Mississippi Senate 2008: Shows (D) exits race, leaving it Musgrove vs. Wicker

[Adlai Stevenson]

Former Congressman Ronnie Shows (D) quit the US Senate special election this week. Shows said he could not raise the money needed to compete against interim US Senator Roger Wicker (R) and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D). Shows' exit will make the contest more competitive, as there will now only be one major Dem challenger in the race against the GOP incumbent.

http://www.politics1.com/

[7,052,770]

THANK YOU RONNIE SHOWS!

YOU TRULY DO HAVE THE BEST INTEREST OF MISSISSIPPI AND AMERICA AT HEART!


Now it's time to buckle down, work hard, and send the Republicans a clear message that cheating doesn't work by electing Ronnie Musgrove as our next senator!

[AndrewTX]

Right

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

GOOD JOB RONNIE SHOWS FOR LEAVING A RACE YOU HAD NO CHANCE TO WIN ANYWAYS

[Rococo4]

GOOD JOB RONNIE SHOWS FOR LEAVING A RACE YOU HAD NO CHANCE TO WIN ANYWAYS

exactly

[Jake]

Like thinking the Republicans have a chance at an open seat in New York or Vermont. lol

[Erc]

Will this election will be held in November, or did they decide to obey the law down in MS?

[Verily]

Will this election will be held in November, or did they decide to obey the law down in MS?

In the interest of partisan advantage, the law will not be respected.

[Verily]

Like thinking the Republicans have a chance at an open seat in New York or Vermont. lol

Quite a few people seemed to think that Daniel Patrick Moynihan's seat could go Republican in 2000...

[Sam Spade]

I wish Musgrove luck, he's going to need it.  Of course, I don't this Wicker fellow very well, so I will reserve judgment until that point.

[Jake]

I assume we both know the result?

[Verily]

I assume we both know the result?

True. I just thought it worth mentioning.

[7,052,770]

Like thinking the Republicans have a chance at an open seat in New York or Vermont. lol

Um, Republicans have held Senate seats in those states in this decade...

And if a Republican was already able to be elected lt. gov. and governor of one of those states, it would be logical to assume that he would have a chance at a Senate seat when running against a Congressman.

[Jake]

So, we can expect Musgrove to join the Republicans once in Congress?

Whether or not they won races when they were incumbents in the 90s is not what I'm getting at. It's almost impossible to win open seat races in safe states for the other party absent truly exceptional circumstances. You know this.

[Sam Spade]

So, we can expect Musgrove to join the Republicans once in Congress?

Whether or not they won races when they were incumbents in the 90s is not what I'm getting at. It's almost impossible to win open seat races in safe states for the other party absent truly exceptional circumstances. You know this.

I should also mention - it doesn't help Musgrove that Cochran's on the ballot along with Wicker.

[Jake]

No, I can't imagine Musgrove winning many votes from folks who just marked McCain

• , Cochran
• .

[7,052,770]

No, I can't imagine Musgrove winning many votes from folks who just marked McCain

• , Cochran
• .

Exactly.  That's why in addition to the majority of Mississippians voting for Haley Barbour and 6 other statewide Republican officers, the Republicans knocked off AG Jim Hood, increased their lead in the State Senate, and took over the State House.
Oh wait, that didn't happen at all.  Because Mississippians split their ballots all the time.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Like thinking the Republicans have a chance at an open seat in New York or Vermont. lol

Um, Republicans have held Senate seats in those states in this decade...

New York?  No, sir.  Al D'Amato left office in January 1999.

[Jake]

No, I can't imagine Musgrove winning many votes from folks who just marked McCain

• , Cochran
• .

Exactly.  That's why in addition to the majority of Mississippians voting for Haley Barbour and 6 other statewide Republican officers, the Republicans knocked off AG Jim Hood, increased their lead in the State Senate, and took over the State House.
Oh wait, that didn't happen at all.  Because Mississippians split their ballots all the time.

So, they voted for an incumbent alongside seven other incumbents? Big News. That means that a challenger will be able to win an open Senate seat with another Senate race and a Presidential race on the ballot.

So, Musgrove is going to cut margins of something like 56-59% McCain down to something winnable for him and do the same for Cochran's 70-80%? Against a conservative Congressman with no scandal issues at all who now has ten months to gain incumbent name recognition?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The odds of Musgrove winning the open seat are pretty comparable to the odds of Ehrlich winning an open seat in Maryland.  That is, not very good.

[7,052,770]

I'd estimate Musgrove has a 1-in-3 shot right now.

[Jake]

I'd estimate Musgrove has a 1-in-3 shot right now.

Of losing by under five points.

[HardRCafé]

Musgrove should drop out so Eaves can give Wicker a real race.

[Rococo4]

The odds of Musgrove winning the open seat are pretty comparable to the odds of Ehrlich winning an open seat in Maryland.  That is, not very good.

Good comparison, though I would say Erlich would have a slightly better chance.

[HardRCafé]

Six of one, half a dozen of the other.  Ehrlich would likely lose by double digits but could conceivably pull an upset.  Musgrove would likely keep it to single digits but lose in any scenario.