John Shadegg to will not seek reelection

[Spaghetti Cat]

Any ideas on who could replace him?

[Keystone Phil]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Safe Republican seat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Surprising.

[Brittain33]

For the record, it's not the same part of Maricopa County that McCain represented in the 1980s. I suppose Shadegg was waiting to see if McCain secured the nomination before leaving the seat open, because as an open seat in a bad year with anyone else heading the ticket it wouldn't be safe for Republicans.

[Jake]

Surprising.

How so? Shadegg saw what idiots were controlling the GOP caucus last year. Why stay?

[MarkWarner08]

Safe Republican seat.

Not necessarily. The Democrats have a well-funded challenger in place. Bob Lord (how will the fundies oppose a man with that surname? ) has already amasses a $300k+ warchest and has received strategic advice from Chris Van Hollen and Rahm Emmanuel. The Democrats considered this a sleeper race before Shadegg retired -- now it's a solidly competitive seat.

[memphis]

I think it's very unlikely that the Dems can take this seat.

[MarkWarner08]

I think it's very unlikely that the Dems can take this seat.

Current unknowns: Republican candidate recruitment, the Democratic standardbearer, DCCC spending here, the issue environment, local and national factors (economic downtrun, foreign policy crisis etc.).

As of now, the Democrats have a solid candidate and the Republicans have none. If the Republicans recruit well here, I'll move this seat to Likely Republican. McCain will probably distort the PVI (which includes incumbent Bush's showing) here, IMHO.

[TheresNoMoney]

Out of the 29 Republican house retirements, this seat is only the 15th most Republican. It is an R +5.9 district.

Possibly win for the Dems, but quite unlikely.

[MarkWarner08]

Out of the 29 Republican house retirements, this seat is only the 15th most Republican. It is an R +5.9 district.

Possibly win for the Dems, but quite unlikely.

Good point.

[Torie]

Life must suck for Pubbies in the House now, who remembered better times. I think there is a perception, that it will be a loooong time before Pubbies retake the House, a very long time.

[MarkWarner08]

Life must suck for Pubbies in the House now, who remembered better times. I think there is a perception, that it will be a loooong time before Pubbies retake the House, a very long time.

If McCain wins in 2010, Republicans could suffer further losses in the U.S and in state legislatures. That could keep the GOP in the House minority until 2022...

[Verily]

Out of the 29 Republican house retirements, this seat is only the 15th most Republican. It is an R +5.9 district.

Possibly win for the Dems, but quite unlikely.

It's also in Arizona. The Democrats will have difficulty taking Renzi's seat against McCain as the top of the ticket, let alone this one.

[Torie]

Life must suck for Pubbies in the House now, who remembered better times. I think there is a perception, that it will be a loooong time before Pubbies retake the House, a very long time.

If McCain wins in 2010, Republicans could suffer further losses in the U.S and in state legislatures. That could keep the GOP in the House minority until 2022...

Well, usually it is the six year itch that costs, not the second year itch. I think it is more due to more fundamental factors, conservative divisions and demoralization and lack of a galvanizing issue (well maybe illegals might do something, if a Bill is passed that they hate), ongoing demographic changes, the continuing GOP erosion with Northern country clubbers,  and maybe the more broad gaged message coming out these days from a new generation of Evangelical leads like Rick Warren. But who knows?

[MarkWarner08]

Life must suck for Pubbies in the House now, who remembered better times. I think there is a perception, that it will be a loooong time before Pubbies retake the House, a very long time.

If McCain wins in 2010, Republicans could suffer further losses in the U.S and in state legislatures. That could keep the GOP in the House minority until 2022...

Well, usually it is the six year itch that costs, not the second year itch. I think it is more due to more fundamental factors, conservative divisions and demoralization and lack of a galvanizing issue (well maybe illegals might do something, if a Bill is passed that they hate), ongoing demographic changes, the continuing GOP erosion with Northern country clubbers,  and maybe the more broad gaged message coming out these days from a new generation of Evangelical leads like Rick Warren. But who knows?

I wasn't referring to redistricting, not the second year itch. All those crucial governorship which were up for grabs last cycle (think MI, PA, TX, CA, OH, and NY) will be fought for in 2010. Democratic control of the Michigan State Senate and New York State Senate could yield the party a five seat gain. That's only from two states. The possibilities for partisan gerrymandering are limitless in several other states, too.

Otherwise, I agree with the rest of your analysis.

[Adlai Stevenson]

CQ Politics notes Shadegg is interested in running for U.S. Senate should Sen. John McCain become president.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/11/shadegg_to_retire_in_az3.html

Bob Lord has been fundraising heavily and well in recent months.  Bush increased his 54%-43% win in 2000 in AZ-3 to 58%-41% in 2004. 

[Keystone Phil]

CQ Politics notes Shadegg is interested in running for U.S. Senate should Sen. John McCain become president.

Excellent!

[Adlai Stevenson]

Although attorney Bob Lord (D) had raised over $600,000 in 2007 for the race, the district still skews heavily Republican. Shadegg Chief of Staff Sean Noble (R) is a likely candidate for the seat. Race rating: GOP Favored.

http://www.politics1.com/

[Adlai Stevenson]

Congressman John Shadegg (R) just last week announced he would not seek re-election this year. Now come the reports he may already be changing his mind. After several prominent GOP leaders urged Shadegg to run again, Shadegg vowed he would think about it and announce a decision by Thursday. The Club for Growth and the American Conservative Union were among those calling on the fiscal conservative Shadegg to stay in Congress. All of the recently announced GOP candidates -- except for former State Representative Steve May -- vowed they will exit the race if Shadegg runs again.

http://www.politics1.com/

[Rococo4]

clearly banking on mccain resigning his seat (which he should do) so he can run for that