Feb. 9th and 10th election predictions

[Flying Dog]

So, who is bold enough to make a prediction concerning Maine, Nebraska, Louisiana and Washington?

My prediction:

Maine:

Obama: 57%
Clinton: 41%

Nebraska:
Obama: 67%
Clinton: 32%

Louisiana:
Obama: 55%
Clinton: 44%

Washington:

Obama: 62%
Clinton: 38%

[Eraserhead]

This is basically a guessing game but I'll try it.

Louisiania:

Obama 56%
Clinton 42%

Nebraska:

Obama 62%
Clinton 36%

Washington:

Obama 60%
Clinton 38%

Maine:

Clinton 53%
Obama 45%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is basically a guessing game but I'll try it.

Louisiania:

Obama 56%
Clinton 42%

Nebraska:

Obama 62%
Clinton 36%

Washington:

Obama 60%
Clinton 38%

Maine:

Clinton 53%
Obama 45%

I agree with these... except I think WA might be a little closer than expected.

[Saxwsylvania]

Louisiana:

Obama 55.3056%
Clinton 44.6944%
----------------------------
Nebraska:

Obama 69.2122%
Clinton 30.7878%
-----------------------------
Washington:

Obama 70.0846%
Clinton 29.9154%
---------------------------
Maine:

Obama 60.0744%
Clinton 39.9256%

[Sam Spade]

I'll put up predictions tomorrow:  Louisiana is tougher than it looks b/c I don't know how many blacks are left.

Hmmm...  I wonder how Ms. Babineaux Blanco and her ilk will vote???

[TomC]

Obama's going to do well, but the Obama campaign and some supporters here are about to seriously lose the expectations game.

[Flying Dog]

I'll put up predictions tomorrow:  Louisiana is tougher than it looks b/c I don't know how many blacks are left.

Hmmm...  I wonder how Ms. Babineaux Blanco and her ilk will vote???

Her lasting hatred of Ray Nagin has made her despise all blacks from now on.

[Lief 🗽]

Anyone know what times the caucuses are?

[Flying Dog]

I'll even go as far to make baseless predictions on texas and ohio

Texas:

Hillary: 54%
Obama: 45%

Ohio:

Hillary: 51%
Obama: 48%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why do people talk about Louisiana as if all the blacks in the state lived in New Orleans? They live in the other cities as well too, (Baton Rouge is majority black), and like any southern state there's many rural blacks too.

[Flying Dog]

Why do people talk about Louisiana as if all the blacks in the state lived in New Orleans? They live in the other cities as well too, (Baton Rouge is majority black), and like any southern state there's many rural blacks too.

Yeah, along with Lafayette and some rural area's. Blacks are actually pretty spread out across the state.

[exopolitician]

Obama's going to do well, but the Obama campaign and some supporters here are about to seriously lose the expectations game.

Hm?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama's going to do well, but the Obama campaign and some supporters here are about to seriously lose the expectations game.

Hm?

I will not doubt be corrected if I'm wrong... but
I believe that the concern should be that everyone is now expecting Obama do extremely well in these contests, not just win - but dominate. If he doesn't do as well as expected.... yadda yadda.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama's going to do well, but the Obama campaign and some supporters here are about to seriously lose the expectations game.

If Obama wins all four, and it's a big if , then he's doing fine. What are people expecting? Obama to knock Clinton out? It isn't going to happen

Super Tuesday didn't particularly put a downer on me. I thought Obama did very well . CA would have been awesome but I never thought he was in serious contention in MA or NJ

Has there been no polling for LA whatsoever?

Dave

[Josh/Devilman88]

What time do the polls close tomorrow?

[Flying Dog]

LA-9pm EST.

WA-Could get results as early as 5 or as late as 8. Depends on how long the caucuses last.

NE-8PM EST, I think.

[Sam Spade]

Why do people talk about Louisiana as if all the blacks in the state lived in New Orleans? They live in the other cities as well too, (Baton Rouge is majority black), and like any southern state there's many rural blacks too.

A 2%-3% loss in the black population would make a difference concerning my prediction.  Also, the New Orleans machine was very good at turning out dead voters, historically, something which has unfortunately died away after Katrina.

[Torie]

I'll put up predictions tomorrow:  Louisiana is tougher than it looks b/c I don't know how many blacks are left.

Hmmm...  I wonder how Ms. Babineaux Blanco and her ilk will vote???

Enough as to the first query, easily. Blacks live in large numbers outside of NO in Louisiana, and NO is still majority black to boot, and some whites left too.

[The Mikado]

Louisiana
O 56
C 43

Nebraska
O 60
C 40

Washington

O 55
C 43

Maine

O 50
C 48

[Verily]

Why do people talk about Louisiana as if all the blacks in the state lived in New Orleans? They live in the other cities as well too, (Baton Rouge is majority black), and like any southern state there's many rural blacks too.

A 2%-3% loss in the black population would make a difference concerning my prediction.  Also, the New Orleans machine was very good at turning out dead voters, historically, something which has unfortunately died away after Katrina.

Personally, I'd expect the lack of dead voters to benefit Obama. Bill Jefferson is exactly the sort of black politician who'd endorse Clinton.

[elcorazon]

Louisiana -
Obama 53%
Clinton 45%

Washington -
Obama 54%
Clinton 46%

Nebraska -
Obama 58%
Clinton 41%

Maine -
Obama 60%
Clinton 40%

[Sam Spade]

I'll put up predictions tomorrow:  Louisiana is tougher than it looks b/c I don't know how many blacks are left.

Hmmm...  I wonder how Ms. Babineaux Blanco and her ilk will vote???

Enough as to the first query, easily. Blacks live in large numbers outside of NO in Louisiana, and NO is still majority black to boot, and some whites left too.

Hmmm...  From the looks of it, I don't think I worded my statement properly.  The implication was not that "no blacks are left", but rather was what the percentage movement downward because of Katrina.

I think I kind of already know what the whites will do there.  I have too many relatives from the northern/western Louisiana part of this world for my own good.

[Aizen]

LA:

Obama: 55%
Clinton: 43%

NE:

Obama: 62%
Clinton: 37%

WA:

Obama: 58%
Obama: 41%

Maine:

Obama: 55%
Clinton: 43%

[Torie]

I guess my point is that the bleaching of Louisiana stuff is overdone, and largely hype. It might be around 35,000 votes or so overall, if it were a general election. But I guess if Pubbies can vote in this primary, maybe all bets are off, come to think of it. On the other hand, Obama is a mere mulatto, and Louisiana is sensitive to things like that. Nowhere else in American are terms like quadroon and octaroon used either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Louisiana is a closed primary.