when will Texas be winnable for Democrats?

[Eraserhead]

Um, not really. Italians are medditeranean/latins and refused to assimilate fully for a few generations. Latins are doing the same but unlike the Italians, anti-catholicism is MUCH WEAKER than then, intermarriage is far more acceptable so it's more possible to assimilate. I'm middle class, speak only english and yet I'm somehow not white because of having a spanish last name? *facepalm*

I miss this guy.

[RJEvans]

Well, I think the Democratic candidate could crack 40% this year. When can it become viable for the Democrats? I think in 8-12 years, maybe more.

[Verily]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

sort of true but Kerry only got around 54% of the Hispanic vote nationwide IIRC so it's not a solid a bloc as we think of it / as it should be.  and Obama being black make prevent him from approaching Gore numbers (which was around 60%; plus McCain isn't a wingnut on immigration.  he'll do considerably better among Hispanics than Romney would have.)  but if the GOP keeps moving right on immigration it is only logical that the Hispanic bloc would begin to move away from them.

the other argument is that Hispanics will be viewed as 'White' within the next few decades, much as Irish and Italians were not considered white way back during the immigration waves but were assimilated.  that's why this debate should be interesting.

I doubt Hispanics will ever be viewed as White. Hispanics are much different from Americans culturally, than Irish and Italians were. Spanish will always be spoken as a second language, while Italian and Gaelic slowly died out.

Doesn't see why they would keep Spanish around. I know plenty of third-generation Puerto Rican and Mexican immigrants around here who only know what Spanish they learned in high school. The language is only retained when they live in Spanish-only ghettos in places like Texas and California.

NYC, in my experience, has a greater amount of ghettoization of minority groups than Texas (having lived in the Texas barrio and traversed the NYC one).  I can't speak to Jersey. 

The first-generation (not second or third-generation) Hispanics in the Texas barrio have to learn to partially communicate in English in order to be able to get jobs and advance in life.  Their children (when born in the US) are highly effective translators.  Once we get to third generation, they speak English as good as most Texans do.

...Which is apparently not very well

"Ghettoization" in New York City is a groos exaggeration, and you know this. Certainly parts of the city are starkly divided, but the very fact of close proximity makes interaction a fact of life, and there is no isolation for a group simply because a neighborhood is primarily Hispanic (or black or Jewish or Russian or Korean or whatever), at least in terms of the second and third generations (the former often leaves, and the latter almost always does).

This is much less true in El Paso or Los Angeles. In the latter, ghettoization is perfected to an art: because moving around within the city and its environs requires a car, many simply don't leave. The ghetto is also far larger than in New York, meaning that proximity to English-speaking neighborhoods is much rarer.

In El Paso, the vast majority of the population speaks Spanish, so the incentives to learn English are much weaker, and a second-generation immigrant may learn English in school but never reach proficiency because only Spanish is spoken in the home environment and general life. This is to some extent true in New York, but the interaction is there in NYC in a way it is not in El Paso--or in Los Angeles.

[memphis]

Not in the foreseeable future.  Many years from now, when the issues and parties are different, any state could go for either party. Also, this whole bit about Hispanics not assimilating is garbage. You can already see it in people whose families have been here a while. A kid I used to work with was so Americanized we called him a dry-back. And he was born in Mexico. The story of Hispanic immigrants is the same as every other group. They're adding to American culture as they become part of it.

[agcatter]

Absolutely Obama will crack 40% in Texas this year. 

57-42 seems likely. 

Democrats have tried everything in the state.  In 02 they tried the dream team.  A wealthy  Hispanic running for governor spending loads of money running in tandom with a black candidate for the Senate who was characterized as "conservative".  Of course the idea was to use this "dream ticket" to bump up the black and Hispanic vote at the same time that Ron Kirk was portrayed as a "conservative Democrat".  60 minutes ran a puff piece the Sunday before the election portraying Kirk as a "new Democrat".  Rubbish.

Tony Sanchez lost the governor's race by 19 points and Kirk lost his bid for an open Senate seat by 12 points.  We haven't had a Democrat elected to any statewide office in the last 12 years.  Democrats did capture Delay's congressional seat in 06 however when no Republican was allowed on the ballot.

When will the state be competitive for a Democratic presidential nominee?  Not anytime soon unless President Obama can get the vote for illegal non citizens.  Too many constitutional and legal barriers.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Absolutely Obama will crack 40% in Texas this year. 

57-42 seems likely. 

Democrats have tried everything in the state.  In 02 they tried the dream team.  A wealthy  Hispanic running for governor spending loads of money running in tandom with a black candidate for the Senate who was characterized as "conservative".  Of course the idea was to use this "dream ticket" to bump up the black and Hispanic vote at the same time that Ron Kirk was portrayed as a "conservative Democrat".  60 minutes ran a puff piece the Sunday before the election portraying Kirk as a "new Democrat".  Rubbish.

Tony Sanchez lost the governor's race by 19 points and Kirk lost his bid for an open Senate seat by 12 points.  We haven't had a Democrat elected to any statewide office in the last 12 years.  Democrats did capture Delay's congressional seat in 06 however when no Republican was allowed on the ballot.

When will the state be competitive for a Democratic presidential nominee?  Not anytime soon unless President Obama can get the vote for illegal non citizens.  Too many constitutional and legal barriers.

