What's the most embarrassing election prediction you've made?

[Hatman 🍁]

I predicted the NDP would Charlottetown in 2004 :S

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I had Edwards and Romney winning Iowa, and Clinton winning Washington and Louisiana.

The first two are excusable, the last one is arguable, the third one is simply not valid in any way.

Because, of course, I require your approval for everything I do

You'd say a lot less blatantly incorrect and illogical things (such as that a Mormon-baiter will do better than a non-Mormon-baiter in Utah or that Hillary will greatly improve in states where Bill was rather unpopular) if you did. Not that I'm saying that SHOULD be the case but, well just don't make any big bets on your predictions.

[Јas]

There are just too many to pick one...though of recent efforts - Wicklow in the General Election last year was particularly bad.

[Sam Spade]

I've made plenty - but one doesn't stick out to me at this moment.

Some of the predictions listed here were tough to make.  However...

Lamont beating Lieberman???  Was never going to happen.  Rick Santorum???  hahaha

[Jake]

ME-02 for Bush in 2004. Pretty dumb prediction and I fully believed it would happen.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Melissa Hart would trounce Jason Altmire.

[Cubby]

Lamont beating Lieberman???  Was never going to happen.....

He lost by 10 points. Thats not a close election but it certainly wasn't a landslide.

This is the perfect thread for WalterMitty!

i think clinton can do reasonably well the woment (especially) in nova.

i dont know why you all automatically think that obama has nova wrapped up.

ive yet to hear anyone articulate a sound theory on why she will get blown out of the water in fairfax county.  i think she could possibly keep in reasonably close.  maybe not.  but im not automatically ceding it to obama by 30 points.

Obama ended up winning Fairfax 59/41 (18 points) Loudoun 62/38 (24 points) and Prince William 64/36 (28 points).


My worst election prediction was in 2004, I said Kerry would win Florida, while Bush would win Minnesota and Wisconsin. The polls on this site had Bush consistently in the lead in WI. For MN, I thought the growing ex-urban vote would push Bush over the top. I don't remember my reason for FL, but the 4 Hurricanes probably changed minds in the final days.

[JSojourner]

Hmmm.  I predicted...

A Kerry win in 2004.

Joe Kernan to beat Mitch Daniels for governor in 2004.

Jill Long-Thompson to defeat Mark Souder in 1994.

Lots and lots more.  Candidates should PAY me not to endorse them or predict for them!

[Gustaf]

I greatly over-estimated Romney for Super Tuesday and underestimated Huckabee. While most of my faulty Romney predictions were hedging things (trying not to get carried away and disappointed) I truly believed Huckabee was gonna win nothing but Arkansas.

I greatly over-estimated Knowles. Every time. And the Dem hacks fooled me into a Hatch prediction in 2006 Minnesota. And I predicted Maine for Bush in 2004...that would be the zinger if I didn't have an excuse for it.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There are just too many to pick one...though of recent efforts - Wicklow in the General Election last year was particularly bad.

To be the fair, your prediction was the same as the Irish Times. And Wicklow is a very difficult place to predict (because it is so damn strange...)

I don't do predictions so.... I'm hoping though my predictions of McCain winning and the Lisbon Treaty being easily passed will prove to be wrong. (The second of those is far more likely to happen.)

[Eraserhead]

NH this year maybe? But most of us got that one wrong.

[Verily]

I greatly over-estimated Knowles. Every time. And the Dem hacks fooled me into a Hatch prediction in 2006 Minnesota. And I predicted Maine for Bush in 2004...that would be the zinger if I didn't have an excuse for it.

At the end, all of the polls had Hatch leading. It wasn't hackery to predict him to win, at all. The last poll to have Pawlenty ahead was conducted in late September.