How would Canadian Provinces vote in McCain vs Obama?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

also, Labour isn't really socialist anymore, but I think everyone knows that.

Either Labour is Socialist now or it was never really Socialist. The goals of Labour-in-government now are more-or-less the same (adjusting for changes to society, the economy and various global stuff) as Labour-in-government in the '60's and '70's.

[Јas]

Using polls to try to extrapolate how American candidates would do in Canada is almost as ridiculous as trying the same for Canadian or other international candidates in America. 

For an example - in 2005, Tony Blair probably would have won Utah even though his Party describes itself as "socialist"

McCain the Canadian war hero from Edmonton would probably do as well as any other Conservative and Obama the MP from Montreal would probably do as well as any other Liberal.  The end.

That's a good point: people tend to evaluate foreign polticians based on their foreign policy ideas and percieved attitudes towards their country.

also, Labour isn't really socialist anymore, but I think everyone knows that.

Slightly different when considering America though, compare the amount of coverage of US politics and political issues in the UK and vice versa. The average Briton will know more about American politics than the other way round. Similarly one can say the same for just about every other country on earth.

Which isn't to say that you can read really anything much at all into polls such as these, but still...

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

It's actually similar to Manitoba. Regina is like a mini-Winnipeg. Don't forget, SK elected the first socialist government in North America under the great Tommy Douglas

You are being intellectually dishonest with that one. The CCF's [Cooperative Commonwealth Federation for the uninitiated] base was in the rural areas, as was true of all of the other, earlier leftist movements (United Farmers, Progressives). It wasn't until the 1980s that the NDP's base in Saskatchewan became the cities.

In the end, McCain has no chance in Canada. He wins Alberta, maybe Saskatchewan and probably PEI, N&L and New Brunswick (those are something of a guess). Obama wins the rest, except possibly losing Manitoba. But only Ontario and Quebec would matter, and they'd probably vote for a rock before McCain.

The CCF did well in the cities, too Verily, but that's besides the point. I never said they didn't do well in the rural areas.

And there's no way in hell McCain would win any province. The media here has pretty much ignored the Republican campaign.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

It's actually similar to Manitoba. Regina is like a mini-Winnipeg. Don't forget, SK elected the first socialist government in North America under the great Tommy Douglas

You are being intellectually dishonest with that one. The CCF's [Cooperative Commonwealth Federation for the uninitiated] base was in the rural areas, as was true of all of the other, earlier leftist movements (United Farmers, Progressives). It wasn't until the 1980s that the NDP's base in Saskatchewan became the cities.

In the end, McCain has no chance in Canada. He wins Alberta, maybe Saskatchewan and probably PEI, N&L and New Brunswick (those are something of a guess). Obama wins the rest, except possibly losing Manitoba. But only Ontario and Quebec would matter, and they'd probably vote for a rock before McCain.

The CCF did well in the cities, too Verily, but that's besides the point. I never said they didn't do well in the rural areas.

And there's no way in hell McCain would win any province. The media here has pretty much ignored the Republican campaign.

I think he'd at least win Alberta.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

It's actually similar to Manitoba. Regina is like a mini-Winnipeg. Don't forget, SK elected the first socialist government in North America under the great Tommy Douglas

You are being intellectually dishonest with that one. The CCF's [Cooperative Commonwealth Federation for the uninitiated] base was in the rural areas, as was true of all of the other, earlier leftist movements (United Farmers, Progressives). It wasn't until the 1980s that the NDP's base in Saskatchewan became the cities.

In the end, McCain has no chance in Canada. He wins Alberta, maybe Saskatchewan and probably PEI, N&L and New Brunswick (those are something of a guess). Obama wins the rest, except possibly losing Manitoba. But only Ontario and Quebec would matter, and they'd probably vote for a rock before McCain.

The CCF did well in the cities, too Verily, but that's besides the point. I never said they didn't do well in the rural areas.

And there's no way in hell McCain would win any province. The media here has pretty much ignored the Republican campaign.

I think he'd at least win Alberta.

no! Why do people keep thinking this? Alberta is much more aligned with the Democrats than the Republicans, in fact it fits in with the Dems more than any other province (all other provinces being much to the left of the Dems)

[Stranger in a strange land]

FWIW, is this site capable for making election maps for countries other than the US? If not, is there a Canadian election calculator somewhere? (I doubt there would be since they don't use the EC, but just wondering...)

