when will Texas be winnable for Democrats?

[© tweed]

when will Texas be winnable for Democrats?  (in Presidential elections)

it should be sooner rather than later - I seem to recall the state is majority-minority now by a slim margin (not sure if that counts undocumenteds or not) and if the GOP continues to use immigration as a wedge issue...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

[© tweed]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

sort of true but Kerry only got around 54% of the Hispanic vote nationwide IIRC so it's not a solid a bloc as we think of it / as it should be.  and Obama being black make prevent him from approaching Gore numbers (which was around 60%; plus McCain isn't a wingnut on immigration.  he'll do considerably better among Hispanics than Romney would have.)  but if the GOP keeps moving right on immigration it is only logical that the Hispanic bloc would begin to move away from them.

the other argument is that Hispanics will be viewed as 'White' within the next few decades, much as Irish and Italians were not considered white way back during the immigration waves but were assimilated.  that's why this debate should be interesting.

[War on Want]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

sort of true but Kerry only got around 54% of the Hispanic vote nationwide IIRC so it's not a solid a bloc as we think of it / as it should be.  and Obama being black make prevent him from approaching Gore numbers (which was around 60%; plus McCain isn't a wingnut on immigration.  he'll do considerably better among Hispanics than Romney would have.)  but if the GOP keeps moving right on immigration it is only logical that the Hispanic bloc would begin to move away from them.

the other argument is that Hispanics will be viewed as 'White' within the next few decades, much as Irish and Italians were not considered white way back during the immigration waves but were assimilated.  that's why this debate should be interesting.

I doubt Hispanics will ever be viewed as White. Hispanics are much different from Americans culturally, than Irish and Italians were. Spanish will always be spoken as a second language, while Italian and Gaelic slowly died out.

[Kevin]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

sort of true but Kerry only got around 54% of the Hispanic vote nationwide IIRC so it's not a solid a bloc as we think of it / as it should be.  and Obama being black make prevent him from approaching Gore numbers (which was around 60%; plus McCain isn't a wingnut on immigration.  he'll do considerably better among Hispanics than Romney would have.)  but if the GOP keeps moving right on immigration it is only logical that the Hispanic bloc would begin to move away from them.

the other argument is that Hispanics will be viewed as 'White' within the next few decades, much as Irish and Italians were not considered white way back during the immigration waves but were assimilated.  that's why this debate should be interesting.

I doubt Hispanics will ever be viewed as White. Hispanics are much different from Americans culturally, than Irish and Italians were. Spanish will always be spoken as a second language, while Italian and Gaelic slowly died out.

I tend to disagree as many Hispanics view themselves as whites and they share many characteristics with earlier immigrant groups from Europe. In addition English as as a linguistic force especailly in the United States is much too powerful a force to overcome along with the fact that many if not most Latinos desire an English education and a desire to learn the English  language. Although I do think that Latinos in urban areas will become more bilingual then their counterparts in suburban and rural areas and will be quite simlier to Italian or Eastern European communities in urban areas over time.             

[War on Want]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

sort of true but Kerry only got around 54% of the Hispanic vote nationwide IIRC so it's not a solid a bloc as we think of it / as it should be.  and Obama being black make prevent him from approaching Gore numbers (which was around 60%; plus McCain isn't a wingnut on immigration.  he'll do considerably better among Hispanics than Romney would have.)  but if the GOP keeps moving right on immigration it is only logical that the Hispanic bloc would begin to move away from them.

the other argument is that Hispanics will be viewed as 'White' within the next few decades, much as Irish and Italians were not considered white way back during the immigration waves but were assimilated.  that's why this debate should be interesting.

I doubt Hispanics will ever be viewed as White. Hispanics are much different from Americans culturally, than Irish and Italians were. Spanish will always be spoken as a second language, while Italian and Gaelic slowly died out.

I tend to disagree as many Hispanics view themselves as whites and they share many characteristics with earlier immigrant groups from Europe. In addition English as as a linguistic force especailly in the United States is much too powerful a force to overcome along with the fact that many if not most Latinos desire an English education and a desire to learn the English  language. Although I do think that Latinos in urban areas will become more bilingual then their counterparts in suburban and rural areas and will be quite simlier to Italian or Eastern European communities in urban areas over time.             

Well they do share some characteristics, but they will stay much more Hispanic than Italians stayed Italian just because they are a bigger group and have good contact with family. I think that almost all Hispanics will be bilingual even in 2100, or so. This is certainly not true of Italians. Sure they will assimilate, but not to the extent than earlier Europeans did.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Um, not really. Italians are medditeranean/latins and refused to assimilate fully for a few generations. Latins are doing the same but unlike the Italians, anti-catholicism is MUCH WEAKER than then, intermarriage is far more acceptable so it's more possible to assimilate. I'm middle class, speak only english and yet I'm somehow not white because of having a spanish last name? *facepalm*

[Padfoot]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

sort of true but Kerry only got around 54% of the Hispanic vote nationwide IIRC so it's not a solid a bloc as we think of it / as it should be.  and Obama being black make prevent him from approaching Gore numbers (which was around 60%; plus McCain isn't a wingnut on immigration.  he'll do considerably better among Hispanics than Romney would have.)  but if the GOP keeps moving right on immigration it is only logical that the Hispanic bloc would begin to move away from them.

the other argument is that Hispanics will be viewed as 'White' within the next few decades, much as Irish and Italians were not considered white way back during the immigration waves but were assimilated.  that's why this debate should be interesting.

