Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[WalterMitty]

So how soon after 8PM will the networks call it for the Beast?

at the last possible moment.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

So how soon after 8PM will the networks call it for the Beast?

at the last possible moment.

Interesting.....I think it's going to be an early call, but it's the how much does she win by that's going to take all night.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Probably not till 9:30 or so. I think they waited a while to call it in Ohio as they thought all the obama territory hadn't been counted. I expect obama to run up a big lead as Philly is counted first. Olbermann will be giddy when he sees barack jump out to a 60-40 lead early on.

[Verily]

So how soon after 8PM will the networks call it for the Beast?

at the last possible moment.

Interesting.....I think it's going to be an early call, but it's the how much does she win by that's going to take all night.

Except for FOX, no one has called any race at close unless the exit polls showed more than a fifteen-point spread. Even FOX has waited for a while to call ten-point spreads.

[J. J.]

Guess, turnout looks good. 

A high turnout would be above 110 by 1:45 PM in my precinct.  It's a good measure of the African American turnout in Phila and PA-2.

No Lit drops and only the SEIU were out.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

So how soon after 8PM will the networks call it for the Beast?

at the last possible moment.

Interesting.....I think it's going to be an early call, but it's the how much does she win by that's going to take all night.

Except for FOX, no one has called any race at close unless the exit polls showed more than a fifteen-point spread. Even FOX has waited for a while to call ten-point spreads.

I though MSNBC called NY for Hillary within 30 seconds?  No?

[Sam Spade]

I sincerely doubt that it's called immediately.  Who knows, however...

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I sincerely doubt that it's called immediately.  Who knows, however...

No, Sam, not immediately, but I'm going to guess within 30 minutes the initial call will be made, FWIW though.  The final percentages are what's going to count anyway.

[Sam Spade]

I sincerely doubt that it's called immediately.  Who knows, however...

No, Sam, not immediately, but I'm going to guess within 30 minutes the initial call will be made, FWIW though.  The final percentages are what's going to count anyway.

Be careful with the exit polls, however.  I do remember that the one for the 2004 general election was really bad.  Hilariously so.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

PA has a mock election test on this page now but it will give you the returns once they start coming in tonight:

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=27

[Alcon]

PA has a mock election test on this page now but it will give you the returns once they start coming in tonight:

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=27

Ron Paul LANDSLIDE.

[Sam Spade]

120% reporting.  Maybe in Philadelphia...

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI, I didn't see this earlier, but Obama will be spending the evening (giving his afterwards speech) in Evansville, IN.  Don't know where Clinton will be.

[J. J.]

High turnout in the Phila suburbs.  Bucks County seems lower.

[Alcon]

How is Bucks County expected to vote anyway?  Swing area?

[Torie]

Just FYI, I didn't see this earlier, but Obama will be spending the evening (giving his afterwards speech) in Evansville, IN.  Don't know where Clinton will be.

In the City of Brotherly Love.

[Torie]

How is Bucks County expected to vote anyway?  Swing area?

That's the rumor.

[Eraserhead]

Are there any early turnout reports?

[Alcon]

Are there any early turnout reports?

I'm hearing mid-high turnout in Bucks, high in Montco, good in the Pittsburgh metro area.  No reports from Philly that I'm finding.

One anecdotal report of "near 50/50 Obama/Clinton split" in a Washington County precinct, but I have no idea how one would determine that so I assume it's crap.  Obama isn't winning Washington County.

[Eraserhead]

Well I see Obama's people are already complaining about the voting machines "breaking down" in Philly. Sigh... it shall not be a good day for my friend.

[Alcon]

Well I see Obama's people are already complaining about the voting machines "breaking down" in Philly. Sigh... it shall not be a good day for my friend.

That's pretty much their job, regardless of how good/bad the result is going to be.  Other rumblings I've heard say that new voters are getting the wrong precinct locations.

S**t happens.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Well I see Obama's people are already complaining about the voting machines "breaking down" in Philly. Sigh... it shall not be a good day for my friend.

That's pretty much their job, regardless of how good/bad the result is going to be.  Other rumblings I've heard say that new voters are getting the wrong precinct locations.

S**t happens.

So basically it's just like any other normal day at the polls?

[Alcon]

Well I see Obama's people are already complaining about the voting machines "breaking down" in Philly. Sigh... it shall not be a good day for my friend.

That's pretty much their job, regardless of how good/bad the result is going to be.  Other rumblings I've heard say that new voters are getting the wrong precinct locations.

S**t happens.

So basically it's just like any other normal day at the polls?

Pretty much.  Big city polling places are more likely to break down.  Voter card screw-ups happen...it's not a conspiracy, even if it sucks, but Obama's people have every right to complain about it.

[Torie]

For you anecdote hounds out there:

Bitter in Greensburg, Pa.   [David Freddoso]

A friend calls in from a polling station in rural white west Pennsylvania, where he's following a local Republican primary. He tells me that the Obama poll-worker passing out literature has been getting worked over all morning. Here's a small, anecdotal sample of the remarks. The first one refused an Obama flier as he entered the polling place:

    "I'd like to take that, but I'm just too bitter."

And this guy, pointing to a nearby military cemetery:

    "I don't like the b****, but at least she'll wear the flag. There are a lot of guys up in that cemetery that fought for that flag."

On the other hand, the younger voters are backing Obama. Turnout is heavy and the weather is beautiful, all working to Hillary's advantage.

From NRO (the Corner)

[Torie]

 What to Look For in the PA Exit Polls

Mark Blumenthal has a super-helpful post sizing up the differences in demographic composition among the various Pennsylvania polls, along with this useful chart summarizing all the crosstabs. The upshot (which I'm not sure Mark would feel 100 percent comfortable with) is that Obama's probably going to have a decent night (say, 7-point loss or less) if the African-American share of the vote hits or exceeds the upper teens, and if younger voters (ages 18-44) get into the low 40s or higher. If those demographic groups don't hit those thresholds, I'd guess Hillary's going to win by close to ten (or more) points.

(And, obviously, Obama needs to overwhelmingly win African American voters, do well among younger voters, and not terribly among white voters. But you already knew that...)

--Noam Scheiber

From TNR

And after some rather painful vaccillative soul searching that makes Hamlet seem impulsive by contrast, Jim Geraghty says Clinton wins by only 4%.   However, Obama is only breaking even in a Montco precinct that isn't nearly as downscale as Geraghty thinks it is. Obama can't break even in Montco and avoid losing the state by double digits.