The 2012 Primary/Caucus Nomination System

[StateBoiler]

How do you think it should be set up?

And how do you think it will be set up? Will anything change?

[ottermax]

How it should be done!

A system where:

The states vote in a primary: As fun as caucuses are, my grandmother couldn't go to her's because she is confined to a wheelchair; it hurts a lot of voters who just can't get out, or have to work when the caucus is held.

There are five states each week. The first ten are the ten least populous. Then the next five states the next week or two. The largest five states (based on number of voters for the party in that state) are last. Thus, the small states have a choice in momentum, but the election can't be decided by them, so large states still hold sway.

What will happen:

The current corrupt useless system. bleh.

[Хahar 🤔]

What should happen:

All the states get together on a Saturday in May and vote. The winner of the popular vote gets the nomination.

What will happen:

Same as this year, except perhaps with a little less front-loading.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

First Tuesday in January (excluding January 1): Iowa Caucus
Second Tuesday in February: New Hampshire Primary
Second Tuesday in May:  Every other state holds a primary

[Хahar 🤔]

First Tuesday in January (excluding January 1): Iowa Caucus
Second Tuesday in February: New Hampshire Primary
Second Tuesday in May:  Every other state holds a primary

That's a long wait.

And why Tuesday?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

First Tuesday in January (excluding January 1): Iowa Caucus
Second Tuesday in February: New Hampshire Primary
Second Tuesday in May:  Every other state holds a primary

That's a long wait.

And why Tuesday?

I just picked the day when most primaries are held.  Plus, I could never deny the media the right to have a "Super Tuesday."

[Frodo]

How do you think it should be set up?

See this link.

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In all likelihood, probably not much.  Except, Democrats will likely scrap the proportional system they have now in favor of winner-take-all (particularly in the event of a brokered convention, and if the Democratic presidential nominee loses to John McCain this November), and revise penalties for states that break DNC rules. 

[Mr. Morden]

In all likelihood, probably not much.  Except, Democrats will likely scrap the proportional system they have now in favor of winner-take-all (particularly in the event of a brokered convention, and if the Democratic presidential nominee loses to John McCain this November), and revise penalties for states that break DNC rules.

Again, it's not the PR system the Dems are using that's dragging out the process.  It's the closeness of the overall vote.  If the Dems were using WTA by state, the process would be going on just as long since, under WTA, while you can build up a lead more easily, it's also that much easier for the trailing candidate to catch up.

[oldnumber7]

How do you think it should be set up?

And how do you think it will be set up? Will anything change?

I don't suppose much will change at all, but I hope and I pray that the parties will decide to push back the primary schedule. This campaign started too soon at full intensity after the 2006 congressional elections and has already dominated the national agenda for more than a year, stifling action by Congress and the White House. How about a primary season that begins in early April and finishes around mid-June? I'm thinking they should hold the Iowa caucus in early April, followed a week later by New Hampshire, then about 5 or 6 primaries/caucuses each week. These mini-Super Tuesdays could conform to a version of the so-called Delaware plan, with smaller states going first and larger ones later. But, Dear God, they have to stop the madness with these 2 year campaigns!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Get rid of the caucuses. They are unfair to the disabled and elderly who don't want to take the time or aren't physically capable of going into a room and hanging around for an hour or so until they can count them all. We need a primary system that is uniformly the same. Also, I don't believe we need open primaries. Let the registered party members choose their parties nomination--not the independents.

[Хahar 🤔]

First Tuesday in January (excluding January 1): Iowa Caucus
Second Tuesday in February: New Hampshire Primary
Second Tuesday in May:  Every other state holds a primary

That's a long wait.

And why Tuesday?

I just picked the day when most primaries are held.  Plus, I could never deny the media the right to have a "Super Tuesday."

Tuesday elections are an anachronism, from the days when polling stations were a day's ride away and there were proscriptions against travelling on the Sabbath.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

First Tuesday in January (excluding January 1): Iowa Caucus
Second Tuesday in February: New Hampshire Primary
Second Tuesday in May:  Every other state holds a primary

That's a long wait.

