Democrats: If you lose Florida and Ohio, do you still feel confident of victory?

[Reaganfan]

If Obama is the nominee, I'd give McCain a good shot at winning both Florida and Ohio. Do you still feel confident that the west would turn around enough for Obama to translate into a victory? I know that if Obama wins Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada...he could well translate into a slight electoral vote victory, but my question is that if McCain takes Arizona and the rest of the Republican west...as well as the South, and areas around the midwest of Ohio, Missouri and Indiana...do you really believe that McCain would still lose all three (Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico)?

[Tender Branson]

If Obama is the nominee, I'd give McCain a good shot at winning both Florida and Ohio. Do you still feel confident that the west would turn around enough for Obama to translate into a victory? I know that if Obama wins Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada...he could well translate into a slight electoral vote victory, but my question is that if McCain takes Arizona and the rest of the Republican west...as well as the South, and areas around the midwest of Ohio, Missouri and Indiana...do you really believe that McCain would still lose all three (Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico)?

If the race shapes up to be really close in OH, I would be confident that Obama wins IA, NM and either NV or CO. Note that Obama "just" needs either NV or CO, not both. But I´m talking about 49-49-close in Ohio. Florida doesn´t really matter, it has a trend against the Democrats. I could see Ohio close, and Florida with a 5%+ margin for McCain.

[MODU]

I think they could lose Florida and still have a comfortable shot at winning, as long as they don't lose PA.  However, if they've lost Ohio, then they've already lost FL and PA, and the game will be pretty much over.

[Reaganfan]

I think they could lose Florida and still have a comfortable shot at winning, as long as they don't lose PA.  However, if they've lost Ohio, then they've already lost FL and PA, and the game will be pretty much over.

I just can't see them losing such huge states that are usually good indicators of a 50/50 country (IE: Florida, Ohio) and then have western states that went for George Bush NOT go for John McCain.

[MODU]

I think they could lose Florida and still have a comfortable shot at winning, as long as they don't lose PA.  However, if they've lost Ohio, then they've already lost FL and PA, and the game will be pretty much over.

I just can't see them losing such huge states that are usually good indicators of a 50/50 country (IE: Florida, Ohio) and then have western states that went for George Bush NOT go for John McCain.

That's why I think they can lose Florida but still carry PA and OH.  They are all close to the center as far as voter turnout.  I think in this current match-up, Ohio is leaning more Dem, PA is on the balance, and Florida is leaning Rep.  So as long as the Dems carry OH and PA, they can afford to lose FL if they pick up something in the Great Lakes or midwest areas.  However, they can carry OH and still lose the election if the Reps can claim PA.  And of course, if the Reps get OH, it's all over.

[Reaganfan]

I think they could lose Florida and still have a comfortable shot at winning, as long as they don't lose PA.  However, if they've lost Ohio, then they've already lost FL and PA, and the game will be pretty much over.

I just can't see them losing such huge states that are usually good indicators of a 50/50 country (IE: Florida, Ohio) and then have western states that went for George Bush NOT go for John McCain.

That's why I think they can lose Florida but still carry PA and OH.  They are all close to the center as far as voter turnout.  I think in this current match-up, Ohio is leaning more Dem, PA is on the balance, and Florida is leaning Rep.  So as long as the Dems carry OH and PA, they can afford to lose FL if they pick up something in the Great Lakes or midwest areas.  However, they can carry OH and still lose the election if the Reps can claim PA.  And of course, if the Reps get OH, it's all over.

That's just my theory as of late. If George Bush can win those states...why can't John McCain win AND THEN SOME?

[elcorazon]

I think they could lose Florida and still have a comfortable shot at winning, as long as they don't lose PA.  However, if they've lost Ohio, then they've already lost FL and PA, and the game will be pretty much over.

I just can't see them losing such huge states that are usually good indicators of a 50/50 country (IE: Florida, Ohio) and then have western states that went for George Bush NOT go for John McCain.

That's why I think they can lose Florida but still carry PA and OH.  They are all close to the center as far as voter turnout.  I think in this current match-up, Ohio is leaning more Dem, PA is on the balance, and Florida is leaning Rep.  So as long as the Dems carry OH and PA, they can afford to lose FL if they pick up something in the Great Lakes or midwest areas.  However, they can carry OH and still lose the election if the Reps can claim PA.  And of course, if the Reps get OH, it's all over.

That's just my theory as of late. If George Bush can win those states...why can't John McCain win AND THEN SOME?

it's a good theory, but it forgets a acouple of key points:

1.  It's 4 years later.  The economy is in much worse shape.  The war in Iraq is MORE of a negative this year than it was 4 years ago.
2.  McCain won't be running against Kerry.  Obama appeals to those Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, etc. voters that couldn't stomach Kerry.

Missouri and Virginia are also trending to the dems, methinks, although I doubt Obama could carry either, unless he's also carrying Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[MODU]

That's just my theory as of late. If George Bush can win those states...why can't John McCain win AND THEN SOME?

Bush isn't running (I thought it was just the Dems that didn't have this figured out).  McCain and Bush are two different people, just as Obama/Killary are not like Kerry or Gore.  While they are representing the same partisan parties, their platforms, messages, and charisma are all different, and that will impact how the people vote.

[agcatter]

Can Obama win if he loses Florida and Ohio?  Yes.  Absolutely.  If McCain carries the states Bush carried minus Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada he only has 247 electoral votes - 23 short of the magic 270.  Obama would need to hold all Kerry's states and then it would boil down to the following close Bush states:

Virginia (13)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
Iowa (7)

Obama has a better shot at carrying these states than Clinton (she polls horribly in Colorado for
example).  Interesting that if McCain carried Virginia and Colorado and lost the others, you'd have a 269-269 tie in which Obama would be elected by the House as it is presently constituted.