[ottermax]

FWIW, is this site capable for making election maps for countries other than the US? If not, is there a Canadian election calculator somewhere? (I doubt there would be since they don't use the EC, but just wondering...)

Perhaps you could calculate one. It wouldn't be too difficult as long as you know how to apportion electoral votes. However it would make elections rather pointless in Canada because they would not give any vote to huge numbers of people in Ontario and Quebec, and there wouldn't be any way to win without Ontario probably.

[Stranger in a strange land]

FWIW, is this site capable for making election maps for countries other than the US? If not, is there a Canadian election calculator somewhere? (I doubt there would be since they don't use the EC, but just wondering...)

Perhaps you could calculate one. It wouldn't be too difficult as long as you know how to apportion electoral votes. However it would make elections rather pointless in Canada because they would not give any vote to huge numbers of people in Ontario and Quebec, and there wouldn't be any way to win without Ontario probably.

Here's my crack at it:

Ontatio and Quebec have 39 and 23 percent of the population respectively. Ontario by itself would give you more than 1/3 of the EV. Ontario and together Quebec have a commanding majority of the population. For a US-style EC system to work, they'd have to be split into smaller provinces.

If Canadian provinces were US states and had congressional seats of approximately 625,000 each, here's how the EV distribution would break down roughly:

Ontario: 23
Quebec: 14
BC 9
Alberta 8
Manitoba 4
Saskatchewan 4
Nova Scoita 3
New Brunswick 3
Newfoundland 3
PEI + Territories 3

or if Canada in its current form used the EC based on number of MPs:

Ontario: 106
Quebec: 75
BC 36
Alberta 28
Manitoba 14
Saskatchewan 14
Nova Scoita 11
New Brunswick 10
Newfoundland 7
PEI 4
Territories 1 each.

Source: wikipedia

[Hatman 🍁]

Senate + House Seats?

NL: 13
PE: 8
NS: 21
NB: 20
QC: 99
ON: 130
MB: 20
SK: 20
AB: 34
BC: 42
YT: 2
NT: 2
NU: 2

(2006 results)
Liberals: 196
Conservatives: 116
Bloc Quebecois: 99
NDP: 2

LOL! Well, it would go to the House to decide!

[Stranger in a strange land]

Senate + House Seats?

NL: 13
PE: 8
NS: 21
NB: 20
QC: 99
ON: 130
MB: 20
SK: 20
AB: 34
BC: 42
YT: 2
NT: 2
NU: 2

(2006 results)
Liberals: 196
Conservatives: 116
Bloc Quebecois: 99
NDP: 2

LOL! Well, it would go to the House to decide!

in that case I think either:
a. the Bloc would merge or coalition with one of the other parties
b. Canada would adopt some sort of 2-party system
c. power would remain largely vested in Parliament, which would continue to elect the leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps, although I think people would be more willing to vote for the NDP, considering the personal popularity of Layton is quite high compared to that of Harper and Dion (when compared to what their parties are polling at).  It's quite frequent of NDP leaders actually. I'm quite confident, if the 1988 election were a presidential race, Ed Broadbent would have won.

[ottermax]

Canada would have to have runoff style elections. First Past the Post would disenfranchise most left-wing voters.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada would have to have runoff style elections. First Past the Post would disenfranchise most left-wing voters.

And it doesn't now? Let's remember though, the Liberals aren't left wing, and neither is the Green Party

[Stranger in a strange land]

Canada would have to have runoff style elections. First Past the Post would disenfranchise most left-wing voters.

There's a theory that first past the post inevitably leads to a 2 party system, so I suspect some of the left/leftish/center-left parties (ie the Liberals, NDP, some of the greens, and a few members of the BQ) might merge.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada would have to have runoff style elections. First Past the Post would disenfranchise most left-wing voters.

There's a theory that first past the post inevitably leads to a 2 party system, so I suspect some of the left/leftish/center-left parties (ie the Liberals, NDP, some of the greens, and a few members of the BQ) might merge.

The opposite has happened in Canada. It used to be a 2 party system, and it has diverged from it. I think in general you're right, but Canada is a very complicated country politically.

[Person Man]

From what I read in a McClellan's from 2005 was that difference in the Demographics between Canada in the U.S. is that in the U.S., about 30% of the population is fundie. In Canada, that number is about 8%. From what I read from other sources, WFB, Wikipedia, magazines and sociological sources, I would say that a typical 50-50 election in the U.S. would break about 65-35 in Canada due to the absence of fundies and the power they generate for big business.