Rasmussen-Texas: Clinton 47 Obama 44

[© tweed]

on the main page.  you have to be a paid subscriber to see all the details.

[Person Man]

Let's see if this can hold up.

[Flying Dog]

Um.. wasn't it like 56-34 just a week ago?

[John Dibble]

Um.. wasn't it like 56-34 just a week ago?

Sucks for Clinton, doesn't it?

[© tweed]

Um.. wasn't it like 56-34 just a week ago?

54-38

[Flying Dog]

Um.. wasn't it like 56-34 just a week ago?

54-38

Oh, but still....

[TheresNoMoney]

on the main page.  you have to be a paid subscriber to see all the details.

Not anymore you don't.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen overestimated Obama both in Arizona and California.

So Clinton could still win TX with 5-10% ...

[Flying Dog]

Rasmussen overestimated Obama both in Arizona and California.

So Clinton could still win TX with 5-10% ...

She very well could. However, it's not only Rasmussen, SUSA has Clinton up 50-45 and that other poll had her "up" 46-45.

[TheresNoMoney]

Rasmussen overestimated Obama both in Arizona and California.

So Clinton could still win TX with 5-10% ...

Not with almost 2 weeks before the actual election. Obama will be leading in the polls sometime next week.

[Flying Dog]

Fifty-two percent (52%) of those surveyed were women, 48% men. Forty-seven percent (47%) were over 50 and 13% were under 30. Fifty percent (50%) were white, 31% Hispanic or Latino, and 19% African-American.

[Tender Branson]

Fifty-two percent (52%) of those surveyed were women, 48% men. Forty-seven percent (47%) were over 50 and 13% were under 30. Fifty percent (50%) were white, 31% Hispanic or Latino, and 19% African-American.

52% women ... ? It was more like 60% women in every state so far.

[agcatter]

Little light on the women - probably still a slight edge for Hillary in the state.  However, winning the state by 5 pts are so won't help Hillary due to the distribution of district delegates.  That probably only translates into 50-50 on the delegate split in Texas.

Hillary needs a really good debate performance tonight.

[Verily]

Fifty-two percent (52%) of those surveyed were women, 48% men. Forty-seven percent (47%) were over 50 and 13% were under 30. Fifty percent (50%) were white, 31% Hispanic or Latino, and 19% African-American.

52% women ... ? It was more like 60% women in every state so far.

There are always oddities like that. Looking at the crosstabs, Clinton leads substantially among 18-24s. Not bloody likely.

[Flying Dog]

    Turnout on the first day of early voting was up all across Texas, according to initial numbers from the Secretary of State’s office. But Houston and Dallas were off the charts — the numbers show a 10-fold increase over 2004. In Harris County four years ago, only 728 people showed up for the Democratic primary on the first day of early voting. Yesterday it was 9,243.

    In Dallas, the first-day turnout jumped from 913 in 2004 to 8,615 yesterday. That would seem good news for Obama. Other urban counties such as Travis (Austin) and Bexar (San Antonio) showed six-fold increases. In El Paso, it tripled.

    Turnout was up too in the Rio Grande Valley, an expected Clinton stronghold, but the increase wasn’t as dramatic. In Hidalgo County, the number of voters rose from 3,858 (2004) to 5,793 (2008).

    David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager, told Texas reporters this afternoon on a conference call that the campaign has emphasized ushering supporters to the polls early and was very encouraged by the early voting numbers so far. Early voting ends Feb. 29.

[Joe Republic]

This time last week, Rasmussen had Clinton up 16 points.  Today, Rasmussen says she's up 3 points.

Interesting.

[Stranger in a strange land]

by all accounts, Obama has a great ground game. I think he could actually win this one. Either way, it will be close and Hillary NEEDS to win to stay in the race.

[Eraserhead]

Hopefully they have the sense to drop out if she loses Texas. I think she will, by the way.

[Cubby]

    Turnout on the first day of early voting was up all across Texas, according to initial numbers from the Secretary of State’s office. But Houston and Dallas were off the charts — the numbers show a 10-fold increase over 2004. In Harris County four years ago, only 728 people showed up for the Democratic primary on the first day of early voting. Yesterday it was 9,243.

    In Dallas, the first-day turnout jumped from 913 in 2004 to 8,615 yesterday. That would seem good news for Obama. Other urban counties such as Travis (Austin) and Bexar (San Antonio) showed six-fold increases. In El Paso, it tripled.

    Turnout was up too in the Rio Grande Valley, an expected Clinton stronghold, but the increase wasn’t as dramatic. In Hidalgo County, the number of voters rose from 3,858 (2004) to 5,793 (2008)....

I'm not a fan of early voting, partly because I think it helped Clinton too much in California. But those numbers look good for Obama.

[Downwinder]

those early turn-out numbers are huge for Obama.  I think he's going to win Texas as well.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Hopefully have the sense to drop out if she loses Texas. I think she will, by the way.

I think she'll stay as long as she possibly can, whether that means until she's mathematically eliminated or until the convention, or just until she runs out of money, isn't clear.

Apparently Harold Ickes has a brilliant plan to poach Obama's pledged delegates, but why a delegate would abandon a successful campaign for one that's clearly sinking hasn't been explained in a satisfactory way.

[Lief 🗽]

    Turnout on the first day of early voting was up all across Texas, according to initial numbers from the Secretary of State’s office. But Houston and Dallas were off the charts — the numbers show a 10-fold increase over 2004. In Harris County four years ago, only 728 people showed up for the Democratic primary on the first day of early voting. Yesterday it was 9,243.

    In Dallas, the first-day turnout jumped from 913 in 2004 to 8,615 yesterday. That would seem good news for Obama. Other urban counties such as Travis (Austin) and Bexar (San Antonio) showed six-fold increases. In El Paso, it tripled.

    Turnout was up too in the Rio Grande Valley, an expected Clinton stronghold, but the increase wasn’t as dramatic. In Hidalgo County, the number of voters rose from 3,858 (2004) to 5,793 (2008)....

I'm not a fan of early voting, partly because I think it helped Clinton too much in California. But those numbers look good for Obama.

Early voting in Texas is different from early voting in California. Obama should expect to get most of his margin over Clinton from the early voters.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

by all accounts, Obama has a great ground game. I think he could actually win this one. Either way, it will be close and Hillary NEEDS to win to stay in the race.

I move to insert Big after "NEEDS"