I doubt Hispanics will ever be viewed as White. Hispanics are much different from Americans culturally, than Irish and Italians were. Spanish will always be spoken as a second language, while Italian and Gaelic slowly died out.

I tend to disagree as many Hispanics view themselves as whites and they share many characteristics with earlier immigrant groups from Europe. In addition English as as a linguistic force especailly in the United States is much too powerful a force to overcome along with the fact that many if not most Latinos desire an English education and a desire to learn the English  language. Although I do think that Latinos in urban areas will become more bilingual then their counterparts in suburban and rural areas and will be quite simlier to Italian or Eastern European communities in urban areas over time.             

Well they do share some characteristics, but they will stay much more Hispanic than Italians stayed Italian just because they are a bigger group and have good contact with family. I think that almost all Hispanics will be bilingual even in 2100, or so. This is certainly not true of Italians. Sure they will assimilate, but not to the extent than earlier Europeans did.

I think you are underestimating the power of assimilation.  Even Obama and Clinton acknowledged the need for immigrants to learn English in the last debate.  Once we get some sort of meaningful immigration reform I would expect there to be more pressure from both government and society for immigrants to assimilate.  If we can get immigration under control within the next president's first term I would expect almost full assimilation (including loss of familial ties and native language) to be gone within two generations.

[opebo]

Well, just to put a number on it, lets say 2016.

[Sam Spade]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

If Hispanic turnout was higher (and keep in mind a certain % of Texas Hispanics can't vote period, as illegals), then it might be enough to push an exceptionally strong candidate over the line, but that's about it.

One of the problems with Democrats using the Hispanic vote in Texas to make gains recently is that Republicans simply perform much stronger among these voters (esp. the rural and suburban ones) than they did even as short of a time ago as the 1980s.  Oddly enough, 2006 was not really an exception to this, go figure (unless you want to consider 2004 the rule, and I wouldn't).

[Person Man]

So, the Democrat's hopes are for Hispanics to turn out. The Republicans hope that these Hispanics become more white-washed.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think Obama puts just about every state in play, so I'll say 2008.

[Хahar 🤔]

2012. If the Republicans nominate a terrible candidate. If the Democrats move away from libertarianism, I could see TX as a swing state in the 2020s.

[Frodo]

If and when you can get Latino turnout anywhere near their black counterparts.  And even then it's iffy. 

[War on Want]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

sort of true but Kerry only got around 54% of the Hispanic vote nationwide IIRC so it's not a solid a bloc as we think of it / as it should be.  and Obama being black make prevent him from approaching Gore numbers (which was around 60%; plus McCain isn't a wingnut on immigration.  he'll do considerably better among Hispanics than Romney would have.)  but if the GOP keeps moving right on immigration it is only logical that the Hispanic bloc would begin to move away from them.

the other argument is that Hispanics will be viewed as 'White' within the next few decades, much as Irish and Italians were not considered white way back during the immigration waves but were assimilated.  that's why this debate should be interesting.

I doubt Hispanics will ever be viewed as White. Hispanics are much different from Americans culturally, than Irish and Italians were. Spanish will always be spoken as a second language, while Italian and Gaelic slowly died out.

I tend to disagree as many Hispanics view themselves as whites and they share many characteristics with earlier immigrant groups from Europe. In addition English as as a linguistic force especailly in the United States is much too powerful a force to overcome along with the fact that many if not most Latinos desire an English education and a desire to learn the English  language. Although I do think that Latinos in urban areas will become more bilingual then their counterparts in suburban and rural areas and will be quite simlier to Italian or Eastern European communities in urban areas over time.             

Well they do share some characteristics, but they will stay much more Hispanic than Italians stayed Italian just because they are a bigger group and have good contact with family. I think that almost all Hispanics will be bilingual even in 2100, or so. This is certainly not true of Italians. Sure they will assimilate, but not to the extent than earlier Europeans did.

I think you are underestimating the power of assimilation.  Even Obama and Clinton acknowledged the need for immigrants to learn English in the last debate.  Once we get some sort of meaningful immigration reform I would expect there to be more pressure from both government and society for immigrants to assimilate.  If we can get immigration under control within the next president's first term I would expect almost full assimilation (including loss of familial ties and native language) to be gone within two generations.

