18-29 vote in the General

[Smash255]

In 2004 18-29 year olds made up 17% of the vote and was won by Kerry 54-45 according to CNN exit polls. 

Anyone have a projection on the % of the total vote 18-29 year olds will make up and how they will break % wise to each candidate  (assuming Obama vs McCain)?

[Aizen]

Young people aren't inspired by Kerry. They are by Obama. I'll say 22% with a 58-41 for Obama.

[Nutmeg]

I think their percentage of the electorate won't be terribly dramatic because turnout will be higher across-the-board this year.

That said, I'll guess maybe 21% or so, and 60-38 Obama.

Edit: Quite close to Aizen's prediction, I see.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think their percentage of the electorate won't be terribly dramatic because turnout will be higher across-the-board this year.

That said, I'll guess maybe 21% or so, and 60-38 Obama.

Edit: Quite close to Aizen's prediction, I see.

^^^^^^^^^^

[Meeker]

74% Nader, 19% Obama, 7% McCain

[Torie]

Do some homework, and seek out cross tabbed polls, and find out!  Catch that Weberian work ethic. Just do it!

[The Hack Hater]

64-36: Obama I'd be careful about giving him too big a percentage myself.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

21% of the vote

Obama 63%
McCain 35%

...Obama is a candidate for the 18-29 crowd if there ever was one, he's going to dominate that age bracket. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't know why 18-29 year olds are groups together. There's a huge difference in an 18 year old and a 29 year old.

[Sasquatch]

19% of the vote

Obama 63%
McCain 35%
Nader 1%
Other 1%

[angus]

Do some homework, and seek out cross tabbed polls, and find out!  Catch that Weberian work ethic. Just do it!

after you have made about a gazillion posts here, it will dawn on you that most folks here are lazy, and often use this forum as a way to get people to do their homework.  It won't be a gradual apocalypse, but rather a momentary epiphany.  You'll read some thread and it'll hit you.  Need a detailed analysis of suburban America for your social studies class?  Just make a thread asking a question about the suburbs, then BRTD will rant about it, and several posters will chime in to correct his inaccuracies and you'll eventually get all the facts without even opening a book.  Got a report on Lincoln due tomorrow in History 101?  Just post something nice about him, and you're guaranteed an accurate but one-sided diatribe from StatesRights about what a tyrant he was.  Want to know about the constitutionality of the New Deal?  Make a post calling FDR one of our greatest presidents, and A18 will rain statistics and constitutional law upon you showing how FDR convinced congress to violate the constitution at every turn.

Actually, it's not a bad deal.  Junkies get to write about what they like, and lazy but interested folks get the information they want without much work.  Kudos to Dave Liep.

But yeah, if one is genuinely interested in making an informed prediction, then I agree that one should take his own walk into cyberspace, pick out the right stats, and do the homework. 

[Smash255]

22%

Obama 64%
McCain 35%

[??????????]

I don't know why 18-29 year olds are groups together. There's a huge difference in an 18 year old and a 29 year old.

Agreed. I have little if anything in common with an 18 yr old. Maybe, 18-22 would be a better setup.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't know why 18-29 year olds are groups together. There's a huge difference in an 18 year old and a 29 year old.

Agreed. I have little if anything in common with an 18 yr old. Maybe, 18-22 would be a better setup.

I have a lot more in common with 18-22 year olds (hell I live with them) than you however. 18-25 is sometimes used however.

[Person Man]

59-40 would be enough to win the PV if all other age groups are the same and they comprise like 25% of the vote...