Sanford/Pawlenty vs. Warner/Bayh vs. Bloomberg/Hagel -2012

[GPORTER]

The McCain/Sanford ticket is elected in 2008 over Clinton/Vilsack

There is improvement in Iraq, but the war still does not end.

The economy becomes relatively good after struggling for a while.

McCain, due to his age and his growing health problems, decides not to seek reelection in 2012 but he endorses his vice president for both the GOP nomination and the presidency.

On the republican side, Mark Sanford faces Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in a fight for the nomination. Sanford wins Iowa and narrowly looses New Hampshire to Mitt Romney. Romney takes Michigan while Sanford wins in Nevada and Florida. On Super Tuesday, Huckabee takes most of the south and West Virgnia and Missouri. Romney wins Massachussetts and Connecticut, Sanford wins New York and Pennsylvania. Sanford narrowly takes the California primary. The nomination is assured for Sanford after he wins the Texas primary. Sanford is nominated on the first ballot at the GOP convention that summer and he selects Tim Pawlenty as his running mate.

On the democratic side, Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, John Edwards, and Barack Obama are the candidates for the democratic nomination. Bayh wins in Iowa and Warner wins in  New Hampshire.  After Obama does poorly in those two states and he sees bad news coming from polling for the upcoming states, he drops out of the race. Edwards soon follows him. Now it is Bayh vs. Warner for the democratic nomination. Warner does well on Super Tuesday and after winning the California primary, he wins the nomination. Warner is nominated on the first ballot at the democratic convention that summer and he seleccts Evavn Bayh as his running mate.

For the independent candidacy, Mike Bloomberg decides to run as an independent, and he selects Chuck Hagel as his running mate.

Discuss with maps.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Why would Bloomberg run as an Independent?

[The Hack Hater]

Without knowing any details of how the Republicnas have governed the country, I'll just assume incumbency here will carry Sanford through.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Mark Warner/Evan Bayh (D): 331 EV, 48% of the PV
Mark Sanford/Tim Pawlenty (R): 207 EV, 45% of the PV
Mike Bloomberg/Chuck Hagel (I): 0 EV, 7% of the PV

I think that despite the situation in Iraq improving, likewise with the American Economy, I can see the Democratic ticket of Warner/Bayh prevailing over Sanford/Pawlenty. I do not that that the American people would want to have a fourth consecutive term of Republican rule in the White House.