Pennsylvania Voter Registration

[TeePee4Prez]

The National Republican Party needs to majorly reorient itself if it wishes to take back the Philly Burbs...

McCain's candidacy may or may not lay the groundwork for that reorientation, but I dont think he's going to cause a major sea change in suburban philly's view of national politics right away.  Sure he may be competitive because of Reagan Democrats, but any sort of lasting effect probably won't be seen in this cycle.

There are very few Reagan Democrats in this area and if there are, they're generally very old.

[bullmoose88]

The National Republican Party needs to majorly reorient itself if it wishes to take back the Philly Burbs...

McCain's candidacy may or may not lay the groundwork for that reorientation, but I dont think he's going to cause a major sea change in suburban philly's view of national politics right away.  Sure he may be competitive because of Reagan Democrats, but any sort of lasting effect probably won't be seen in this cycle.

There are very few Reagan Democrats in this area and if there are, they're generally very old.

You obviously havent been to Lower Bucks lately...those weren't latte liberals voting for Clinton.

[J. J.]

The key in the east may be Montgomery County.  It went Democratic in terms of registration for the first time since the Civil War just before the primary.  Hillary won it in the primary.

[Tender Branson]

Latest figures (September 29)

8.548.580 registered voters, of which

4.357.663 are Democrats (50.98%)
3.207.728 are Republicans (37.52%)
983.189 are Ind. or from other parties (11.50%)

Compared with the 2008 primary (April 17)

8.328.123 registered voters, of which

4.200.109 are Democrats (50.43%)
3.186.057 are Republicans (38.26%)
941.957 are Ind. or from other parties (11.31%)

Compared with November 2006:

8.182.876 registered voters, of which

3.900.685 are Democrats (47.67%)
3.300.894 are Republicans (40.34%)
981.297 are Ind. or from other parties (11.99%)


Compared with November 2004:

8.366.663 registered voters, of which

3.985.486 are Democrats (47.64%)
3.405.278 are Republicans (40.70%)
975.899 are Ind. or from other parties (11.66%)


Compared with November 2002:

7.835.775 registered voters, of which

3.768.316 are Democrats (48.09%)
3.235.172 are Republicans (41.29%)
832.287 are Ind. or from other parties (10.62%)

Compared with November 2000:

7.781.997 registered voters, of which

3.736.304 are Democrats (48.01%)
3.250.764 are Republicans (41.77%)
794.929 are Ind. or from other parties (10.22%)

[J. J.]

Closed primary and a lot of folks wanted to vote for Clinton, but about a 150,000 voter gain for the Democrats.

[TeePee4Prez]

Closed primary and a lot of folks wanted to vote for Clinton, but about a 150,000 voter gain for the Democrats.

Still doesn't bode well for the GOP.  One thing I noticed in the Northeast- not as many lawn signs for either side, but a lot of Obama signs once I head towards Montco.  I have a feeling turnout will simply be lower in NE Philly.  As of now I'm calling for the GOP to only win the 64th Ward and even that's narrow.

[Keystone Phil]

Closed primary and a lot of folks wanted to vote for Clinton, but about a 150,000 voter gain for the Democrats.

Still doesn't bode well for the GOP.  One thing I noticed in the Northeast- not as many lawn signs for either side, but a lot of Obama signs once I head towards Montco.  I have a feeling turnout will simply be lower in NE Philly.  As of now I'm calling for the GOP to only win the 64th Ward and even that's narrow.

McCain has a clear advantage with signs in the NE (at least in the Far NE). I've seen a grand total of two Obama - Biden signs. Two.

[TeePee4Prez]

Closed primary and a lot of folks wanted to vote for Clinton, but about a 150,000 voter gain for the Democrats.

Still doesn't bode well for the GOP.  One thing I noticed in the Northeast- not as many lawn signs for either side, but a lot of Obama signs once I head towards Montco.  I have a feeling turnout will simply be lower in NE Philly.  As of now I'm calling for the GOP to only win the 64th Ward and even that's narrow.

