Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Gustaf]

Clinton at 69% in Clinton.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Ron Paul with 71% in Armstrong County! (Methinks another reporting error.)

Only 13% reporting

[Verily]

Very early Bucks numbers look like very early Philly numbers.

[J. J.]

Delco 5% reporting, Obama by 2.  My guess is PA-2.

[Hash]

I hope Paul wins a county. It'd be funny.

[War on Want]

I am actually fairly pleased with these numbers, Clinton will barely gain any delegates from this.

[Verily]

Ron Paul with 71% in Armstrong County! (Methinks another reporting error.)

Only 13% reporting

C'mon, you're telling me that you think it remotely likely that Ron Paul got 71% at any voting station, nationwide, let alone 13% of them in a poor, rural county?

[Torie]

My wild guess is that Obama will end up with 61% in Philly. Obviously that would be a disappointment for him.

[bergie72]

I was expecting Luzerne to be much better for Obama. What happened?

You just don't understand Luzerne.

I knew it would be for Clinton and expected it to vote for her at around 60% but not 75%....

Isn't CLinton's family from that area - besides, ethnic Catholics...

Clinton's family's from Scranton, but they're very similar.

Current numbers for Luzerne County:
    (WITH 113 OF 189 PRECINCTS COUNTED 59.79%)
 Hillary Clinton  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     30,077   75.85        30,077             0
 Barack Obama  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .      9,456   23.85         9,456             0
 WRITE-IN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .        119     .30           119             0

Hilary's family is from Scranton, but it's only 20 minutes away from the more populated northern part of Luzerne County, so it makes sense.

[Torie]

Delaware County evenly split with 5% of the votes in.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

55%-45%

[Gustaf]

So, is anyone ready to estimate who is strongest in whatever is outstanding? Seems to be a lot of stuff left for both of them?

[ChrisFromNJ]

John King is saying that Hillary and her campaign will start making the Dukakis argument about Obama. I think that would be a particularly good strategy. These numbers in PA are frightening. It looks like Obama won't even come close.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Delco 5% reporting, Obama by 2.  My guess is PA-2.

There is no part of PA-2 in Delaware County.

[Person Man]

I'm going to put Lily to bed...I'll be right back.

[J. J.]

Clinton is winning some of the western and T counties by 30 to 40 points.  At 28% reporting, she has 45% in Phila.

[Person Man]

John King is saying that Hillary and her campaign will start making the Dukakis argument about Obama. I think that would be a particularly good strategy. These numbers in PA are frightening. It looks like Obama won't even come close.

what was that?

[J. J.]

Sorry, I meant PA-1.  She may carry PA-1.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama still above 70% in Dauphin with 8% in.

[Verily]

So, is anyone ready to estimate who is strongest in whatever is outstanding? Seems to be a lot of stuff left for both of them?

Clearly the Clinton areas in Philadelphia reported first, and Obama will improve there and in Bucks and Delaware Counties. (Montgomery County has nothing in yet.) Clinton has Lackawanna County and a lot of Luzerne, which should both be very strong for her, plus the Pittsburgh area. Obama also has the Harrisburg area, most of which hasn't reported yet, and he'll do well in some parts of the Pittsburgh area also though I would predict Clinton to win all of the counties there.

Generally, I think there are slightly more Clinton areas in than Obama ones. This is a bit subjective, especially as some counties are not remotely homogeneous (esp. the Philly area ones), and perhaps subject to opinion.

[Hash]

Why is CNN saying Clinton wins 28 delegates in PA?

[Frodo]

Sorry, I have to ask: who is winning PA 13? 

[Torie]

Scranton 78-22 Clinton with 6% in.

[War on Want]

I am going to say that Scranton and Wilkes-Barre did put the bullet in Obama. If Luzerne voting 55-45 Clinton, the race would almost be tied.

[ChrisFromNJ]

John King is saying that Hillary and her campaign will start making the Dukakis argument about Obama. I think that would be a particularly good strategy. These numbers in PA are frightening. It looks like Obama won't even come close.

what was that?

Dukakis could not hold onto the working class white vote in the general. It looks like Obama may have the same problem.