Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Quit the spam guys. It's already annoying enough to post to this thread since you keep getting messages about posts that have been posted already, we don't need to make it even worse with meaningless crap.

Sorry, I forgot, we are just undereducated typical white people who have no right to this thread.

We'll leave it to you elites to tell us what is best for us.

WTF? I wasn't even referring to you. I was instead talking to BushOklahoma and Angry Weasel who were basically spamming just to increase this thread's post count.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Do you think they'll be anal probes in 2031?

In 2031, McCain will be 94 and Obama will be 69.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Doing some quick numbers here about the CDs in the less populated areas:
CD3 - Clinton 3-2
CD4 - The gerrymander is impossible out here, but it could well be Clinton 4-1, definitely 3-2
CD5 - There simply isn't enough rural to get it past 2-2 (62.5%) I think.
CD8 - Clinton 4-3
CD9 - Clinton 2-1 obviously
CD10 - Clinton 3-1
CD11 - Clinton 4-1
CD12 - Clinton 4-1
CD15 - Clinton 3-2
CD16 - Not enough for Obama to get out of 2-2, I suspect (still early)
CD17 - Reading won't help Clinton get enough past Dauphin - 2-2
CD18 - See CD4. Either Clinton 3-2 or 4-1
CD19 - Tied 2-2

CD6 will undoubtedly be 3-3.  Without a good breakdown, I can't say anything on CD7 or CD13.
CD1 will be 4-3 Obama and CD2 will be 7-2 Obama.
CD14, I don't know.  Who knows the gerrymander.

Obama has won PA-14.

http://www.county.allegheny.pa.us/elect/200804pri/pripres08.asp

[12th Doctor]

Quit the spam guys. It's already annoying enough to post to this thread since you keep getting messages about posts that have been posted already, we don't need to make it even worse with meaningless crap.

Sorry, I forgot, we are just undereducated typical white people who have no right to this thread.

We'll leave it to you elites to tell us what is best for us.

WTF? I wasn't even referring to you. I was instead talking to BushOklahoma and Angry Weasel who were basically spamming just to increase this thread's post count.

Agitating is fun.

[Person Man]

Quit the spam guys. It's already annoying enough to post to this thread since you keep getting messages about posts that have been posted already, we don't need to make it even worse with meaningless crap.

Sorry, I forgot, we are just undereducated typical white people who have no right to this thread.

We'll leave it to you elites to tell us what is best for us.

WTF? I wasn't even referring to you. I was instead talking to BushOklahoma and Angry Weasel who were basically spamming just to increase this thread's post count.

Aw, common, God....whose my creampuff?

Do you think they'll be anal probes in 2031?

In 2031, McCain will be 94 and Obama will be 69.

Do you think they'll be cool stuff in 2031?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Quit the spam guys. It's already annoying enough to post to this thread since you keep getting messages about posts that have been posted already, we don't need to make it even worse with meaningless crap.

Sorry, I forgot, we are just undereducated typical white people who have no right to this thread.

We'll leave it to you elites to tell us what is best for us.

WTF? I wasn't even referring to you. I was instead talking to BushOklahoma and Angry Weasel who were basically spamming just to increase this thread's post count.

Aw, common, God....whose my creampuff?

Alright, ignore time...

[Joe Biden 2020]

Doing some quick numbers here about the CDs in the less populated areas:
CD3 - Clinton 3-2
CD4 - The gerrymander is impossible out here, but it could well be Clinton 4-1, definitely 3-2
CD5 - There simply isn't enough rural to get it past 2-2 (62.5%) I think.
CD8 - Clinton 4-3
CD9 - Clinton 2-1 obviously
CD10 - Clinton 3-1
CD11 - Clinton 4-1
CD12 - Clinton 4-1
CD15 - Clinton 3-2
CD16 - Not enough for Obama to get out of 2-2, I suspect (still early)
CD17 - Reading won't help Clinton get enough past Dauphin - 2-2
CD18 - See CD4. Either Clinton 3-2 or 4-1
CD19 - Tied 2-2

CD6 will undoubtedly be 3-3.  Without a good breakdown, I can't say anything on CD7 or CD13.
CD1 will be 4-3 Obama and CD2 will be 7-2 Obama.
CD14, I don't know.  Who knows the gerrymander.