McCain has a clear advantage with signs in the NE (at least in the Far NE). I've seen a grand total of two Obama - Biden signs. Two.

I noticed a slight pickup in signs.  Then again I've seen more Obama signs in Mayfair of all places, but not outdoing McCain.  Then again in 2004, the Dems looked doomed if you would drive on Ryan Ave between Frankford and Rowland.  Not so much now.  I even noticed Raj beating Schwartz in 2006 on that logic.  Do lawn signs mean much? 

[Keystone Phil]

Closed primary and a lot of folks wanted to vote for Clinton, but about a 150,000 voter gain for the Democrats.

Still doesn't bode well for the GOP.  One thing I noticed in the Northeast- not as many lawn signs for either side, but a lot of Obama signs once I head towards Montco.  I have a feeling turnout will simply be lower in NE Philly.  As of now I'm calling for the GOP to only win the 64th Ward and even that's narrow.

McCain has a clear advantage with signs in the NE (at least in the Far NE). I've seen a grand total of two Obama - Biden signs. Two.

I noticed a slight pickup in signs.  Then again I've seen more Obama signs in Mayfair of all places, but not outdoing McCain.  Then again in 2004, the Dems looked doomed if you would drive on Ryan Ave between Frankford and Rowland.  Not so much now.  I even noticed Raj beating Schwartz in 2006 on that logic.  Do lawn signs mean much? 

Usually signs don't mean much but this year is different. I've never seen this type of enthusiasm. The demands for the McCain - Palin signs are unreal and we're not just talking about them appearing in the typical GOP stronghold that you mentioned. They're everywhere.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The key in the east may be Montgomery County.  It went Democratic in terms of registration for the first time since the Civil War just before the primary.  Hillary won it in the primary.

So Obama is in massive danger of losing there but if he got 2000 more votes he'd have no problems at all?

Montco was actually one of his best counties in the state. Even Phil admits Obama's in no trouble there. Unless you think McCain is going to automatically win half the Hillary voters or something (which you probably do.)

[Keystone Phil]

Montco was actually one of his best counties in the state.

In all fairness, that's not saying much. He was expected to win (and fairly easily, too) but he didn't.

That being said, Montco won't be a problem for Obama.

[Keystone Phil]

In response to this...

I noticed a slight pickup in signs.  Then again I've seen more Obama signs in Mayfair of all places, but not outdoing McCain.  Then again in 2004, the Dems looked doomed if you would drive on Ryan Ave between Frankford and Rowland.  Not so much now.  I even noticed Raj beating Schwartz in 2006 on that logic.  Do lawn signs mean much? 

I had to go down to McCain HQs today to pick up some literature/door knockers. McCain is totally destroying Obama in the swing neighborhoods around the office (in Mayfair). These areas may have a more Republican lean than most neighborhoods in the NE but they haven't been like this for a Republican Presidential candidate in quite some time. McCain is going to win the 55th ward. There's little doubt in my mind about that. That's where their major focus is in the NE.

[Keystone Phil]

Even more good news...

I found out that a bunch of local Democratic committeepeople will be pushing McCain and want to volunteer for door to door as soon as possible, directly undermining the wishes of their ward leader (who is at least nominally for Obama).

[TeePee4Prez]

Even more good news...

I found out that a bunch of local Democratic committeepeople will be pushing McCain and want to volunteer for door to door as soon as possible, directly undermining the wishes of their ward leader (who is at least nominally for Obama).

I drive through a very Republican part of Mayfair frequently and don't see too many McCain signs up.  There might be another part I'm missing here.  How do you explain the polls though?  Can Obama win without Northeast Philly this time?  I always knew it would be a matter of time before the Philly suburbs became more liberal and Democratic than the NE.  This maybe the beginning and is coming sooner than I thought for obvious reasons (see my bottom quote for a hint).  I have to concede the fact I've seen more Obama signs in the suburbs than in the NE.

[Keystone Phil]

Even more good news...

