NC-Rasmussen: Perdue, Moore would beat McCrory, Smith

[Tender Branson]

Monday, March 24, 2008

Beverly Perdue (D) - 45%
Pat McCrory (R) - 42%

Beverly Perdue (D) - 51%
Fred Smith (R) - 33%

Richard Moore (D) - 42%
Pat McCrory (R) - 40%

Richard Moore (D) - 45%
Fred Smith (R) - 34%

Perdue’s numbers are 51% favorable and 34% unfavorable. Moore earns positive feedback from 51% of voters while 26% gave him a positive rating. McCrory is viewed favorably by 49% of North Carolina voters and unfavorably by 32%. Smith is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 34%.

Forty-three percent (43%) of North Carolina voters gave current Governor Mike Easley a good or excellent rating. Another 37% give him a fair rating, while 19% rate his job as poor.

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on March 20, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link

[Nutmeg]

Both within MOE when up against McCrory, though.

[Adlai Stevenson]

According to a Public Policy Polling (poll) Moore is only just behind Perdue in the Democratic Primary now after a negative ad campaign.  It is noticeable that his approvals are better than hers. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

McCrory takes this in November.

[auburntiger]

McCrory takes this in November.

I certainly hope so. He seems to be a popular mayor in Charlotte which is exploding population wise. We need more GOP governors out there. Until this year, we've had governors become presidents for over 30 years (minus H.W. Bush)

[StateBoiler]

McCrory takes this in November.

Doesn't have a chance in hell. 10% of the state always vote Republican for President and always vote Democrat for Governor, and it's those 10% that decide who wins every state election, the opinion of the other 90% is irrelevant. Take a look at the last 4 presidential/gubernatorial elections.

2004:
G.W. Bush (Rep) 56.0%, Kerry (Dem) 43.6%, Badnarik (Lib) 0.4%
Easley (Dem) 55.6%, Ballantine (Rep) 42.9%, Howe (Lib) 1.5%

12% of the state voted for Bush and then Easley. So 21% of Bush voters voted for Easley.

2000:
G.W. Bush (Rep) 56.0%, Gore (Dem) 43.2%, Browne (Lib) 0.4%, Buchanan (Ref) 0.3%
Easley (Dem) 52.0%, Vinroot (Rep) 46.3%, Howe (Lib) 1.5%, Schell (Ref) 0.3%

9% of the state voted for Bush and then Easley. So 16% of Bush voters voted for Easley.

1996:
Dole (Rep) 48.7%, Clinton (Dem) 44.0%, Perot (Ref) 6.7%, Browne (Lib) 0.4%, Other 0.2%
Hunt (Dem) 56.0%, Hayes (Rep) 42.8%, Yost (Lib) 0.7%, Van Witt (NL) 0.6%

At a minimum, 6% of the state voted for Dole and then Hunt. More likely number of around 10%. That equates to a range of between 12% and 21% of Dole voters voted for Hunt.

1992:
G.H.W. Bush (Rep) 43.4%, Clinton (Dem) 42.7%, Perot (Indy) 13.7%, Other 0.2%
Hunt (Dem) 52.7%, Gardner (Rep) 43.2%, McLaughlin (Lib) 4.1%

Hard to determine the number of floor-crossers due to Perot's presence, but Bush still outperformed the Republican nominee for governor despite another major candidate in his race that he lost votes to in Perot.

[Josh/Devilman88]

McCrory could win this Nov, but I don't see it happing.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Latest poll has McCrory 6% ahead.

[Mr.Phips]

The only thing that could save Perdue at this point is Barack Obama bringing out a huge black turnout. 

[Sam Spade]

Interesting to see the Republicans nominate (what looks like) a fairly strong candidate for this position, if any.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Interesting to see the Republicans nominate (what looks like) a fairly strong candidate for this position, if any.

They were smart for a change and lucky that Fred Smith dropped out instead of going for a runoff. He was the "conservative" in the race to McCrory's moderate stances. I think McCrory only had 47% in the primary to Smith's 37%, but Smith dropped out.