1992-Dukakis/Baucus v. Bush/Quayle

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What would have happened if the Democrats had once again nominated Michael Dukakis for President, and he selected Montana Senator Max Baucus to be his running mate.  Ross Perot decides not to run, and there are no major third parties, and no real dissent in the GOP and Democratic ranks.

[Kevin]

Bush/Quayle: 311
Dukakis/Baucus: 227

I will explain on some of the states. First, an overall summary. Bush wins by a comfortable margin. With no Perot in the race, and Dukakis being a weaker candidate than Bill Clinton, Bush wins a comfortable victory.

However, Bush does not do near as well as he did in 1988. The no new taxes takes its toll on him but not as bad as it did in real life in 1992. Dukakis, being a weaker democratic candidate, causes him to loose Michigan by a narrow margin to Bush. Bush also wins Wisconsin, which was close in real life in 1992. Tennessee and Arkansas are surprising wins for Dukakis. Tennessee and Arkansas never went very big for Reagan or Bush in the 1980's. Arkansas nearly went to Carter in 1980, as did Tennessee. In 1984, Tennessee was the only southern state to fall under the 60 percentile in the south for Reagan and Arkansas was not Reagan's best state. In 1988, again Tennessee and Arkansas fell under the 60 percentile. Plus with the full endorsement by Al Gore and Bill Clinton for Dukakis, this is enough to swing the states for Dukakis.

On the West Coast, Dukakis carries Washington by a good margin. Bush makes California and Oregon close after a Reagan endorsement for Bush. Though the Reagan endorsement does not mean enough to swing the states.

Tennessee and Arkansas wouldn't have swung under Dukakis, However Michigan and California would have. I could agree with you about Wisconsin.     

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Even though I don't buy that it took Perot for Clinton to win, I still think Dukakis would lose.  He would be able to hold all of his '88 states, and would win most of the close states from '88.  Baucus provides a great help in the Midwest, and is able to swing Montana, which was close in '88.  I think Bush just barely pulls it out, 274-264.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Bush/Quayle would have won against Dukakis/Baucus in this election. Thus the Republican Revolution would never have occured and Governor Bill Clinton would have won the 1996 Presidential Election over Vice President J. Dan Quayle.