A crucial number: The percentage of white Protestants

[Shira]

Two numbers which could be very helpful when you try to predict a 2004 outcome in a given state, is the state percentage of white Protestants in 2004 vs. 2000

Assume for example, that in one state Gore in 2000 got 3% above his national number and the percentage of white Protestants in that state was 64%. Now, assume that the percentage of white Protestants dropped by 2% to 62%. In this case it is guaranteed that Kerry in this state, will get a number which is higher than its national one by more than 3%.

Except for white Protestants, Bush will get less than Kerry among ALL other ethnical and religious groups and subgroups. In some (Blacks for example), Kerry   will have a huge advantage and in others (Catholic for example) he will have a modest one.

Does someone know where can we get the 2000 and 2004 percentage of white Protestants population in each state?

[MODU]

Just go to the US census website.  Has all that info available.

[AuH2O]

In a lot of places, Kerry is going to get butchered with Catholic voters. In fact, religious Catholics are equally conservative to religious Protestants.

The national Catholic numbers are dragged left by non-observant 'Catholics,' particularly in the Northeast, and hispanic voters (all of whom are Catholic, many of whom are Democrats).

Bottom line is that Kerry gets killed among white voters and particularly religious white voters. And there's no energy in the minority communities for Kerry, not to the kind of energy he is going to need.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

 OFF CTGUY

[AuH2O]

Am I wrong?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Am I wrong?

I was talking to CTGuy/Shira.
And for the record, "White Protestant" is not a real demographic grouping.

[AuH2O]

Oh, I wasn't here when he had the old name.

'White protestant' isn't exactly an ethnic group, but white voters are identifiably different from, say, black voters and even different from one another regionally (in voting patterns).

Not that it matters. WHOEVER GETS MORE VOTES WINS! Within the states anyway, and probably in the electoral college too.

[TeePee4Prez]

In a lot of places, Kerry is going to get butchered with Catholic voters. In fact, religious Catholics are equally conservative to religious Protestants.

The national Catholic numbers are dragged left by non-observant 'Catholics,' particularly in the Northeast, and hispanic voters (all of whom are Catholic, many of whom are Democrats).

Bottom line is that Kerry gets killed among white voters and particularly religious white voters. And there's no energy in the minority communities for Kerry, not to the kind of energy he is going to need.

The only reason "observant" Catholics vote Republican is because the bloodsucking Archbishops (a la Anthony Bevilacqua) publish these voter guides that basically paint the Democrat as garbage and ignores other issues.  The Pope himself is more of a Democrat on social justice, but these bishops and Cardinals refuse to listen and only want to extenuate the issues the Republicna party want spelled out.  I wonder if there are times corporations are in bed with the Catholic Church.  It's funny I'm posting this because way back in 1987-1988 when I was 7 and 8 I wanted to become a Catholic priest.  I'm 24 and now I can no longer see myself being a Catholci ebcause of these bureaucratic f-ups.

[Demoteen04]

Handzus go ON AIM

[AuH2O]

LoL

No, conservative Catholics do not vote GOP because of "voter guides"

lol

[minionofmidas]

Just go to the US census website.  Has all that info available.

Since when do they keep data on religion?

[MODU]

In a lot of places, Kerry is going to get butchered with Catholic voters. In fact, religious Catholics are equally conservative to religious Protestants.

The national Catholic numbers are dragged left by non-observant 'Catholics,' particularly in the Northeast, and hispanic voters (all of whom are Catholic, many of whom are Democrats).

Bottom line is that Kerry gets killed among white voters and particularly religious white voters. And there's no energy in the minority communities for Kerry, not to the kind of energy he is going to need.

The only reason "observant" Catholics vote Republican is because the bloodsucking Archbishops (a la Anthony Bevilacqua) publish these voter guides that basically paint the Democrat as garbage and ignores other issues.  The Pope himself is more of a Democrat on social justice, but these bishops and Cardinals refuse to listen and only want to extenuate the issues the Republicna party want spelled out.  I wonder if there are times corporations are in bed with the Catholic Church.  It's funny I'm posting this because way back in 1987-1988 when I was 7 and 8 I wanted to become a Catholic priest.  I'm 24 and now I can no longer see myself being a Catholci ebcause of these bureaucratic f-ups.

Actually, there are many studies on the voting habits of religious people in relation to how often they attend church.  Those that attend frequently tend to vote Republican, while those that are "lazy" tend to report Democratic.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

most white mainline Protestants in Minnesota are Democrats.

[minionofmidas]

most white mainline Protestants in Minnesota are Democrats.

Stress on "mainline" and "in Minnesota", a state with very few Non-Whites.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

well most Protestants in Minnesota are mainline as well. This is mainly because most are Lutherans who are ethnically Scandinavian, a pretty Democratic voting bloc.'

For the record, interestingly, the two "whitest" states in the country are Maine and Vermont. And both are strongly Democratic.

[AuH2O]

Which is why Minnesota is trending GOP... well, one reason at least. The Midwest is different from the NE.

[nclib]

Two numbers which could be very helpful when you try to predict a 2004 outcome in a given state, is the state percentage of white Protestants in 2004 vs. 2000

Assume for example, that in one state Gore in 2000 got 3% above his national number and the percentage of white Protestants in that state was 64%. Now, assume that the percentage of white Protestants dropped by 2% to 62%. In this case it is guaranteed that Kerry in this state, will get a number which is higher than its national one by more than 3%.

Except for white Protestants, Bush will get less than Kerry among ALL other ethnical and religious groups and subgroups. In some (Blacks for example), Kerry   will have a huge advantage and in others (Catholic for example) he will have a modest one.

Does someone know where can we get the 2000 and 2004 percentage of white Protestants population in each state?

I don't think the census has data by religion, or least not race-religion combinations.

Does anyone know how many states Gore won the white Protestant vote?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"White Protestant" isn't a demographic group

[© tweed]

If Kerry get 10% of white protestants I'll be more than happy.