And why Tuesday?

I just picked the day when most primaries are held.  Plus, I could never deny the media the right to have a "Super Tuesday."

Tuesday elections are an anachronism, from the days when polling stations were a day's ride away and there were proscriptions against travelling on the Sabbath.

I don't see why that matters.  Also, every state gives the day off to its employees, similar to the Presidential election day, so that they can vote.

[Jake]

I think it's very likely we'll see a national primary with or without delegates. I can't see super-delegates remaining around in the numbers they are today.

[cannonia]

Replace the primaries completely and put all the candidates on the ballot on Election Day.  I favor preferential voting, but it wouldn't be necessary.  Why does the government need to subsidize or sanction parties or their candidates at all?

Less radical would be regional primaries, maybe even just 3 or 4 neighboring states at a time.  Have a group of states voting every 2 weeks or so.  Plenty of time to campaign, and hopefully it wouldn't force out everyone but the big money-raisers.

[Beet]

I think four states randomly selected from among the smaller 1/2 half of states should have an early primary, 1 from each region:
northeast
midwest
west
south

The order that they will go will also be randomly selected, each 1 week apart beginning in March. Finally, two weeks after the last state, all the other states vote in a "national primary" and the delegates are apportioned according to uniform party rules set up so that the popular vote winner is guaranteed to win the most delegates.

[jimrtex]

Base allocation (relative share of delegates):

(Share_Electoral_Vote + Share_Popular_Vote)/2

Note that base allocation of all States sums to 1.0.   Calculations should be carried out to 6 decimal places.

Bonuses for party success:

5% bonus for carrying state in presidential election.
5% bonus for governor.
2.5% for each senator.
5% x share of  congressmen from state.
2.5% for control of each legislative house.

Adjustments for process:

Open Primary: Multiply x 1.00
Semi-Closed Primary: Multiply x 0.95
Closed Primary: Multiply x 0.90
Election Precinct Level Caucus: Multiply x 0.70
Medium Level Caucus: Multiply x 0.60
High Level Caucus: Multiply x 0.50

Note: Allocation of national delegates to be directly based on first-level results (no internal weighting or cascading).  Participants at caucuses will express preferences at sign-in.  These votes will be used for allocation of national delegates.  Caucuses must permit mail-in participation by UOCAVA voters and voters who might be unable to participate in in-person caucusing (elderly, disabled, absent on caucus day, confined to jail, work conflict, etc.)

Level of caucus based on average number of registered voters per caucus site.

States choose one of the following windows:

1. March 6-17
2. March 20-March 31
3. April 3-April 21 (extra week due to Easter on April
4. April 24-May 5
5. May 8-May 19
6. May 22-June 2
7. June 5-June 16

These windows begin on a Tuesday and end on a Saturday.  Bonus for short-term delay:

Until 1st Saturday: 10%
Until 2nd Tuesday: 5%
Until 2nd Saturday: 15%

Normalize values so that they sum to one.  These numbers would represent the share of delegates for a State prior to adjustments for where the State falls within the overall calendar.

Calendar adjustments:

The target share of delegates to be chosen in each window are: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7/28 of the overall share of the delegates.  That is, 7/28 of delegates are to be chosen in the June window, and 1/28 in the first March window.  

Any windows that were not chosen by any States are removed.  For example if the 5th window had no primaries or caucuses, the relative targets for the remaining windows would be 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, an 7/23 of the overall share of the delegates.

These targets are adjusted as follows:

Beginning with the last window, compare the unadjusted share with the target share.  If the unadjusted share is greater than the target share, increase the target share.  For example, if States entitled to 40% of the delegates choose the June window, then the target is increased to 40%.  The targets for the earlier windows is reduced to compensate (eg the targets for the first 6 windows would be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/21 of 60%.  This adjustment avoids the possibility of States being penalized for choosing a later window.

