VA-Mason-Dixon: Obama and McCain by wide margins
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  VA-Mason-Dixon: Obama and McCain by wide margins
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Author Topic: VA-Mason-Dixon: Obama and McCain by wide margins  (Read 1116 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 10, 2008, 03:49:31 AM »

Of 400 likely voters in the Democratic primary who were surveyed, 53 percent said they would vote for Obama and 37 percent favored Clinton.

On the Republican side, John McCain appeared to be solidifying his role as nominee-to-be with a 28-percentage point lead over Mike Huckabee.

The statewide poll, commissioned by The Roanoke Times and other Virginia newspapers, was conducted Thursday and Friday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

It was Obama's 82 percent support among black voters that bolstered his statewide standing, the poll found. And while Clinton took 49 percent of the white vote in the poll, Obama was not far behind with 41 percent.

Of the female voters surveyed, 49 percent favored Obama, compared with 41 percent for Clinton.

The poll showed McCain running well ahead in every part of the state except Southwest Virginia, where the Arizona senator was dead even with Huckabee. And while Huckabee had an 11-percentage point lead among "very conservative" Republicans, self-described evangelical Christians were slightly more likely to back McCain.

Of the 400 likely Republican voters surveyed, 40 percent said "strength and leadership to keep America safe" was the quality they most wanted in a candidate, while another 37 percent wanted someone who shared their personal values.

Obama led Clinton more than 3-to-1 among Democrats seeking a change, while she held an even wider lead over the Illinois senator among voters looking for experience.

The poll, which was conducted by random telephone interviews Thursday and Friday, has a 5 percent margin of error. In other words, there is a 95 percent probability that the results would be the same if all voters were surveyed.

http://www.roanoke.com/politics/wb/150265
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Ben.
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« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2008, 03:56:33 AM »

Seems to confirm what we've seen from other polls... must be good news for Obama, although it throws the expectations game against him somewhat.
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Frodo
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« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2008, 02:44:20 PM »

Why is there a breakdown in this poll of liberals, moderates, and conservatives in the Democratic race, but no similar breakdown between McCain and Huckabee? 
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J. J.
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« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2008, 02:48:46 PM »

Why is there a breakdown in this poll of liberals, moderates, and conservatives in the Democratic race, but no similar breakdown between McCain and Huckabee? 

I think it listed Huckabee's 11 point lead among the "very conservative" voters.
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Frodo
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« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2008, 03:24:09 PM »

Why is there a breakdown in this poll of liberals, moderates, and conservatives in the Democratic race, but no similar breakdown between McCain and Huckabee? 

I think it listed Huckabee's 11 point lead among the "very conservative" voters.

That doesn't really tell me much beyond what I already knew. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2008, 03:27:27 PM »

Why is there a breakdown in this poll of liberals, moderates, and conservatives in the Democratic race, but no similar breakdown between McCain and Huckabee? 

I think it listed Huckabee's 11 point lead among the "very conservative" voters.

That doesn't really tell me much beyond what I already knew. 

I never said it would.  Smiley

Seriously. McCain has problems with the extreme right, but not with the conservatives in general.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2008, 02:31:18 AM »

Going by Mason Dixon's record with polling Obama so far, I guess this means he will win by over 30%. Wink
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big bad fab
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« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2008, 03:16:42 AM »

A small panel, but it would be interesting to see McCain strong enough among evangelicals.
And look at Louisiana: more social conservatives than arch-conservatives and McCain did very well there.
Business and fiscal conservatives are gahtering behind McCain.

So, isn't Huckabee vote evolving from social and Christian conservatives towards arch-conservatives and ideologues ?
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