How would Canadian Provinces vote in McCain vs Obama?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Just for fun ;-)

British Columbia: Strong Obama
Alberta: Tossup/Lean McCain
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean Obama
Ontario: Ultra-strong Obama
Quebec: Obama, but not sure how much
New Brunswick: lean Obama
Newfoundland: it's basically the West Virginia of Canada, it's poor and socially conservative compared with the rest of the country, but I don't know if racial issues would be a factor here on such a white island. I'm gonna go with tossup/lean McCain.
Nova Scotia: lean Obama
Prince Edward Island: no idea

Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut: wouldn't be states because they wouldn't meet any reasonable population threshhold. In fact even together they probably wouldn't.

[ottermax]

Everyone would vote for Obama. Compared to America, Canada's economy is quite swell. Quebec is like Vermont politically, but is usually overshadowed by the separatism.

Newfoundland would be interesting, but I don't think they would vote for McCain although he fits the province well.

PEI would probably vote for Obama since they are so loyal to the Liberals, I guess they would be as loyal to Democrats.

The Territories would probably be overwhelmingly Obama.

Either way, the national popular vote would be something like 60-40 Obama.

[CultureKing]

British Columbia: Strong Obama
Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain
Ontario: strong Obama
Quebec: Strong Obama
New Brunswick: Strong Obama
Newfoundland: I am going to say Lean Obama... not sure though
Nova Scotia: Moderate Obama
Prince Edward Island: Strong Obama

So yeah, Obama would destroy McCain in Canada.

[Meeker]

On Canadian Idol, the black contestants always get voted off first.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)

no way Alberta is more conservative than Texas. There are similarities between the two sure. Alberta is definately more conservative than the rest of Canada, but not more than Texas.

[CultureKing]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)

no way Alberta is more conservative than Texas. There are similarities between the two sure. Alberta is definately more conservative than the rest of Canada, but not more than Texas.

At least Texas has pockets of liberalism such as in the south and in the cities. In Alberta they have what? One labour rep.?

[bgwah]

Canada was overwhelmingly pro-Kerry. A July 2004 poll by Ipsos-Reid found that 60% of Canadians favoured Kerry and only 22% of them George W. Bush. The remainder were either undecided or supporters of third-party candidates. In the winter of 2004 another poll found that only 15% of Canadians felt that Bush was doing a good job as president. Even Canada's most conservative province, Alberta, was 60% in favour of Kerry. The area with the strongest support for Bush were the Atlantic provinces, which only broke 51% for Kerry. Kerry's strongest support was in Quebec where from 69 to 71% of the population picked him over Bush. Only in New Brunswick did Bush lead, with 51%. An international poll of ten nations conducted in September and October again found 60% of Canadians would vote for Kerry with 20% backing Bush.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_and_the_2004_United_States_presidential_election

[Hatman 🍁]

I think a poll between the 3 candidates had McCain in single digits, so Obama would probably sweep the country with 80-90% of the vote.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I think a poll between the 3 candidates had McCain in single digits, so Obama would probably sweep the country with 80-90% of the vote.

Even in Alberta? Wow.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think a poll between the 3 candidates had McCain in single digits, so Obama would probably sweep the country with 80-90% of the vote.

Even in Alberta? Wow.

Alberta may be Conservative, but it's not Republican Bush actually was most popular in Atlantic Canada. Go figure.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think a poll between the 3 candidates had McCain in single digits, so Obama would probably sweep the country with 80-90% of the vote.

Even in Alberta? Wow.

Alberta may be Conservative, but it's not Republican Bush actually was most popular in Atlantic Canada. Go figure.

I have a feeling it would be Republican if it were in the US though.

Also, if Bush was at 20% with another 20% undecided in 2004, that would mean McCain would have a floor of about 30% in Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think a poll between the 3 candidates had McCain in single digits, so Obama would probably sweep the country with 80-90% of the vote.

Even in Alberta? Wow.

Alberta may be Conservative, but it's not Republican Bush actually was most popular in Atlantic Canada. Go figure.

I have a feeling it would be Republican if it were in the US though.

