"Absolutely nothing happened" last night?

[Keystone Phil]

So I have this race politics class and, as expected, I am the lone vocal Republican/McCain supporter. I'm known as an Obama critic in that class as well. We do a lot of group work and my entire group is obsessed with Obama. So after every primary, my professor asks for commentary from the class which always results in a back and forth between myself and the most vocal Obama guy in my group. Everytime there is a primary result in Obama's favor, the kid strides into class with a big smile and some smart remark.

Once the professor asks about what happened last night, the kid shouts, "Absolutely nothing happened last night. Nothing changed." For some reason, even though "nothing happened" last night, he walked into class with a rather disappointed look and no comment. Interesting.


So, do you agree? Did "absolutely nothing" happen last night? Are people still insisting that Hillary is not very much in the fight again?

[perdedor]

Considering that she'd have have to win almost 70% of the vote in every remaining state to catch up, I'd say that she is still becoming increasingly irrelevant. As an Obama supporter, I can confidently say that yesterday's results were far more disappointing than they were frightening. Half of the disappointment was knowing that I'd have to hear about how Hillary is going to come back and win the nomination from a bunch of simpletons.

Obama will be the nominee.

[RJEvans]

Oh, something happened alright. If Clinton had lost, Obama would be the nominee. That kid realizes it. He knows if this goes to the convention, it is Clinton's to lose. Obama will just have to keep fighting on. NEITHER candidate will get the required 2,024 delegates to be nominated without superdelegates, so there is no reason for Clinton to drop out. Something happened. Clinton got a net gain of about 10 delegates, he stopped his momentum and gave the media a positive news story about Clinton and now forces them to take a second look at Obama.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'll tell ya what happened last night. There were two winners. In the Republican primary, John McCain, who secured his party's nomination and, in the Democratic primary, the big winner was, well, who else? John McCain

Democrats had the opportunity to as good as settle theirs - and they blew it

It gets worse . I seem to recall hearing on CNN that 25% of Clinton primary voters would vote McCain if she was not the Democratic nominee; while 10% of Obama primary voters would do the same

Is Obama that bloody different from Clinton on the issues - and that's what it should be about

Dave

[© tweed]

she's going to end up with a net gain of somewhere between 10 and 15 delegates... the math is not going to work out....  Obama's going to (more than) make that up with WY and MS.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Hillary won't be the nominee if that's what you're asking. This thing will drag out until at least June and maybe until the convention. Of course, that might have happened anyway, but nobody can deny that Hillary is in far better shape than she was 24 hours ago. Of course, that's probably not on her side.

[Michael Z]

The problem I see is this - assuming Hillary wins PA (and that's very likely), it may still enable Obama to enter the convention with a slight lead, but then it's up to the superdelegates and the so-called party elders, who may well be swayed by the argument that Clinton won all the big states, including states that are likely to matter in a close general (such as Ohio), and so she's selected. It really isn't all that unlikely.

[MODU]

Mathematically, "not much" happened.  Killary did better than projected in Texas, limiting the gains Obama could have made there.  At the same time, she did very well in Ohio, winning more delegates to help keep the difference between the two candidates relatively equal.  This means that neither candidate can realistically win the nomination on pledged delegates alone.  Additionally, by her strong showing, that improves her chances of winning PA, denying Obama and closing the gap a little bit more (of course, that all depends on what happens in the next few months).  It's going to come down to a superdelegate battle and possible admission of Florida and Michigan delegates to be seated. 

Well, in a way, I guess you can say a lot happened . . . it just won't be realized for a few more months.

[Flying Dog]

Michigan will totally NOT be counted.

[Democratic Hawk]

The problem I see is this - assuming Hillary wins PA (and that's very likely), it may still enable Obama to enter the convention with a slight lead, but then it's up to the superdelegates and the so-called party elders, who may well be swayed by the argument that Clinton won all the big states, including states that are likely to matter in a close general (such as Ohio), and so she's selected. It really isn't all that unlikely.

Not to mention the possibility of Clinton pipping Obama in the popular vote, and that's excluding MI and FL. Given OH, Clinton could wallop him in terms of the popular vote in PA. She'll win KY and WV by a mile given the demographics. Winning the popular vote could strengthen her 'legitimacy' in the minds of unpledged superdelegates

What's left for Obama? MS, WY, OR, MT and SD?

Obama may or may not win NC, given a new poll that shows Clinton closing. Polling has him leading in IN, but as to whether that is going to hold and fall his way, I don't know

Fun and games, lie ahead, that's for sure - at least, from a Republican perspective

Dave

[MODU]

Michigan will totally NOT be counted.

They (all or a fraction) can be seated as unpledged delegates, since Obama wasn't on the ballot.  It would be up to the state to determine how they would vote.

