Pennsylvania Voter Registration

[Tender Branson]

Registration is now as followed:

DEM - 49,81%
GOP - 38,66%
IND - 11,53%

[Keystone Phil]

It has finally happened. As of yesterday, Montgomery county, PA is now officially a Democratic county - http://www.kyw1060.com/Montco-Swings-from-Red-to-Blue-For-This-Primary/1950555


Oh, and Centre county (home of Penn State's main campus) has made the switch, too.

[Tender Branson]

It has finally happened. As of yesterday, Montgomery county, PA is now officially a Democratic county - http://www.kyw1060.com/Montco-Swings-from-Red-to-Blue-For-This-Primary/1950555


Oh, and Centre county (home of Penn State's main campus) has made the switch, too.

This probably means Democrats are now at more than 50% statewide ...

[Keystone Phil]

It has finally happened. As of yesterday, Montgomery county, PA is now officially a Democratic county - http://www.kyw1060.com/Montco-Swings-from-Red-to-Blue-For-This-Primary/1950555


Oh, and Centre county (home of Penn State's main campus) has made the switch, too.

This probably means Democrats are now at more than 50% statewide ...

Eh, we'll get some people back so I'm expecting the number to stay at about 50% for awhile.

[Mr.Phips]

It has finally happened. As of yesterday, Montgomery county, PA is now officially a Democratic county - http://www.kyw1060.com/Montco-Swings-from-Red-to-Blue-For-This-Primary/1950555


Oh, and Centre county (home of Penn State's main campus) has made the switch, too.

I also heard Bucks county now made the switch as well.  I bet Patrick Murphy is smiling. 

[Keystone Phil]

It has finally happened. As of yesterday, Montgomery county, PA is now officially a Democratic county - http://www.kyw1060.com/Montco-Swings-from-Red-to-Blue-For-This-Primary/1950555


Oh, and Centre county (home of Penn State's main campus) has made the switch, too.

I also heard Bucks county now made the switch as well.  I bet Patrick Murphy is smiling. 

Where did you hear that because I haven't heard it.

[Smash255]

It has finally happened. As of yesterday, Montgomery county, PA is now officially a Democratic county - http://www.kyw1060.com/Montco-Swings-from-Red-to-Blue-For-This-Primary/1950555


Oh, and Centre county (home of Penn State's main campus) has made the switch, too.

I also heard Bucks county now made the switch as well.  I bet Patrick Murphy is smiling. 

Where did you hear that because I haven't heard it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/2-philly-counties-flip-to-democratic/#more-4750

[Smash255]

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/elections/lib/elections/055_voter_registration_statistics/currentstats/currentvotestats.xls

[Keystone Phil]

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

[Smash255]

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Bucks had 10,000 party switchers in the last 4 weeks alone.  Montco was 14,000.  I expected a huge shift, but wow

[bullmoose88]

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Bucks had 10,000 party switchers in the last 4 weeks alone.  Montco was 14,000.  I expected a huge shift, but wow

I wouldn't get too excited either way...1) Many/Most of the switchers will come back, or 2) if they don't its not like they're going to vote any differently.

[Smash255]

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Bucks had 10,000 party switchers in the last 4 weeks alone.  Montco was 14,000.  I expected a huge shift, but wow

I wouldn't get too excited either way...1) Many/Most of the switchers will come back, or 2) if they don't its not like they're going to vote any differently.

Granted, I would say many of these are likely disaffected Republicans who really aren't Republicans anymore, but never changed registration.  I would think that more than people who only switched for the Primary and will switch back.  Regardless these are really some astonishing numbers anyway you slice it.

[bullmoose88]

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Bucks had 10,000 party switchers in the last 4 weeks alone.  Montco was 14,000.  I expected a huge shift, but wow

I wouldn't get too excited either way...1) Many/Most of the switchers will come back, or 2) if they don't its not like they're going to vote any differently.

Granted, I would say many of these are likely disaffected Republicans who really aren't Republicans anymore, but never changed registration. 

True to the omitted portion...But don't underestimate their propensity to vote Republican locally even when they vote democratic nationally...there is still (although less) a negative association with local dems because of Philadelphia.

[Smash255]

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Bucks had 10,000 party switchers in the last 4 weeks alone.  Montco was 14,000.  I expected a huge shift, but wow

I wouldn't get too excited either way...1) Many/Most of the switchers will come back, or 2) if they don't its not like they're going to vote any differently.

Granted, I would say many of these are likely disaffected Republicans who really aren't Republicans anymore, but never changed registration.

