Popular vote tie

[Angel of Death]

How would the map look like if there is a negligible difference between McCain's and Obama's vote nationwide?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Maybe something like this:

[Alcon]

Maybe something like this:

What's with Florida, and how can California go over 60% with a tied popular vote?

[Verily]

Yeah, that map makes no sense. Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, California... no.

A uniform swing to 50-50 from 2004 would flip Iowa and New Mexico to the Democrats (both >50%), still a narrow Republican victory. Nevada would fall to GOP >40% while NY, RI and VT would rise to Dem >60% and WI to Dem >50%.

[Person Man]

Yeah, that map makes no sense. Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, California... no.

A uniform swing to 50-50 from 2004 would flip Iowa and New Mexico to the Democrats (both >50%), still a narrow Republican victory. Nevada would fall to GOP >40% while NY, RI and VT would rise to Dem >60% and WI to Dem >50%.

49.5-49.5?

Hmmm.... with trends, I would see Colorado and Nevada as DEM and NM, WI as GOPPER with IA switching...as opposed to 2000/2004 with McCain Obama

basically 2004 with Obama doing better in the SW and getting under 40 in KY...maybe IN.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Maybe something like this:

Awful. Florida won't be going Democratic this year, especially in a 50/50 election.

[Jake]

Obama v. McCain

[Lief 🗽]

Obama v. McCain

^^^^

Though I disagree with the percentages.

[Angel of Death]

I'm bumping this thread, because I'm curious to see how much those on the forum will currently agree on a conditional result with such a considerably restricting assumption.

[Hash]

Maybe something like this:

That has got to be one of the worst maps you've made.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada will all go democratic long before Florida will. For that matter, Ohio, Missouri, and Virginia will too.

[© tweed]

Kerry2004 + Iowa.  McCain wins 279-259

[Ronnie]

I see Colorado being right with the national average this year, and I believe that McCain could eke out a victory under 0.5% there.  New Mexico will barely go to the Democrats (2000 type margin), and Ohio barely goes to the Republicans.

Nevada is also a tricky one, since I don't see it trending either Republican or Democrat this year.  It will be very close.