NC: Public Policy Polling: McCain ahead of both Obama and Clinton by 5%

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: North Carolina President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-02-18

Summary: D: 42%, R: 47%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This definitely means the Democrats will blow out this state.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Two more polling places are going to come out with polls from NC in the next week or two. So we'll see if these numbers are right.

[TheresNoMoney]

Not bad.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Also note, Obama polling numbers seem to  jump by 5% or more after he campaigns there.

[tarheel-leftist85]

For once, they stratified their sample correctly.  Obama can expect to get more than 78% of the vote from African-Americans (and I wouldn't be surprised to see African-Americans make up as much as 28% of the electorate in the state, which means, Obama wins).  For whites, I would seem to think Obama can manage (at least) 33% against McCain since he does against Huckabee--my prediction is he'll get between 34 and 36%.  Thus, he starts out around 49.5% with the most conservative estimate.  I think he'll get between 50.7 and 52.1%

[Sam Spade]

Generically, I suspect the increased turnout from blacks (and some professionals no doubt) will probably balance out the anti-black poor white sentiment (the Jesse Helms vote).  Clinton was not that well-liked in NC anyways.

So, both candidates probably perform pretty evenly, but it'll probably take a considerable popular vote margin for a Dem to win here - Clinton couldn't do it in 1996 with his.

[Tender Branson]

Looks credible, but in NC I expect Obama to get 47% at most in November - which would still be a good result.