Wyoming Democratic caucus prediction thread

[Angel of Death]

I don't know how difficult it is to make predictions about caucuses, but if anyone wants to have a go at it, do it here.

[Verily]

Obama: 55-75%
Clinton: 25-45%

That's all I'm prepared to say.

[Eraserhead]

Here is my only somewhat educated guess...

Obama 61%
Clinton 38%

[Lief 🗽]

Obama barely breaches 60%.

[Eraserhead]

Obama barely breaches 60%.

You make that sound like a bad thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Remember that it's not just a caucus, it's a caucus with only one site per county. What other state was done this way? Idaho.

Obama - 70%
Clinton - 30%

[Lief 🗽]

Obama barely breaches 60%.

You make that sound like a bad thing.

Hehe.

I don't think it'll be as big as blow-out as Nebraska or Idaho, because Clinton is not ignoring it this time, but the demographics and the caucus format make it hard for Obama to not breach 60%.

[SPQR]

Obama 63-37

[JohnnyLongtorso]

67-33 Obama.

[Aizen]

65-33

[Meeker]

65-35

[WalterMitty]

whatever the margin, olbermann and matthews will proclaim the momentum is back on obama's side!

(TEH GREAT) obama is back!

[War on Want]

Obama barely breaches 60%.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

WYOMING

Barack Obama: 64%
Hillary Clinton: 32%
Others: 2%

[© tweed]

it won't be quite as much of a blowout as was Idaho because Clinton didn't really contest that at all.  I think Bill spent a day or two in Wyoming earlier this week.

I'll say Obama 66 - Clinton 33

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if she'll fail viability in any counties, like she did in Ada. That'd give Obama all 5 state convention delegates if it's large enough.

Teton is very likely for that.

[Verily]

I wonder if she'll fail viability in any counties, like she did in Ada. That'd give Obama all 5 state convention delegates if it's large enough.

Teton is very likely for that.

Possibly; Obama hasn't visited Wyoming the way he visited Idaho, and he went to Boise (Ada County). Teton County is much more like Blaine County...but Clinton missed viability there, too.

Actually, I'm not sure Erc noticed that in his calculations. Could that reduce her delegate total in Idaho to 0?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if she'll fail viability in any counties, like she did in Ada. That'd give Obama all 5 state convention delegates if it's large enough.

Teton is very likely for that.

Possibly; Obama hasn't visited Wyoming the way he visited Idaho, and he went to Boise (Ada County). Teton County is much more like Blaine County...but Clinton missed viability there, too.

Actually, I'm not sure Erc noticed that in his calculations. Could that reduce her delegate total in Idaho to 0?

It'd reduce it to 1. She'd fail viability statewide and lose her one at large delegate and in ID-1 and lose her one delegate from that district. The only delegate she'd receive is the one from ID-2.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

whatever the margin, olbermann and matthews will proclaim the momentum is back on obama's side!

(TEH GREAT) obama is back!

They won't be the only ones.  This caucus could not come at a worse time for Hillary, who has been riding high on good press.  She needed more days in the sun.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I have NO idea -

but

61 - 38

[exopolitician]

I'll be generous....

Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%

[Verily]

I wonder if she'll fail viability in any counties, like she did in Ada. That'd give Obama all 5 state convention delegates if it's large enough.

Teton is very likely for that.

Possibly; Obama hasn't visited Wyoming the way he visited Idaho, and he went to Boise (Ada County). Teton County is much more like Blaine County...but Clinton missed viability there, too.

Actually, I'm not sure Erc noticed that in his calculations. Could that reduce her delegate total in Idaho to 0?

It'd reduce it to 1. She'd fail viability statewide and lose her one at large delegate and in ID-1 and lose her one delegate from that district. The only delegate she'd receive is the one from ID-2.

But Blaine is in ID-2, and it had the second-most votes of any county in that district. And Clinton was already below 20% there but above 20% in ID-1 (counting her Ada County votes).

I'd just like to see someone do the math. Maybe I'll add it all up later.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Might as well bump this with my interpretation of Idaho election law.

It seems from what I read that Idaho's congressional district delegates are like Minnesota's, set in stone from the vote. However the delegates at the state convention are elected from the delegates attending that. In that case Hillary should receive 2 delegates, one from each district and zero from the state convention.