Biden would win up here. The problem for you: Obama's at the top.

SCOTCH-IRISH?  Yeah, that's as bad, if not worse than saying English to an Irish Catholic.  I would love for you guys to play that up.  I think Joe Biden has the better of him on that in the Northeast.  As for the Muslim rumors and teh Rev. Wright crap, are people really gonna fall for that in spite of the economy.  Again, I'll say yes and give you a few of the more conservative areas of the NE tilting the GOP's way, but it won;t be overwhelming compared to Kerry. 

 

[Keystone Phil]

SCOTCH-IRISH?  Yeah, that's as bad, if not worse than saying English to an Irish Catholic.  I would love for you guys to play that up.

Dude, the point is that his name is McCain. You know what I mean. 

[J. J.]

First, I'm sticking with my prediction that Obama carries PA, but not by much.

Some of it is race, the Muslim/Wright stuff, but most of it is the "God and guns" comment.  That won't do it in Phila, but it will in the rest of the state.

[TeePee4Prez]

First, I'm sticking with my prediction that Obama carries PA, but not by much.

Some of it is race, the Muslim/Wright stuff, but most of it is the "God and guns" comment.  That won't do it in Phila, but it will in the rest of the state.

Look at the polls.  They've been consistently double digits.

[Keystone Phil]

First, I'm sticking with my prediction that Obama carries PA, but not by much.

Some of it is race, the Muslim/Wright stuff, but most of it is the "God and guns" comment.  That won't do it in Phila, but it will in the rest of the state.

Look at the polls.  They've been consistently double digits.

And it's three weeks before the election. That support is definitely soft. He's not winning PA by double digits.