I found out that a bunch of local Democratic committeepeople will be pushing McCain and want to volunteer for door to door as soon as possible, directly undermining the wishes of their ward leader (who is at least nominally for Obama).

I drive through a very Republican part of Mayfair frequently and don't see too many McCain signs up.  There might be another part I'm missing here.  How do you explain the polls though?  Can Obama win without Northeast Philly this time?  I always knew it would be a matter of time before the Philly suburbs became more liberal and Democratic than the NE.  This maybe the beginning and is coming sooner than I thought for obvious reasons (see my bottom quote for a hint).  I have to concede the fact I've seen more Obama signs in the suburbs than in the NE.

Obama must be totally demolishing McCain in the suburbs because he's not strong in the NE.

[TeePee4Prez]

Even more good news...

I found out that a bunch of local Democratic committeepeople will be pushing McCain and want to volunteer for door to door as soon as possible, directly undermining the wishes of their ward leader (who is at least nominally for Obama).

I drive through a very Republican part of Mayfair frequently and don't see too many McCain signs up.  There might be another part I'm missing here.  How do you explain the polls though?  Can Obama win without Northeast Philly this time?  I always knew it would be a matter of time before the Philly suburbs became more liberal and Democratic than the NE.  This maybe the beginning and is coming sooner than I thought for obvious reasons (see my bottom quote for a hint).  I have to concede the fact I've seen more Obama signs in the suburbs than in the NE.

Obama must be totally demolishing McCain in the suburbs because he's not strong in the NE.

According to some polls, he is doing very well in the burbs.  I haven't seen any on the NE, but I have to concede Obama is losing votes from Kerry in the Northeast.  I also haven't seen any change in registration numbers here.  And I will never accuse you of racism because I know where you stand and we do think alike on some things, but don't you think it's sad McCain is getting some votes based on race?  I know for a fact he is and some Dem Committeepeople are voting McCain based on race I'm sure.       

[Keystone Phil]

but don't you think it's sad McCain is getting some votes based on race?

Yes and I've said so several times (for the record).

 

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Absolutely

[TeePee4Prez]

but don't you think it's sad McCain is getting some votes based on race?

Yes and I've said so several times (for the record).

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Absolutely

That said, do you know of the registration numbers out of the Northeast?  I get the sense that  there will be more of a Bradley-Wilder effect east of the Boulevard and in white blue collar neighborhoods "in transition" if you know what I mean.  Overall, I think Obama will lose a substantial portion of voters in the Northeast, BUT it won't be anywhere near as bad as Street-Katz.  I think he'll still pull off some of the more liberal areas, apartment complexes, and  will have decent union support giving him a narrow win in the Wards north of the Frankford Creek cumulatively.  Fox Chase (I'm seeing early signs here) and Mayfair could be ugly for us though. 

[Keystone Phil]

but don't you think it's sad McCain is getting some votes based on race?

Yes and I've said so several times (for the record).

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Absolutely

That said, do you know of the registration numbers out of the Northeast?  I get the sense that  there will be more of a Bradley-Wilder effect east of the Boulevard and in white blue collar neighborhoods "in transition" if you know what I mean.  Overall, I think Obama will lose a substantial portion of voters in the Northeast, BUT it won't be anywhere near as bad as Street-Katz.  I think he'll still pull off some of the more liberal areas, apartment complexes, and  will have decent union support giving him a narrow win in the Wards north of the Frankford Creek cumulatively.  Fox Chase (I'm seeing early signs here) and Mayfair could be ugly for us though. 

Registration breakdown? Not sure.

It's going to be bad for Obama in a lot of areas east of the Boulevard (not just Mayfair).

[TeePee4Prez]

but don't you think it's sad McCain is getting some votes based on race?

Yes and I've said so several times (for the record).

