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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Where is my Freistaat Preußen avatar?, Apocrypha)
  1980: George H.W. Bush (R) vs. Ted Kennedy (D)
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Author Topic: 1980: George H.W. Bush (R) vs. Ted Kennedy (D)  (Read 4437 times)
Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« on: February 15, 2008, 02:06:18 am »

How would the 1980 Presidential Election turn out if these were the tickets?

Republican

President: Former Congressman, George H.W. Bush of Texas
Vice President: Senator, Howard Baker of Tennessee

Democratic

President: Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts
Vice President: Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia

Discuss with maps.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2008, 02:21:58 am »
« Edited: February 16, 2008, 03:06:07 pm by auburntiger »

maybe this:



From 1976, Kennedy pick up Connecticut - neighboring state effect. Oregon and Washington always seemed to like northeastern liberals. California is VERY close though to going Kennedy. New Jersey is also very close to switching.


Bush picks up the entire South. Carter was very unpopular, and Kennedy's challenging the native son in the primaries and defeating him there probably eliminated his shot of carrying anything south of the Mason-Dixon line, except WV and MD, which were core Dem states at the time.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2008, 08:25:25 am »

Kennedy wins, 277-261.
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GPORTER
gporter
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« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2008, 08:29:14 am »


Hack.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2008, 08:31:01 am »


I was expecting this; how so?
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GPORTER
gporter
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« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2008, 08:35:45 am »


Well, you always find a way to make a pointless map that gives a democratic victory. You almost always give a democratic victory.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2008, 08:36:40 am »


What faults do you find with this map?
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GPORTER
gporter
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« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2008, 08:39:31 am »


Many, but to name a few...

Georgia: they would have supported Bush because Carter had been defeated in the primaries.
California: had voted republican for every election other than 1964 up to that point since 1952. JFK lost California in 1960, why would another Kennedy carry it twenty years later?
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2008, 08:44:33 am »


Many, but to name a few...

Georgia: they would have supported Bush because Carter had been defeated in the primaries.
California: had voted republican for every election other than 1964 up to that point since 1952. JFK lost California in 1960, why would another Kennedy carry it twenty years later?

Georgia would vote Democratic because of Nunn, but very closely.  California voted GOP because, in every election save 1976, when it was very close, a Californian was on the ticket.
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GPORTER
gporter
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« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2008, 08:46:50 am »


Many, but to name a few...

Georgia: they would have supported Bush because Carter had been defeated in the primaries.
California: had voted republican for every election other than 1964 up to that point since 1952. JFK lost California in 1960, why would another Kennedy carry it twenty years later?

Georgia would vote Democratic because of Nunn, but very closely.  California voted GOP because, in every election save 1976, when it was very close, a Californian was on the ticket.

Your statement on California made no sense what so ever. And I still am not buying your idea on Georgia.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2008, 08:47:53 am »


Many, but to name a few...

Georgia: they would have supported Bush because Carter had been defeated in the primaries.
California: had voted republican for every election other than 1964 up to that point since 1952. JFK lost California in 1960, why would another Kennedy carry it twenty years later?

Georgia would vote Democratic because of Nunn, but very closely.  California voted GOP because, in every election save 1976, when it was very close, a Californian was on the ticket.

Your statement on California made no sense what so ever. And I still am not buying your idea on Georgia.

It made perfect sense: California voted for their favorite sons.  And I don't care if you buy my opinion on Georgia; it is my idea.
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GPORTER
gporter
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« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2008, 08:49:34 am »


Many, but to name a few...

Georgia: they would have supported Bush because Carter had been defeated in the primaries.
California: had voted republican for every election other than 1964 up to that point since 1952. JFK lost California in 1960, why would another Kennedy carry it twenty years later?

Georgia would vote Democratic because of Nunn, but very closely.  California voted GOP because, in every election save 1976, when it was very close, a Californian was on the ticket.

Your statement on California made no sense what so ever. And I still am not buying your idea on Georgia.

It made perfect sense: California voted for their favorite sons.  And I don't care if you buy my opinion on Georgia; it is my idea.

There is no person from California on either ticket in this scenario.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2008, 08:50:13 am »


Many, but to name a few...

Georgia: they would have supported Bush because Carter had been defeated in the primaries.
California: had voted republican for every election other than 1964 up to that point since 1952. JFK lost California in 1960, why would another Kennedy carry it twenty years later?

Georgia would vote Democratic because of Nunn, but very closely.  California voted GOP because, in every election save 1976, when it was very close, a Californian was on the ticket.

Your statement on California made no sense what so ever. And I still am not buying your idea on Georgia.

It made perfect sense: California voted for their favorite sons.  And I don't care if you buy my opinion on Georgia; it is my idea.

