Hawaii not strong Obama?

[Padfoot]

How is Hawaii not at least lean Obama on the prediction map.  Its essentially a home state for him plus it is a caucus which is also in his favor.  Why hasn't it moved out of the tossup category?  People are obviously still updating enough to have moved Maryland and Mississippi in recent days.  What's the deal with Hawaii?

[Alcon]

Asians, Pacific Islanders

[Eraserhead]

Asians, Pacific Islanders

Doesn't matter in this case, he'll landslide.

[ottermax]

Asians, Pacific Islanders

Doesn't matter in this case, he'll landslide.

I just read an article from the local newspaper, and they did make a good point in reasoning that many Democrats are the type that vote for Hillary. It seemed like there were more Hillary supporters, but then again there have been no polls and it would seem that Obama would win.

[Alcon]

I want a SurveyUSA poll with a caucus subsample.  Those have rocked it in the past.  Hell, a caucus-only poll.  SurveyUSA seems to be good with caucuses.

I think that Obama will do quite well too.  He generally wins Asians in caucuses, after all, on merit of him winning everyone.  Not always, but elsewhere.

But you can make an argument...

I think Eraserhead's is probably more convincing.

[Verily]

I want a SurveyUSA poll with a caucus subsample.  Those have rocked it in the past.  Hell, a caucus-only poll.  SurveyUSA seems to be good with caucuses.

No one ever polls Hawaii. Probably too much effort. It's a pity; I'd like to know whether to expect an Obama blowout or a Clinton victory, or something in between.

[Alcon]

I want a SurveyUSA poll with a caucus subsample.  Those have rocked it in the past.  Hell, a caucus-only poll.  SurveyUSA seems to be good with caucuses.

No one ever polls Hawaii. Probably too much effort. It's a pity; I'd like to know whether to expect an Obama blowout or a Clinton victory, or something in between.

I know.  Maybe they're all gunshy after the 2004 fiasco.

[HardRCafé]

I think 66% is the least Obama can get here.  78% is my prediction.

[Padfoot]

I think 66% is the least Obama can get here.  78% is my prediction.

See, thats what I'm thinking also.  With a semi-home state advantage as well as the caucus advantage I just don't understand why people aren't more confident in an Obama victory.  Come on guys, I want to see a green Hawaii!  Yes we can!

[Stranger in a strange land]

also Hawaii Asians are completely different from California Asians. Plus didn't he win asians in WA?

[Alcon]

also Hawaii Asians are completely different from California Asians. Plus didn't he win asians in WA?

No entrance polls, so I don't know.

When I get the returns for Beacon Hill in Seattle, I'll be able to tell you.

[Verily]

I want a SurveyUSA poll with a caucus subsample.  Those have rocked it in the past.  Hell, a caucus-only poll.  SurveyUSA seems to be good with caucuses.

No one ever polls Hawaii. Probably too much effort. It's a pity; I'd like to know whether to expect an Obama blowout or a Clinton victory, or something in between.

I know.  Maybe they're all gunshy after the 2004 fiasco.

Yeah, well, if 2004 proved anything, it was that polling Hawaii was a dreadful idea.

[Angel of Death]

I just don't see them standing in the way of a Hawaiian-born president.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not only will about half of caucus-goers be white, they're exactly the type of whites that Obama landslides.

[HardRCafé]

So far, so good.

[Tender Branson]

Obama could win Hawaii with 60%+ against McCain ...