What's the most embarrassing election prediction you've made?

[perdedor]

I actually bet money on Ned Lamont. Despite being leaps and bounds better than Loserman, he was a total joke of a candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is the perfect thread for WalterMitty!

For me, probably that Kerry would do better than Gore in West Virginia.

[Beet]

2004- I predicted Kerry to do a lot worse than he did.

[Keystone Phil]

Unlike most, I own up to my terrible predictions and I'll take whatever is thrown my way.

My two well known, horrible predictions get the most attention since I don't have that many wrong predictions.

So to remind everyone:

- Melissa Brown in PA 13 (2004)

- Rick Santorum (2006)

[perdedor]

Unlike most, I own up to my terrible predictions and I'll take whatever is thrown my way.

My two well known, horrible predictions get the most attention since I don't have that many wrong predictions.

So to remind everyone:

- Melissa Brown in PA 13 (2004)

- Rick Santorum (2006)

I hate to pile on, but you actually believed that Santorum was going to win?

[Keystone Phil]

Unlike most, I own up to my terrible predictions and I'll take whatever is thrown my way.

My two well known, horrible predictions get the most attention since I don't have that many wrong predictions.

So to remind everyone:

- Melissa Brown in PA 13 (2004)

- Rick Santorum (2006)

I hate to pile on, but you actually believed that Santorum was going to win?

Let me state this publicly.

I don't want people to believe that I am backing away from my prediction. I stand by it. I believe it was possible.

When we approached the final weeks, I knew that it was close to impossible that Santorum would win but I held out hope and belief in his past comebacks. Did I know that a loss was likely? Yes. Was I shocked that he actually lost? No. The only thing that shocked me that it was finally happening.

I have mentioned this off the forum and some believe it was simply my way of backing away from a terrible prediction. I am by no means doing that. I stand by what I predicted, basing my prediction off of past comebacks that no one believed was possible. I got it wrong. I am not surprised that it was wrong though.

[MarkWarner08]

Lois Murphy/Diane Farrell in 2006
Over $8 million combined spent and barely any improvement on their 2004 showings...

[Gabu]

Fortunately for myself, I tend to be very cautious when attempting to predict something that is very much up in the air.

I did predict Kerry would win in 2004, though.

[Lief 🗽]

I thought Kerry would win 300+ electoral votes in 2004.

[Meeker]

Michael Badnarik could possibly win TX-10 in 2006

The man had $400,000! How the  do you get 4% of the vote with that kind of money?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Michael Badnarik could possibly win TX-10 in 2006

The man had $400,000! How the  do you get 4% of the vote with that kind of money?

Did you see the ad he made that ran in Wisconsin?

BEST. ACTING. EVER.

[perdedor]

Michael Badnarik could possibly win TX-10 in 2006

The man had $400,000! How the  do you get 4% of the vote with that kind of money?

See Ron Paul.

[Meeker]

But even Ron Paul would pull better than 4% in TX-10... I just don't get it.

[perdedor]

But even Ron Paul would pull better than 4% in TX-10... I just don't get it.

Perhaps, but only because of name recognition. Libertarians just don't have a high level of electability, probably because of the economic/spending positions. I mean, Ron Paul took in 12,000,000$ in one day and hasn't registered sh!t in this election cycle.  The reality is that, if you gave any moderate independent who wasn't mentally unstable 400,000$ in TX-10 to run for congress, he/she could at least come out with 15%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I greatly overestimated the size of the LibDem vote in a whole string of constituencies (mostly Tory/Liberal marginals in the south) in 2005.

[Ebowed]

Obama would win New Hampshire primary by double digits. (unlike some of my other predictions, I entirely believed this)

[Хahar 🤔]

Kerry would win, 2004.

I haven't been around long enough to make many bad predictions.

[The Mikado]

Tied between thinking Dr. Howard Dean would win the 2004 Democratic Nomination, thinking Tony Knowles would win the 2004 Alaska Senate race, and thinking that Kerry would win.  (I called 48 states right!  Damn FL and OH!)

I got 2006 right, calling the six Senate turnovers, and, to some of my Democratic friends' consternation, calling Harold Ford Jr. to lose.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I had Edwards and Romney winning Iowa, and Clinton winning Washington and Louisiana.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I had Edwards and Romney winning Iowa, and Clinton winning Washington and Louisiana.

The first two are excusable, the last one is arguable, the third one is simply not valid in any way.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Walter's absence is kind of interesting...

[Keystone Phil]

Walter's absence is kind of interesting...

Maybe it's your disturbing, stalker, obsession hounding of the guy? Just a guess.

[NDN]

I predicted that Romney would win California.

[phk]

Kerry's victory in 2004.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I had Edwards and Romney winning Iowa, and Clinton winning Washington and Louisiana.

The first two are excusable, the last one is arguable, the third one is simply not valid in any way.

Because, of course, I require your approval for everything I do