True to the omitted portion...But don't underestimate their propensity to vote Republican locally even when they vote democratic nationally...there is still (although less) a negative association with local dems because of Philadelphia.

Possibly, but that may fade as well.  Long Island and the Philly suburbs have mirrored each other quite a bit politically.    Both were GOP pretty much across the board for many years, both then first moved Democratic on the Presidential level, Long Island then moved a bit on the Congressional level and then the local level.  Granted 06 was a real bad year for the GOP on the Congressional level, which obviously benefited the dems a bit more, but the Congressional level has moved Dem in suburban Philly as well.  Even prior to the surge in registration and party switchers for the Dems, the Dems were making grounds in enrollment in suburban Philly, much like has happened on Long Island.   I'm not saying its a carbon copy, but many similarities exist and it seems to be following the same path LI did.

[bullmoose88]

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Bucks had 10,000 party switchers in the last 4 weeks alone.  Montco was 14,000.  I expected a huge shift, but wow

I wouldn't get too excited either way...1) Many/Most of the switchers will come back, or 2) if they don't its not like they're going to vote any differently.

Granted, I would say many of these are likely disaffected Republicans who really aren't Republicans anymore, but never changed registration.

True to the omitted portion...But don't underestimate their propensity to vote Republican locally even when they vote democratic nationally...there is still (although less) a negative association with local dems because of Philadelphia.

Possibly, but that may fade as well.  Long Island and the Philly suburbs have mirrored each other quite a bit politically.    Both were GOP pretty much across the board for many years, both then first moved Democratic on the Presidential level, Long Island then moved a bit on the Congressional level and then the local level.  Granted 06 was a real bad year for the GOP on the Congressional level, which obviously benefited the dems a bit more, but the Congressional level has moved Dem in suburban Philly as well.  Even prior to the surge in registration and party switchers for the Dems, the Dems were making grounds in enrollment in suburban Philly, much like has happened on Long Island.   I'm not saying its a carbon copy, but many similarities exist and it seems to be following the same path LI did.

Except I don't think there such a divide between the city and LI as there is between Philly and the burbs.

Maybe in the 1970s and 1980s when dems ran the show and NYC was pretty crappy, but that's gone...it was sort of okay during rendell in the 90s, but Philly is reverting to its prior form. 

I think that's a big dynamic that you're not taking into account here.

[Smash255]

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

Bucks had 10,000 party switchers in the last 4 weeks alone.  Montco was 14,000.  I expected a huge shift, but wow

I wouldn't get too excited either way...1) Many/Most of the switchers will come back, or 2) if they don't its not like they're going to vote any differently.

Granted, I would say many of these are likely disaffected Republicans who really aren't Republicans anymore, but never changed registration.

True to the omitted portion...But don't underestimate their propensity to vote Republican locally even when they vote democratic nationally...there is still (although less) a negative association with local dems because of Philadelphia.

Possibly, but that may fade as well.  Long Island and the Philly suburbs have mirrored each other quite a bit politically.    Both were GOP pretty much across the board for many years, both then first moved Democratic on the Presidential level, Long Island then moved a bit on the Congressional level and then the local level.  Granted 06 was a real bad year for the GOP on the Congressional level, which obviously benefited the dems a bit more, but the Congressional level has moved Dem in suburban Philly as well.  Even prior to the surge in registration and party switchers for the Dems, the Dems were making grounds in enrollment in suburban Philly, much like has happened on Long Island.   I'm not saying its a carbon copy, but many similarities exist and it seems to be following the same path LI did.

Except I don't think there such a divide between the city and LI as there is between Philly and the burbs.

Maybe in the 1970s and 1980s when dems ran the show and NYC was pretty crappy, but that's gone...it was sort of okay during rendell in the 90s, but Philly is reverting to its prior form. 

I think that's a big dynamic that you're not taking into account here.

That might be true, but when the bleeding starts (as it has) it can be quite hard to stop it.  I'm not suggesting the suburbs will become as Democratic on the local level as they have become on the national level there, but I think you will see more and more changes.  Granted Rendell's case is a bit different from how the typical Philly Democrat is viewed, but the fact that a former Philly mayor put up 65% in Chester and broke 70% in Montco, Bucks and Delaware was something completely unheard of in the past.

[bullmoose88]

I almost wonder if the democrats would be better off letting the GOP get more powerful in Philly (ala NYC), so that there isn't one party to blame when the city, predictably, turns into $hit.