Also, if Bush was at 20% with another 20% undecided in 2004, that would mean McCain would have a floor of about 30% in Canada.

Probably. I suppose, when given three choices, Canadians prefer one of the Democrats over McCain by a 90-10 ratio, but in a head to head race, McCain would do much better.

And there's no question Alberta would vote Republican if it had a long history of being in the US. It's a lot like Montana, except with large cities.

[Frodo]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

[ottermax]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

No big cities.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

It's actually similar to Manitoba. Regina is like a mini-Winnipeg. Don't forget, SK elected the first socialist government in North America under the great Tommy Douglas

[Frodo]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

No big cities.

So Conservatives are mostly clustered in cities in the western plains provinces?  I wasn't aware of that.  I thought that like Republicans here in the United States, that they would be most dominant in the rural areas and in outlying suburbs.   

It's actually similar to Manitoba. Regina is like a mini-Winnipeg. Don't forget, SK elected the first socialist government in North America under the great Tommy Douglas

So you're saying it's kind of like Minnesota, but with a smaller version of the Twin Cities. 

[Hatman 🍁]

No, cities in Canada are more left wing than rural areas, it's just like the US. Regina and Saskatoon both vote NDP while the rural areas vote for the right wing Saskatchewan Party. It's a bit more complicated on the federal level though, with 3 parties and gerrymandering.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How would they vote in the Hillary/Obama primary?

[Hatman 🍁]

How would they vote in the Hillary/Obama primary?

BC, Alberta, Ontario: Obama
everything else: Clinton

[ottermax]

Hillary/Obama:

Obama would win BC, Alberta, the Territories and Ontario.

Hillary would win the Maritimes (especially Newfounland, New Brunswick, and P.E.I.).

It would be pretty close in the Prairies, but I guess Obama would win Saskatchewan and a very close Manitoba.

Quebec is like Puerto Rico. I guess they would vote for Clinton, but... they would easily vote for Obama...

I think Obama would be more passionate about his social democratic views in Canada than in America.

[Verily]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

It's actually similar to Manitoba. Regina is like a mini-Winnipeg. Don't forget, SK elected the first socialist government in North America under the great Tommy Douglas

You are being intellectually dishonest with that one. The CCF's [Cooperative Commonwealth Federation for the uninitiated] base was in the rural areas, as was true of all of the other, earlier leftist movements (United Farmers, Progressives). It wasn't until the 1980s that the NDP's base in Saskatchewan became the cities.

In the end, McCain has no chance in Canada. He wins Alberta, maybe Saskatchewan and probably PEI, N&L and New Brunswick (those are something of a guess). Obama wins the rest, except possibly losing Manitoba. But only Ontario and Quebec would matter, and they'd probably vote for a rock before McCain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think Obama would be more passionate about his social democratic views in Canada than in America.

Well if that's the case he'll take less than 20% of the vote...

[Stranger in a strange land]

How would they vote in the Hillary/Obama primary?

BC, Alberta, Ontario: Obama
everything else: Clinton

why? Obama did well in the prarie states in the US. I expect he'd do just as well if not better in MB and SK. 

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Using polls to try to extrapolate how American candidates would do in Canada is almost as ridiculous as trying the same for Canadian or other international candidates in America. 

For an example - in 2005, Tony Blair probably would have won Utah even though his Party describes itself as "socialist"

McCain the Canadian war hero from Edmonton would probably do as well as any other Conservative and Obama the MP from Montreal would probably do as well as any other Liberal.  The end.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Using polls to try to extrapolate how American candidates would do in Canada is almost as ridiculous as trying the same for Canadian or other international candidates in America. 

For an example - in 2005, Tony Blair probably would have won Utah even though his Party describes itself as "socialist"

McCain the Canadian war hero from Edmonton would probably do as well as any other Conservative and Obama the MP from Montreal would probably do as well as any other Liberal.  The end.

That's a good point: people tend to evaluate foreign polticians based on their foreign policy ideas and percieved attitudes towards their country.

also, Labour isn't really socialist anymore, but I think everyone knows that.