I agree that Obama will get over 40% of the vote and 57%-42% seems like a good prediction.  I think 43% might be his ceiling, which is pretty decent considering Dukakis in 1988 and Clinton in 1996 got highs of 43%.  I will be interested to see how well Noriega can do against Cornyn this year, he'll probably end up running in tandem with Obama I think.  The Democrats might have a chance at the Governorship in 2010 I suppose, but probably only with John Sharp or some kind of clone.  I've heard talk of Henry Cuellar running for Governor. 

[Gustaf]

The growing Hispanic vote will obviously make Texas more Democratic (at least as long as the Hispanics remain a Democratic group). Also, Texas is already more Democratic than it appears thanks to Bush home state advantage. Of course, the death of the Texas Democratic party was so resounding that it's gonna take a while to recover. It's not gonna be competitive this year and not for some time to come. But it will be a lot closer than 2004, I believe. Obama will get over 40%.

[ottermax]

We should do this for all the states for every party, or to see how they are trending.

I think Texas will go for the Dems one day, especially if GOP anti-immigration hardliners take charge. However a lot of Texan Hispanics are either not citizens or have not registered. I think Obama can improve on Kerry's numbers, and if he can portray himself as a candidate supportive of immigrants, than he can win over 40%. McCain will do well with Hispanics I think compared to Obama, but who knows what will happen. It all depends on the candidates.

[jesmo]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

sort of true but Kerry only got around 54% of the Hispanic vote nationwide IIRC so it's not a solid a bloc as we think of it / as it should be.  and Obama being black make prevent him from approaching Gore numbers (which was around 60%; plus McCain isn't a wingnut on immigration.  he'll do considerably better among Hispanics than Romney would have.)  but if the GOP keeps moving right on immigration it is only logical that the Hispanic bloc would begin to move away from them.

the other argument is that Hispanics will be viewed as 'White' within the next few decades, much as Irish and Italians were not considered white way back during the immigration waves but were assimilated.  that's why this debate should be interesting.

I doubt Hispanics will ever be viewed as White. Hispanics are much different from Americans culturally, than Irish and Italians were. Spanish will always be spoken as a second language, while Italian and Gaelic slowly died out.

I tend to disagree as many Hispanics view themselves as whites and they share many characteristics with earlier immigrant groups from Europe. In addition English as as a linguistic force especailly in the United States is much too powerful a force to overcome along with the fact that many if not most Latinos desire an English education and a desire to learn the English  language. Although I do think that Latinos in urban areas will become more bilingual then their counterparts in suburban and rural areas and will be quite simlier to Italian or Eastern European communities in urban areas over time.             

Well they do share some characteristics, but they will stay much more Hispanic than Italians stayed Italian just because they are a bigger group and have good contact with family. I think that almost all Hispanics will be bilingual even in 2100, or so. This is certainly not true of Italians. Sure they will assimilate, but not to the extent than earlier Europeans did.

I think you are underestimating the power of assimilation.  Even Obama and Clinton acknowledged the need for immigrants to learn English in the last debate.  Once we get some sort of meaningful immigration reform I would expect there to be more pressure from both government and society for immigrants to assimilate.  If we can get immigration under control within the next president's first term I would expect almost full assimilation (including loss of familial ties and native language) to be gone within two generations.

No way. Hispanics will not loose Family Ties, in the 21st Century. I might see a reduction in the use of Native Language as early as 2040, but I do not think they will loose small parts of their culture, and Hispanics will still be much different from Italians. Remember it took two wars, to strip America of its German heritage in the Midwest, Plains and Texas.

It is a damn shame that the Midwest lost its German Language Heritage.

[Nym90]

If the suburbs start mimicing northern suburbs and the cities start mimicing northern cities, plus the hispanic vote grows, it could happen.

Hard to say when that will happen, though.

[phk]

When only Travis County is allowed to vote.

But it will take awhile, TX Hispanics are more GOP than CA ones are.

[pbrower2a]

If the suburbs start mimicing northern suburbs and the cities start mimicing northern cities, plus the hispanic vote grows, it could happen.

Hard to say when that will happen, though.

Obama wins Texas in 2012 in an Eisenhower-scale landslide. That assumes an effective first term and the likely failure of the GOP to find an opponent more charismatic. Incumbency gives even a poor President an advantage against  a weak opponent. Look at 2004 -- and who expects Obama to be as much a disaster as Dubya?

What matters in Texas is not so much the size of the Hispanic population but instead the size of the Hispanic electorate -- and the youngest voters included a disproportionate number of Hispanics in 2008; that will continue in 2012. African-Americans in Texas are not leaving, and they are not going Republican.

[Psychic Octopus]

2020s seems likely. Dems winning Texas in 2012 is probably a pipe dream. It's unlikely.

[pbrower2a]

Total EV                                 And gets               
                                             
Obama     Wins this state        EV   

228                   PA                    248
248                   NV                    253 
253                   NM                   258
258                   NH                   262
262                   IA                    269
269                   VA                    282  Victory line!
282                   CO                   291
291                   OH                   311
311                   FL                    338
338                   AZ                   348
340                   NC                   363
355                   IN                    374
374                   NE-02              375
375                   MO                   386
386                   MT                    389
389                   ND                    392
392                   SD                    395
395                   NE-01               396
396                   GA                    411
411                   TX                     445