How likely is this map?
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  How likely is this map?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: How likely is this scenario?
#1
>75%		  
#2
>50%		  
#3
>25%		  
#4
>0%		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 21

Author Topic: How likely is this map?  (Read 2763 times)
Middle-aged Europe
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« on: March 11, 2008, 03:05:01 PM »
After having toyed aroung a bit with the Electoral College Calculator:



Obama 270
McCain 268
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2008, 03:06:24 PM »
<0%<25%
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perdedor
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« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2008, 03:10:20 PM »
Obama wins a CD in Nebraska, but loses New Jersey and Massachusetts. Ehhh...0.0001% chance.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2008, 03:10:47 PM »
The raw numbers are actually about right though, but this has about a one in thousand chance of happening. Of course, McCain could want comprimise with congress on judges, but that's the only way I see this happening.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #4 on: March 11, 2008, 03:15:50 PM »
Barack Obama will never win Arkansas and never lose Massachusetts.
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Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #5 on: March 11, 2008, 03:38:43 PM »
Highly Unlikely.

Old Europe, may I ask, what is the margin in MA?
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The Hack Hater
AloneinOregon
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« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2008, 07:50:22 PM »
And another thing. Demcrats in Ohio and Pennsylvania may prefer Clinton to Obama, however, they still would go for Obama in the general election.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #7 on: March 11, 2008, 07:55:02 PM »
Actually, according to RCP, Obama is up in Ohio.
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Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
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« Reply #8 on: March 12, 2008, 02:42:09 PM »
Quote from: Rockefeller Republican on March 11, 2008, 03:38:43 PM
Old Europe, may I ask, what is the margin in MA?

I have no idea.

I just wanted to put up a remotely realistic map where Obama loses Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, but still manages to become president. I also found the idea funny that Obama is pushed over the top by winning a single EV in Nebraska. Wink
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Franzl
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« Reply #9 on: March 12, 2008, 03:01:14 PM »
Quote from: Old Europe on March 12, 2008, 02:42:09 PM
Quote from: Rockefeller Republican on March 11, 2008, 03:38:43 PM
Old Europe, may I ask, what is the margin in MA?

I have no idea.

I just wanted to put up a remotely realistic map where Obama loses Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, but still manages to become president. I also found the idea funny that Obama is pushed over the top by winning a single EV in Nebraska. Wink

absolutely no chance.
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Reignman
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« Reply #10 on: March 12, 2008, 03:48:02 PM »
No way that's happening. Here's a more realistic scenario:

Image Link

Obama 272
McCain 266
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perdedor
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2008, 01:06:20 AM »
Quote from: Reignman on March 12, 2008, 03:48:02 PM
No way that's happening. Here's a more realistic scenario:

Image Link

Obama 272
McCain 266

What gives anyone the impression that Obama (or any Democrat for that matter) would lose New Jersey  to any Republican? Let alone a total ass clown like McCain.
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cannonia
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2008, 07:19:43 AM »
So McCain dies before the convention, the GOP passes over Huckabee and picks Romney/Christie Todd Whitman, and Huckabee defects to be Obama's running mate.  Then you could get *something* like that?

In other words, not very likely Smiley
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Jake
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2008, 11:13:43 AM »
Unlikely. A Nebraska district and Massachusetts switching to vote for the opposite party has to be the most unlikely map ever.
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Willy Woz
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« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2008, 11:46:25 AM »
A black guy could not win Arkansas.
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Reignman
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« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2008, 01:15:34 PM »
Quote from: arnold layne on March 13, 2008, 01:06:20 AM

What gives anyone the impression that Obama (or any Democrat for that matter) would lose New Jersey  to any Republican? Let alone a total ass clown like McCain.

It's possible, if unlikely.
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