If the target is greater than 3 times the raw share of the States selecting the window, the target is reduced to 2 times the raw share.  The targets for earlier windows are increased to compensate.  This adjustment avoids rewarding States too much for picking a particular window.

We next compute a scale factor for each window, which is simply the target share divided by the unadjusted share.  The scale factors should increase monontonically for later windows.  There should never be a greater reward for picking an earlier window over a later one.

Beginning with the last window, we check for cases where an earlier window has a greater scale factor.  We then reduce the scale factor for the earlier window, while increasing the scale factors for the later windows, such that the scale factor for the earlier window is equal to the scale factor for the next later window, and the sum of the targets for all windows remains the same.

We compute the number of national convention votes for each State by multiplying the raw share times the scale factor for its windows times the desired total number of delegates at the convention (eg 3000).  Fractions are retained.  While there won't be fractional delegates, each delegate will have a fractional vote.

When the primary or caucus is held, all candidates who receive more than 5% of the vote will receive their pro rata share of the State's national convention votes.  The number of actual delegates will be the next whole number, each who will exercise an equal share of a candidate's votes.  For example, if a candidate were entitled to 2.70 national convention votes from a State, then there would be 3 delegates, each who exercised 0.90 votes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In all likelihood, probably not much.  Except, Democrats will likely scrap the proportional system they have now in favor of winner-take-all (particularly in the event of a brokered convention, and if the Democratic presidential nominee loses to John McCain this November), and revise penalties for states that break DNC rules.

That will not happen. The race would still be very close under winner take all anyway. For that matter each state party sets its own system and the vast majority would be opposed to switching, even if the DNC for some dumb reason wanted to lobby for winner take all. WTA is just too blatantly undemocratic and would piss too many people off.

[Mr. Morden]

The race would still be very close under winner take all anyway. For that matter each state party sets its own system and the vast majority would be opposed to switching, even if the DNC for some dumb reason wanted to lobby for winner take all.

I don't think it's exactly true that "each state party sets its own system".  I mean, yes, they set their own system as far as allocation by CD and such, but I think the DNC rules actually force every state to use some variation of PR w/ a 15% threshold.

If there was no such rule, then I think you would eventually see the same kind of random patchwork of systems that the GOP has.  Some states would probably shift to WTA, just because it would grant the state more attention in a close race, or they'd do it to advance a favorite son as in the Giuliani case.  I don't think there really would be any "populist outcry" over such moves, as the vast majority of voters don't understand the first thing about the nominating system, and are unlikely to get worked up about it.

[politicaltipster]

1st Tuesday in January (not Jan 1st) : IA
2nd Tuesday in Jaunuary : NH
3rd Tuesday : SC
4th Tuesday : New England Regional Primary (excl NH)
5th Tuesday: Middle Atlantic Primary
6th Tuesday : South Atlantic Primary (excl SC)
7th Tuesday : East South Central Primary
8th Tuesday : West South Central Primary
9th Tuesday: Mountain Primary
10th Tuesday: Pacific Primary
11th Tuesday: West North Central
12th Tuesday: East North Central & Misc

(Census Bureau definitions so DC and Delaware are South-Atlantic states).

Allocation

50% WTA
50% Proportional

States get votes in proportion to the number of registered voters for that party.

Penalties

-10% for holding anything other than a primary
-30% for holding anything other than a primary or a caucus
-50% for holding the primary outside the proscribed dates

Penalties are cumalative so a state that held a convention outside of the correct dates would lose 90% of its delegates.

[Smid]

All do Primaries, but final delegates are determined PR off a national popular vote figure.

Timing:
- Iowa still goes first, followed by NH a week later.
- SC, Maine, Florida, Washington State all get to go any time after NH.
- California, NY and 20 other states (but not Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan or Ohio) go on Super Tuesday, one month after NH.
- All remaining states, including Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio can choose any date after Super Tuesday.