USAT/Gallup, AP-Ipsos, and Gallup & Rasmussen tracking national polls

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the lastest round of national polls:

AP-Ipsos:

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iP6aoeuUCqIEo5DHDOCMLHyUOCpgD8UOB5VO0

Clinton 46%
Obama 41%

McCain 44%
Huckabee 30%
Paul 9%

USA Today / Gallup (this is separate from Gallup's daily tracking):

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-02-11-poll_N.htm

Obama 47%
Clinton 44%

McCain 53%
Huckabee 27%
Paul 8%

Rasmussen daily tracking:

link

Clinton 46%
Obama 41%

McCain 46%
Huckabee 34%
Paul 8%

Gallup daily tracking:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104281/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

Clinton 46%
Obama 44%

McCain 56%
Huckabee 25%
Paul 6%

Gallup graphs:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do national polls mean anything now? It's possible that more than half the respondents have already voted.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, but we also have nearly half the country that hasn't voted yet.  Most of them are in states that don't get polled every week, so this at least gives us a basline idea of where things stand.

Also, even if this is not terribly predictive of upcoming primaries, it does also give us an idea of the national preferences of members of each party.  How do Republicans rate McCain as opposed to Huckabee?  That's an interesting question, even if it's already a foregone conclusion that McCain gets the nom.

[Verily]

Do national polls mean anything now? It's possible that more than half the respondents have already voted.

They're interesting because they tell which way things are moving.

[Person Man]

Do national polls mean anything now? It's possible that more than half the respondents have already voted.

[Lief 🗽]

I think the mood of the party is still important when you're selecting a presidential candidate.

Also, if that big Huckabee bump after the weekend is real, then McCain may be in trouble.

[Eraserhead]

I think the mood of the party is still important when you're selecting a presidential candidate.

Also, if that big Huckabee bump after the weekend is real, then McCain may be in trouble.

Well he may get embarrassed some more but it isn't actually possible for Huckleberry to win the nom.

[Verily]

Since someone's bumped this thread, Rasmussen's tracking numbers today have the race back to essentially a tie, Clinton 44, Obama 42. Gallup's isn't out yet; it'll be a few hours.

[Trilobyte]

Gallup now has the race basically even: Clinton ahead 45-44. I think it's remarkable that Clinton has sustained her lead for so long, even after a few Obama surges.

[Lief 🗽]

If the Rasmussen poll is to be believed, then Obama got a huge bump out of sweeping the weekend states.

[Verily]

Obama now leads Rasmussen's tracking poll for the first time ever, 46-41. The swing form yesterday is Obama +4, Clinton -3, especially impressive in light of it being a five-day tracking poll. (He had led in a single Rasmussen poll in late winter of last year, 22-21, but that was before the tracker.)

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

In GE match-ups, Obama leads McCain 46-40. McCain leads Clinton 46-42.

Rasmussen will also begin releasing state-by-state general election polls of New Hampshire, Colorado and Missouri this afternoon.

[Verily]

Obama takes the lead in Gallup as well, 45-44.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow. That's some crazy momentum out of just the weekend. Can't wait until post-Potomac Primary numbers.

[Person Man]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

It gets WAAYY funnier.

[True Democrat]

Rasmussen = InTrade of Polling

[Eraserhead]

Rasmussen = InTrade of Polling

No.

[True Democrat]

Rasmussen = InTrade of Polling

No.

Like Intrade, they seem to jump on momentum bandwagons and give momentous candidates more support than they actually have.

Just look at the summer polling with Fred Thompson.

[Mr. Morden]

Just look at the summer polling with Fred Thompson.

That's less a function of overestimating momentum/bandwagons, and more a function of systematically overestimating the GOP candidates that disproportionately draw their support from the more socially conservative wing of the party (at least relative to other polls).  Just look at the entire history of their national polling for the GOP nomination.  Giuliani and McCain always performed worse in Rasmussen polls than they did in other polls.

[Kalimantan]