[Lief 🗽]

Nothing really happened in the nomination race last night, aside from Clinton winning a handful of delegates.

McCain did probably win the general election though.

[Flying Dog]

Michigan will totally NOT be counted.

They (all or a fraction) can be seated as unpledged delegates, since Obama wasn't on the ballot.  It would be up to the state to determine how they would vote.

Possibly. However, they won't be based off the primary.

[Keystone Phil]

Nothing really happened in the nomination race last night, aside from Clinton winning a handful of delegates.

Of course something happened. Hillary proved she can survive and Obama couldn't end it. Last night was a major victory for her even if it wasn't a major mathmatical win.

[Lief 🗽]

Nothing really happened in the nomination race last night, aside from Clinton winning a handful of delegates.

Of course something happened. Hillary proved she can survive and Obama couldn't end it. Last night was a major victory for her even if it wasn't a major mathmatical win.

But it doesn't put her any closer (relatively) to the nomination, especially because her victories last night will be completely forgotten seven weeks from now.

[minionofmidas]

Fingers crossed for Al Gore.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The problem I see is this - assuming Hillary wins PA (and that's very likely), it may still enable Obama to enter the convention with a slight lead, but then it's up to the superdelegates and the so-called party elders, who may well be swayed by the argument that Clinton won all the big states, including states that are likely to matter in a close general (such as Ohio), and so she's selected. It really isn't all that unlikely.

If the superdelegates do that, you can expect a floor fight. if they do that despite the fact Obama won more votes and more pledged delegates, you can expect a floor fight, riots in major cities, and a 45-state McCain landslide come November. Democrats don't like the Clintons that much.

If there truly is a standstill with no way of going forward, it's more likely they'll nominate a bland, neutral candidate everyone can agree on and nobody can get enthusiastic about.

[Nutmeg]

I seem to recall hearing on CNN that 25% of Clinton primary voters would vote McCain if she was not the Democratic nominee; while 10% of Obama primary voters would do the same.

They say that now, but would they really?

[exopolitician]

I seem to recall hearing on CNN that 25% of Clinton primary voters would vote McCain if she was not the Democratic nominee; while 10% of Obama primary voters would do the same.

They say that now, but would they really?

They just say that to be dramatic....how hypocritical of them to support the candidate that is probably one of the biggest opposers of President Bush and then all of a sudden turn around and vote for someone like McCain...instead of Obama just because they are bitter. I dont think they are that stupid...[hopefully].

[NHPolitico]

The problem I see is this - assuming Hillary wins PA (and that's very likely), it may still enable Obama to enter the convention with a slight lead, but then it's up to the superdelegates and the so-called party elders, who may well be swayed by the argument that Clinton won all the big states, including states that are likely to matter in a close general (such as Ohio), and so she's selected. It really isn't all that unlikely.

If there truly is a standstill with no way of going forward, it's more likely they'll nominate a bland, neutral candidate everyone can agree on and nobody can get enthusiastic about.

I came up with Harry Reid for that description.

[ottermax]

As an Obama supporter I truly felt miserable last night. The newspaper today said, "Clinton Comeback." However, at this point, I doubt momentum will change the race much; this fact is proven by last night. If momentum had been a factor, Obama should have at least won Texas. I think Obama will win the nomination because at this point the difference between him and Clinton will barely change, perhaps favor Obama.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

As an Obama supporter I truly felt miserable last night. The newspaper today said, "Clinton Comeback." However, at this point, I doubt momentum will change the race much; this fact is proven by last night. If momentum had been a factor, Obama should have at least won Texas. I think Obama will win the nomination because at this point the difference between him and Clinton will barely change, perhaps favor Obama.

Obama did have momentum up until a few days before the election. He came from 15% down and tied it. The problem is that he fumbled the ball on the goal line thanks to his media debunkle and people questioning his preparedness as President.

[Smash255]

Its basically impossible for Clinton to catch up.   Looking at the Primaries she picked up a net 15 delegates (OH +9, RI +5, TX +4 VT-3).  We still have the Texas Caucus results, as it stands right now with 40% counted, Obama would take the state delegates from the caucus 37-30, and very close to 38-29.  At best Clinton picked up 10 delegates last night and more likely either 6 or 8.  She won about 51% of the delegates last night when she needed over 60%, and likely 65%.

[© tweed]

At best Clinton picked up 10 delegates last night and more likely either 6 or 8. 

In the worst-case scenario for Clinton, Obama could cancel out her momentous March 4th with the Wyoming Caucuses.

[Democratic Hawk]

McCain did probably win the general election though.

Now that's pessimisim if ever I heard it. Staid, old and tired 'more of the failed same' McCain. Ugh

Dave