[Keystone Phil]

I almost wonder if the democrats would be better off letting the GOP get more powerful in Philly (ala NYC), so that there isn't one party to blame when the city, predictably, turns into $hit.

Uh, thanks. 

Dems here don't need to worry about being blamed and losing elections. See Mayoral race 2003. Apply that to basically every other problem this city may face.

[TeePee4Prez]

I almost wonder if the democrats would be better off letting the GOP get more powerful in Philly (ala NYC), so that there isn't one party to blame when the city, predictably, turns into $hit.

Interesting points moose.  I kinda thought electing a moderate Republican like Katz in 2003 would help the Democrats in 2004.  I do think Michael Nutter's election won't put the Dems, especially Obama in such as bad light in places like NE or South Philly where Hillary dominated for obvious reasons.  I should say Smash has a good point in that a lot of the GOP voters are really following their true beliefs and voters in the suburban areas tend to be younger than say the Reagan Dems in places like NE Philly or upstate PA who won't bother to switch their registration.  I will give the GOP a ray of hope in that I do find 20-somethings from NE or South Philly more inclined to vote GOP and are more conservative than their suburban counterparts.  Some rich suburban 20-somethings I find extremely liberal for some odd reason going as far as Free Mumia which pissed even me off. 

[Keystone Phil]

I do think Michael Nutter's election won't put the Dems, especially Obama in such as bad light in places like NE or South Philly where Hillary dominated for obvious reasons. 

Nutter doesn't do that but other situations in the area don't help the already explosive racial tensions.

[TeePee4Prez]

I do think Michael Nutter's election won't put the Dems, especially Obama in such as bad light in places like NE or South Philly where Hillary dominated for obvious reasons.

Nutter doesn't do that but other situations in the area don't help the already explosive racial tensions.

Well, the Skerski shooting didn't help Raj as much as I thought it would.  I know.. I know, I'm implying race in that but still.

[Keystone Phil]

I do think Michael Nutter's election won't put the Dems, especially Obama in such as bad light in places like NE or South Philly where Hillary dominated for obvious reasons.

Nutter doesn't do that but other situations in the area don't help the already explosive racial tensions.

Well, the Skerski shooting didn't help Raj as much as I thought it would.  I know.. I know, I'm implying race in that but still.

And you're applying that to a complete joke candidate who had no qualms running a complete joke campaign.

[Tender Branson]

It has finally happened. As of yesterday, Montgomery county, PA is now officially a Democratic county - http://www.kyw1060.com/Montco-Swings-from-Red-to-Blue-For-This-Primary/1950555


Oh, and Centre county (home of Penn State's main campus) has made the switch, too.

This probably means Democrats are now at more than 50% statewide ...

Eh, we'll get some people back ...

Eh, no.

"In the two months since Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, Democrats have added more voters than Republicans in all but five of the state's 67 counties and increased their statewide lead by 40,566 voters by the end of last week.

Republicans have lost nearly 1,500 registered voters since the primary.

The trend is especially pronounced in Philadelphia's suburbs, where Democratic leads acquired in Montgomery and Bucks Counties in the primary season have already grown. In Montgomery County, Democratic Commissioner Joseph M. Hoeffel III reacted with some glee to numbers that showed his party had increased its advantage from 10,001 voters on April 22 to 13,784 as of yesterday.

"It should humble some of the braggarts of the Republican Party," he said, "and confirm that the county is changing."

The continuing Democratic groundswell appears to challenge the notion that the primary voter rolls were distorted by Republican stalwarts who made a temporary switch to affect the Democratic outcome. If Republicans who crossed over to vote in the Democratic primary are returning to the fold, their numbers appear to be subsumed by Democratic gains."

Link

[bullmoose88]

The National Republican Party needs to majorly reorient itself if it wishes to take back the Philly Burbs...

McCain's candidacy may or may not lay the groundwork for that reorientation, but I dont think he's going to cause a major sea change in suburban philly's view of national politics right away.  Sure he may be competitive because of Reagan Democrats, but any sort of lasting effect probably won't be seen in this cycle.

[Smash255]

The National Republican Party needs to majorly reorient itself if it wishes to take back the Philly Burbs...

McCain's candidacy may or may not lay the groundwork for that reorientation, but I dont think he's going to cause a major sea change in suburban philly's view of national politics right away.  Sure he may be competitive because of Reagan Democrats, but any sort of lasting effect probably won't be seen in this cycle.

If this was the McCain of 8 years ago running, maybe you would have some chance at that, but not McCain in his current form.