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Absolutely

That said, do you know of the registration numbers out of the Northeast?  I get the sense that  there will be more of a Bradley-Wilder effect east of the Boulevard and in white blue collar neighborhoods "in transition" if you know what I mean.  Overall, I think Obama will lose a substantial portion of voters in the Northeast, BUT it won't be anywhere near as bad as Street-Katz.  I think he'll still pull off some of the more liberal areas, apartment complexes, and  will have decent union support giving him a narrow win in the Wards north of the Frankford Creek cumulatively.  Fox Chase (I'm seeing early signs here) and Mayfair could be ugly for us though. 

Registration breakdown? Not sure.

It's going to be bad for Obama in a lot of areas east of the Boulevard (not just Mayfair).

Even tried looking at Comm. of 70's website.

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

[J. J.]

The key in the east may be Montgomery County.  It went Democratic in terms of registration for the first time since the Civil War just before the primary.  Hillary won it in the primary.

So Obama is in massive danger of losing there but if he got 2000 more votes he'd have no problems at all?

BRTD, it is the margin that he carries it by.  The county was close, but that indicates there are a lot of Democrats who didn't vote for him.  Even if he had barely won it, there would still be a large number of Democrats that didn't vote for him.

I should have some black turnout numbers by 3:00 PM on election day.

[Keystone Phil]

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

East of Frankford is tricky. We have some housing projects and more blacks moving into the lower parts of the NE. That being said, some of the white areas are pretty racist.

Obama stopped at the Mayfair Diner today. I don't know how great of a move that was. I think it actually helped motivate McCain voters (see my comments in my seperate thread on the 2008 board).

There may be some very low turnout in the NE but if there isn't, Obama is going to suffer.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The key in the east may be Montgomery County.  It went Democratic in terms of registration for the first time since the Civil War just before the primary.  Hillary won it in the primary.

So Obama is in massive danger of losing there but if he got 2000 more votes he'd have no problems at all?

BRTD, it is the margin that he carries it by.  The county was close, but that indicates there are a lot of Democrats who didn't vote for him.  Even if he had barely won it, there would still be a large number of Democrats that didn't vote for him.

So? There's a lot of Democrats that didn't vote for him in San Francisco. So what? I doubt people would be saying Hillary would be having problems in Philly if she was the nominee. Hell by this logic Obama should be the favorite in Utah, since he won the primary handily and McCain was absolutely destroyed.

Montco was better for him than the state numbers, so why bother singling it out? You could just point to the state numbers, which would be a ridiculous fallacy, but more logical than singling out Montco as this huge, massive trouble spot for him.

[J. J.]

The key in the east may be Montgomery County.  It went Democratic in terms of registration for the first time since the Civil War just before the primary.  Hillary won it in the primary.

So Obama is in massive danger of losing there but if he got 2000 more votes he'd have no problems at all?

BRTD, it is the margin that he carries it by.  The county was close, but that indicates there are a lot of Democrats who didn't vote for him.  Even if he had barely won it, there would still be a large number of Democrats that didn't vote for him.

So? There's a lot of Democrats that didn't vote for him in San Francisco. So what? I doubt people would be saying Hillary would be having problems in Philly if she was the nominee. Hell by this logic Obama should be the favorite in Utah, since he won the primary handily and McCain was absolutely destroyed.

Montco was better for him than the state numbers, so why bother singling it out? You could just point to the state numbers, which would be a ridiculous fallacy, but more logical than singling out Montco as this huge, massive trouble spot for him.

SF didn't suddenly go Democratic in the primary.  Montco flipped; that's why I've singled it out.  There were a lot of new Democrats and they were not voting for Obama in the primary.

[TeePee4Prez]

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

East of Frankford is tricky. We have some housing projects and more blacks moving into the lower parts of the NE. That being said, some of the white areas are pretty racist.

Obama stopped at the Mayfair Diner today. I don't know how great of a move that was. I think it actually helped motivate McCain voters (see my comments in my seperate thread on the 2008 board).

There may be some very low turnout in the NE but if there isn't, Obama is going to suffer.

At the end of the day, which will win- The Economy or Race?  That's what Northeast Philly boils down to.