The irony is that while Obama is stronger than Clinton in those 5 swing states, Clinton is stronger in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and has a better shot at Ohio.

Buckle up people, we are looking at a squeaker either way.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama will probably win  Colorado and Nevada, but if he continues to have scandals broken on him, maybe not. If McCain wins PA, OH, and FL, I don't see how he could still win the election.

[agcatter]

Yes, if Obama loses both Ohio AND Pennsylvania, he would have to run the table with no margin of error.  Unlikely to say the least.

[Brittain33]

Most Dems seem to have already moved Florida into the lean Republican camp and are not counting on it for a victory, since it seems to be more Republican than average.

If we lose Ohio after it went only narrowly for Bush in 2004 AND in 2000, yes, that's a problem. It can be compensated for with solid wins in Iowa and New Mexico and with suburban support in Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia bringing those states over. It is not something I'd like to count on, though.

[Brittain33]

Yes, if Obama loses both Ohio AND Pennsylvania, he would have to run the table with no margin of error.  Unlikely to say the least.

If Obama is the first Democrat to lose Pennsylvania since Michael Dukakis, that is a problem.

If he loses New York or California, it's even worse. I don't see how he can win.

Similarly, if McCain can't carry Tennessee and Georgia, he will have to run the table to win.

[Tender Branson]

Clinton is stronger in ... Michigan.

Not really. Both are currently about tied with McCain there. Maybe McCain is slightly ahead.

[exopolitician]

Im not going to give you the excitement of saying no, but im not going to say yes either. I honestly dont know whats going to happen in November. I do know democrats are still favored with the way the economy is now and how arrogant your candidate is stating "Everything in Iraq is okay, I dont care what people say...". Just because your candidate leads now, 8 months before November with no real democratic nominee in sight doesnt mean its going to remain that way.

[agcatter]

I think the point is that it will be very close either way.   McCain has 227 electors solidly in the bag regardless of what happens.  That's his absolute worst case scenario even without Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada etc.  There will be no electoral landslide either way regardless of what happens with the economy or anything else.  Democrats have a similar block of immovable electoral votes.  Anyone on either side who crows about winning this thing is talking trash with no basis of fact.

[Reaganfan]

Please quit saying Virginia. Infact...if you guys quit about Virginia, I'll quit about Minnesota.

[Brittain33]

Please quit saying Virginia. Infact...if you guys quit about Virginia, I'll quit about Minnesota.

Why quit talking about Minnesota? I think it's unlikely, but it could happen.

Pennsylvania, on the other hand, I can't promise to stop harping on.

[jesmo]

All I have to say is this; Those who think that the 2004 and 2000 maps will neccessarily continue into 2008 are fooling themselves.

And no, Obama will not defeat McCain this November under ANY circumstances. I gaurentee that. Only the angel, Hillary Clinton, can.

[exopolitician]

All I have to say is this; Those who think that the 2004 and 2000 maps will neccessarily continue into 2008 are fooling themselves.

And no, Obama will not defeat McCain this November under ANY circumstances. I gaurentee that. Only the angel, Hillary Clinton, can.

I wish to borrow the magic cyrstal ball that you are using to see into the future. Im curious to view other events in the distant future besides the upcoming election.

[elcorazon]

Please quit saying Virginia. Infact...if you guys quit about Virginia, I'll quit about Minnesota.

I think both Virginia and Minnesota are in play.

Minnesota is a strong lean dem.  Virginia is a strong lean rep.  Either could swing with a fairly small victory by the trailing side.

[Smash255]

Please quit saying Virginia. Infact...if you guys quit about Virginia, I'll quit about Minnesota.

The Dems have a MUCH better chance of winning VA than the GOP does of winning Minnesota.

In response to your original question, yes the Dems can win without OH.  CO, IA, NM, NV are all states Obama should do well in.  
Regarding your comment about if Bush beat Kerry there why McCain could lose in a 50/50 type election.  Well these states fit the following

1.  Stronger Obama appeal compared to Kerry
2.  trending Democrat
3.  Both

[jesmo]

All I have to say is this; Those who think that the 2004 and 2000 maps will neccessarily continue into 2008 are fooling themselves.

And no, Obama will not defeat McCain this November under ANY circumstances. I gaurentee that. Only the angel, Hillary Clinton, can.

I wish to borrow the magic cyrstal ball that you are using to see into the future. Im curious to view other events in the distant future besides the upcoming election.

I have some things to do, but I will show it to you later.

[exopolitician]

All I have to say is this; Those who think that the 2004 and 2000 maps will neccessarily continue into 2008 are fooling themselves.

And no, Obama will not defeat McCain this November under ANY circumstances. I gaurentee that. Only the angel, Hillary Clinton, can.

I wish to borrow the magic cyrstal ball that you are using to see into the future. Im curious to view other events in the distant future besides the upcoming election.

I have some things to do, but I will show it to you later.

Uhg, I cant wait that longgg!

[Brittain33]

The Dems have a MUCH better chance of winning VA than the GOP does of winning Minnesota.

I'm reluctant to believe that (on the Virginia end) because we keep seeing Virginia overpoll Democratic in federal races and then not come through in the end. Much like NJ. I think the situation in Virginia is changing rapidly because NoVa has shifted so much, so quickly, but the starting point was so far from the mid-point that it's hard to say Democrats can reach that 50%.