What would you say the delegate apportionment look like going into tomorrow morning?

[Person Man]

Quit the spam guys. It's already annoying enough to post to this thread since you keep getting messages about posts that have been posted already, we don't need to make it even worse with meaningless crap.

Sorry, I forgot, we are just undereducated typical white people who have no right to this thread.

We'll leave it to you elites to tell us what is best for us.

WTF? I wasn't even referring to you. I was instead talking to BushOklahoma and Angry Weasel who were basically spamming just to increase this thread's post count.

Aw, common, God....whose my creampuff?

Alright, ignore time...

NOOOOOOOO!!! Ok! I'll stop....hey.... I thought you hated censorship...

[12th Doctor]

Wow... CNN is a little out of touch there.  Lawrence and Beaver County are "rural"?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Quit the spam guys. It's already annoying enough to post to this thread since you keep getting messages about posts that have been posted already, we don't need to make it even worse with meaningless crap.

Sorry, I forgot, we are just undereducated typical white people who have no right to this thread.

We'll leave it to you elites to tell us what is best for us.

WTF? I wasn't even referring to you. I was instead talking to BushOklahoma and Angry Weasel who were basically spamming just to increase this thread's post count.

Aw, common, God....whose my creampuff?

Do you think they'll be anal probes in 2031?

In 2031, McCain will be 94 and Obama will be 69.

Do you think they'll be cool stuff in 2031?

McCain might be dead by then, so, then, yes, he would be cool -- literally

[Verily]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Delaware is basically all in even though CNN isn't reporting it yet, and Obama took it over 55%.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Quit the spam guys. It's already annoying enough to post to this thread since you keep getting messages about posts that have been posted already, we don't need to make it even worse with meaningless crap.

Sorry, I forgot, we are just undereducated typical white people who have no right to this thread.

We'll leave it to you elites to tell us what is best for us.

WTF? I wasn't even referring to you. I was instead talking to BushOklahoma and Angry Weasel who were basically spamming just to increase this thread's post count.

Sorry, I'm just in a very good mood tonight and in a post-happy mood.  I'll try to refrain.

[Flying Dog]

Delaware is basically all in even though CNN isn't reporting it yet, and Obama took it over 55%.

Maybe that'll bump Clinton down to 54%.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm growing increasingly confident it will be a 8-10 point win for Clinton.

[Verily]

In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 25 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 15 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

[Person Man]

Delaware is basically all in even though CNN isn't reporting it yet, and Obama took it over 55%.

Maybe that'll bump Clinton down to 54%.

Yeah, I wonder about that, too. Anyways, I think Her Royal Thighness will net 23 from Penn, leaving just another 137-ish to go!....and that includes supas.... so, yeah... about a net of half of what she needed according to Jimmy John.

[CultureKing]

well, at least Obama did better in Pennsylvania that Santorum in 2006.

[Joe Biden 2020]

We're getting close to 2 million votes statewide.

[exopolitician]

well, at least Obama did better in Pennsylvania that Santorum in 2006.

burn

[Verily]

In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

I must be screwing up the delegate numbers. How many statewide delegates does PA have?

[Joe Biden 2020]

In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

I must be screwing up the delegate numbers. How many statewide delegates does PA have?

158 pledged and 29 supers

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

I must be screwing up the delegate numbers. How many statewide delegates does PA have?

35 at large, 20 PLEOs.

[Verily]

In addition to analysis above, Clinton should win 30 statewide delegates to Obama's 26 on 54.5% of the vote. So overall a net gain of 14 for Clinton, no more than two changing either way.

J. J. said she needed at least 20. We'll see what he says now...

I must be screwing up the delegate numbers. How many statewide delegates does PA have?

158 pledged and 29 supers

No, I mean statewide. Not including districts.