No way. Hispanics will not loose Family Ties, in the 21st Century. I might see a reduction in the use of Native Language as early as 2040, but I do not think they will loose small parts of their culture, and Hispanics will still be much different from Italians. Remember it took two wars, to strip America of its German heritage in the Midwest, Plains and Texas.

[Smash255]

When only Austin is allowed to vote...


In all seriousness the GOP approach to immigration may play a big role.  McCain may ease some of the problems the GOP is set to have with the Hispanic vote somewhat, however if the GOP as a whole continues its current immigration platform, the Hispanic vote will be even stronger for the Dems than it was in 06 & prior to the gains Bush had and perhaps make the state competitive by 2016 or so.  It still wouldn't be a Democratic state and would be GOP leaning, but a state the Dems could win with a 5 point or so national win by then.

[Person Man]

When only Austin is allowed to vote...


In all seriousness the GOP approach to immigration may play a big role.  McCain may ease some of the problems the GOP is set to have with the Hispanic vote somewhat, however if the GOP as a whole continues its current immigration platform, the Hispanic vote will be even stronger for the Dems than it was in 06 & prior to the gains Bush had and perhaps make the state competitive by 2016 or so.  It still wouldn't be a Democratic state and would be GOP leaning, but a state the Dems could win with a 5 point or so national win by then.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My predictions for 2008:

TEXAS -
56% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama


TEXAS SENATE -
54% (R) Cornyn
43% (D) Noriega

[Sam Spade]

If only I knew this much about Texas' future.

[Verily]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

sort of true but Kerry only got around 54% of the Hispanic vote nationwide IIRC so it's not a solid a bloc as we think of it / as it should be.  and Obama being black make prevent him from approaching Gore numbers (which was around 60%; plus McCain isn't a wingnut on immigration.  he'll do considerably better among Hispanics than Romney would have.)  but if the GOP keeps moving right on immigration it is only logical that the Hispanic bloc would begin to move away from them.

the other argument is that Hispanics will be viewed as 'White' within the next few decades, much as Irish and Italians were not considered white way back during the immigration waves but were assimilated.  that's why this debate should be interesting.

I doubt Hispanics will ever be viewed as White. Hispanics are much different from Americans culturally, than Irish and Italians were. Spanish will always be spoken as a second language, while Italian and Gaelic slowly died out.

Doesn't see why they would keep Spanish around. I know plenty of third-generation Puerto Rican and Mexican immigrants around here who only know what Spanish they learned in high school. The language is only retained when they live in Spanish-only ghettos in places like Texas and California.

[Nym90]

A landslide Democratic victory would pull in Texas. Remember that Bush had the home state advantage factor inflating GOP numbers....I'd say the Dem would win it if they win by 12-14 points nationally.

If Obama has a strong first term and is popular, I could see him winning Texas in 2012, depending on who the GOP nominee is, of course. 2008 is out of the question though Obama could get within 7-8 points of McCain in Texas in the best case scenario.

[Sam Spade]

It would be now if Hispanic turnout wasn't absolutely wretched, so who knows.

sort of true but Kerry only got around 54% of the Hispanic vote nationwide IIRC so it's not a solid a bloc as we think of it / as it should be.  and Obama being black make prevent him from approaching Gore numbers (which was around 60%; plus McCain isn't a wingnut on immigration.  he'll do considerably better among Hispanics than Romney would have.)  but if the GOP keeps moving right on immigration it is only logical that the Hispanic bloc would begin to move away from them.

the other argument is that Hispanics will be viewed as 'White' within the next few decades, much as Irish and Italians were not considered white way back during the immigration waves but were assimilated.  that's why this debate should be interesting.

I doubt Hispanics will ever be viewed as White. Hispanics are much different from Americans culturally, than Irish and Italians were. Spanish will always be spoken as a second language, while Italian and Gaelic slowly died out.

Doesn't see why they would keep Spanish around. I know plenty of third-generation Puerto Rican and Mexican immigrants around here who only know what Spanish they learned in high school. The language is only retained when they live in Spanish-only ghettos in places like Texas and California.

NYC, in my experience, has a greater amount of ghettoization of minority groups than Texas (having lived in the Texas barrio and traversed the NYC one).  I can't speak to Jersey. 

The first-generation (not second or third-generation) Hispanics in the Texas barrio have to learn to partially communicate in English in order to be able to get jobs and advance in life.  Their children (when born in the US) are highly effective translators.  Once we get to third generation, they speak English as good as most Texans do.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

By 2020, it should be competitive but lean GOP, like NC is now.  By 2032, I could see it becoming Virginia, with the Democrats having a chance to win.

[Aizen]

I don't know when exactly but it showing signs that it could be competitive sometime in the future. I'm not going to stupidly say 2032 or whatnot because there is no way we know what the country will be like in 25 years.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I don't know when exactly but it showing signs that it could be competitive sometime in the future. I'm not going to stupidly say 2032 or whatnot because there is no way we know what the country will be like in 25 years.

Ouch.