There is no person from California on either ticket in this scenario.

Which is exactly why they voted Democratic.
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GPORTER
gporter
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« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2008, 08:55:55 am »


Many, but to name a few...

Georgia: they would have supported Bush because Carter had been defeated in the primaries.
California: had voted republican for every election other than 1964 up to that point since 1952. JFK lost California in 1960, why would another Kennedy carry it twenty years later?

Georgia would vote Democratic because of Nunn, but very closely.  California voted GOP because, in every election save 1976, when it was very close, a Californian was on the ticket.

Your statement on California made no sense what so ever. And I still am not buying your idea on Georgia.

It made perfect sense: California voted for their favorite sons.  And I don't care if you buy my opinion on Georgia; it is my idea.

There is no person from California on either ticket in this scenario.

Which is exactly why they voted Democratic.

There was no person on the GOP ticket from California in 1976 either.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2008, 02:57:14 pm »

Which is exactly why they voted Democratic.
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2008, 03:20:20 pm »



George Bush/Howard Baker (R): 374 EV;48.3% of the PV
Edward Kennedy/Sam Nunn (D): 164 EV; 42.3% of the PV
Ed Clarke/David Koch (Lib.): 0 EV; 9.4% of the PV
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GPORTER
gporter
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« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2008, 04:31:09 pm »


You make absolutely no sense.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2008, 04:33:39 pm »

California leaned Democratic except when there was a Native Son on the GOP side.  With no Californian on the ticket, they voted for the Democrats.
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Kevin
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« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2008, 05:14:45 pm »

California leaned Democratic except when there was a Native Son on the GOP side.  With no Californian on the ticket, they voted for the Democrats.

California would be a toss up this case, However it most likely would have voted Republican since there is a unliked Democratic President in the White House and with California voting Republican in 1976 what makes you think a Democrat even Kennedy could win it in 1980?

Also no way would Georgia have voted for Ted Kennedy even with a Georgian on the ticket.

In addition no way NJ would ether since Bush is a moderate and some of the same things with CA apply here too. 
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Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #19 on: February 15, 2008, 06:00:41 pm »

Here's my thoughts on this possible 1980 scenario:



George H.W. Bush/Howard H. Baker (R): 420 EV, 54%
Edward M. Kennedy/Sam Nunn (D): 118 EV, 46%
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GPORTER
gporter
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« Reply #20 on: February 16, 2008, 09:26:32 am »

California leaned Democratic except when there was a Native Son on the GOP side.  With no Californian on the ticket, they voted for the Democrats.

California would be a toss up this case, However it most likely would have voted Republican since there is a unliked Democratic President in the White House and with California voting Republican in 1976 what makes you think a Democrat even Kennedy could win it in 1980?

Also no way would Georgia have voted for Ted Kennedy even with a Georgian on the ticket.

In addition no way NJ would ether since Bush is a moderate and some of the same things with CA apply here too. 

Thank you. I hope Warner hears that.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2008, 11:03:13 am »

California leaned Democratic except when there was a Native Son on the GOP side.  With no Californian on the ticket, they voted for the Democrats.

California would be a toss up this case, However it most likely would have voted Republican since there is a unliked Democratic President in the White House and with California voting Republican in 1976 what makes you think a Democrat even Kennedy could win it in 1980?

Also no way would Georgia have voted for Ted Kennedy even with a Georgian on the ticket.

In addition no way NJ would ether since Bush is a moderate and some of the same things with CA apply here too. 

Thank you. I hope Warner hears that.

That is certainly better logic than calling me a hack Tongue  Have you ever tried stating your actual reasons?
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GPORTER
gporter
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« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2008, 11:40:43 am »

California leaned Democratic except when there was a Native Son on the GOP side.  With no Californian on the ticket, they voted for the Democrats.

California would be a toss up this case, However it most likely would have voted Republican since there is a unliked Democratic President in the White House and with California voting Republican in 1976 what makes you think a Democrat even Kennedy could win it in 1980?

Also no way would Georgia have voted for Ted Kennedy even with a Georgian on the ticket.

In addition no way NJ would ether since Bush is a moderate and some of the same things with CA apply here too. 

Thank you. I hope Warner hears that.

That is certainly better logic than calling me a hack Tongue  Have you ever tried stating your actual reasons?


I almost always give an actual reason, you just do not want to hear what I am saying when I do give an actual reason. As a result, you call me a hack.
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Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #23 on: February 16, 2008, 05:04:34 pm »

Gporter may I ask do you still don't know how to create an Electoral College map? It's pretty damn easy if you know how to do it. You go to the home page of the Uselectionatlas and scroll down to Past Election Results, Election Data, Tools and you'll find Electoral College Calculator. If you cannot find it, I don't know what's wrong with you.
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