OH Quinnipiac Univ: Clinton Double Digit Lead

[exopolitician]

Quinnipiac Univ. Ohio Democrats Poll:

Clinton: 55%
Obama: 34%

[Keystone Phil]

Does Obama have any HOPE here?

[exopolitician]

Does Obama have any HOPE here?

Its possible im sure, I dont know how accurate this poll is anyways I got it from MSNBC. Its pretty much the same numbers in Pennsylvania for Clinton.

[AndrewTX]

Honestly, I now just stop listening to the news, and any polls when it comes to anything between Clinton and Obama. They're never right anymore, lol!

[exopolitician]

She has a 20 point lead among women and whites in Ohio according to this poll. Obama wins among men and obviously, blacks.

[agcatter]

Obama better do better than this.

[Eraserhead]

lol @ racist Ohio.

[Reaganfan]

lol @ racist Ohio.

Why do you have to say that? Can't it be that the Democratic voters in Ohio want a candidate with a little more substance?

[Keystone Phil]

lol @ racist Ohio.

LOL @ idiot Obama supporters who believe that if you don't support him, you must be racist.

Oh, and if Obama is the nominee, I hope you guys keep up stuff like that. Blame everything on race. McCain = President-elect.

[Eraserhead]

lol @ racist Ohio.

LOL @ idiot Obama supporters who believe that if you don't support him, you must be racist.

Oh, and if Obama is the nominee, I hope you guys keep up stuff like that. Blame everything on race. McCain = President-elect.

lol @ idiot McCain supporters.

[Keystone Phil]

lol @ racist Ohio.

LOL @ idiot Obama supporters who believe that if you don't support him, you must be racist.

Oh, and if Obama is the nominee, I hope you guys keep up stuff like that. Blame everything on race. McCain = President-elect.

lol @ idiot McCain supporters.

Keep blaming everything on racism and that will definitley happen. You think you're going to win with your constant whining about the big bad white people in OH and PA? Give me a break.

[Angel of Death]

It's not racism, it's Hillary's perceived strength on economic issues based on her husband's tenure.

[Aizen]

lol @ this topic

[Verily]

It's not racism, it's Hillary's perceived strength on economic issues based on her husband's tenure.

Given Ohio's irrational rage over NAFTA, this seems somewhat dubious. But perhaps Ohioans have poor memories.

[Eleden]

It's not racism, it's Hillary's perceived strength on economic issues based on her husband's tenure.

Given Ohio's irrational rage over NAFTA, this seems somewhat dubious. But perhaps Ohioans have poor memories.

Hey!  We Ohioans have amazing memories.... who are you again? 

Anywho, we have a little less than a month till Ohio's primary and I'm sure these poll numbers are very fluid.

[ottermax]

A lot of states shift from strong Clinton to Obama as the election nears. There are still a significant number of undecideds, and many Clinton voters may change their minds. However I heard there is early voting in Ohio, so I expect a Clinton win.

[opebo]

lol @ racist Ohio.

LOL @ idiot Obama supporters who believe that if you don't support him, you must be racist.

In all seriousness, Phil, you surely cannot be denying that Ohio is a racist state?  Or Pennsylvania for that matter?  I mean really, these are profoundly racist states, and the majority of the white people in these states are racists.  I don't see how you can live in these places and not notice what's going on around you.

I lived in Missouri and I was able to be an honest observer - the place is hideously racist, and most of the whites absolutely hate a black. 

In fairness, however, the whole country is so, but its worth noting that places like Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are worse than average.

[Reaganfan]

LOL I'm gonna really push for Hillary here!

[Mr.Phips]

Obama needs to pound away at Clinton's support for NAFTA here as well as her inability to win a general election. 

[Ogre Mage]

To some degree I think Obama is running into the same hurdle that most insurgent Democratic candidates have run into -- winning over the working class, which is the dominant voting bloc in Ohio.  It is worth nothing that both Gary Hart and Bill Bradley had the same trouble running against Walter Mondale and Al Gore, respectively. 

But Obama has a big advantage that Hart and Bradley did not -- he has the black working class (as well as a lot of the black bourgeois) totally behind him.  In winning over the white and Latino working class, however, Obama seems to be having the same trouble as Hart and Bradley before him.

There certainly may be a racial element to Obama's problems in Ohio.  But I think it is only one of several significant factors at work.  Michael Tomasky discusses the issue here:

Obama and the White Working Class

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who's defining "insurgent" candidates here? Can someone as much of a Daley-product as Obama is ever be a true "insurgent" candidate?

[The Hack Hater]

From what I've heard of Ohio, they are, for the most part, NOT racist. I don't believe there black population is as large as the states that Obama won recently in (Maryland, Virginia)

The polls are probably correct, there's such a wide lead that Obama will have to broaden his appeal if he doesn't want this to go to the convention.

[Ogre Mage]

I don't believe there black population is as large as the states that Obama won recently in (Maryland, Virginia)

Correct.  Ohio is about 11-12% black.  In contrast, Maryland is about 30% black and Virginia about 21%.  As the article notes, Obama also does well among both the white and black upper classes.  I read that between Maryland and Virginia, 40% of white Democrats had annual incomes of $100,000 a year or more.  That's a very high figure.

It is a very different situation in Ohio.  The vast majority of the population is white and working class.  And because it is a primary, these voters are more likely to participate than if it were a caucus.

With regards to Obama as an insurgent, I think he looks like one relative to Clinton, the establishment candidate.  Some might consider it odd that Gary Hart, a 2-term U.S. Senator, was considered an "insurgent" candidate in 1984, but that was how the narrative played out against Mondale.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He might look like an insurgent candidate, but he certainly isn't one. Not that that's a bad thing either.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I think both Ohio and Pennsylvania will go for Hillary, though certainly not by the margins shown in this poll.

Still, even though Minnesota was a caucus state, the margin by which Obama won should say something about Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  Chances are, he'll do better than what the polls say.

I say this because Obama won with large margins in the rural, white, working class areas of Minnesota.