VA PrimD: Survey USA: Obama up 22 in Virginia

[Wiz in Wis]

New Poll: Virginia President by Survey USA on 2008-02-06

Summary:

Obama:	59%
Clinton:	37%
Other:	1%
Undecided:	3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Ben.]

Impressive to be sure and very encouraging, but I’d wait till we see some more polls out of VA before I deem it having anything better than a slight lean to Obama… there’s solid ground for Clinton out there if she targets it effectively.   

[John Dibble]

I will not be overly optimistic, I will not be overly optimistic, I will not be overly optimitist, I will... OBAMA 2008 OMFG R0XX0R!!!11ONEoneOnETWO

[TheresNoMoney]

Virginia's going to be a very important swing state in the 2008 general election.  It will be winnable if Obama is the Dem nominee.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I will not be overly optimistic, I will not be overly optimistic, I will not be overly optimitist, I will... OBAMA 2008 OMFG R0XX0R!!!11ONEoneOnETWO

[Tender Branson]

Right now, I project both Obama and Clinton will have about 1.500 delegates after the March 4 primaries. According to RCP, Clinton currently has 1.077 delegates (incl. 211 SD) and Obama has 1.005 (incl. 128 SD) That leaves 877 pledged delegates for Clinton and 866 for Obama.

Lets assume that Obama wins 60% of the pledged delegates in February, edging Clinton 270-180. Clinton then wins 55% of the March 4 delegates - Clinton 200, Obama 170. That´s 440 pledged delegates for Obama until March, and 380 for Clinton.

New tally among pledged: about 1.260 for Clinton and 1.310 for Obama.

Clinton will have about 300 superdelegates by then, Obama 200.

Total delegate estimate until March 5:

Clinton: 1.560
Obama: 1.510

[Aizen]

Won't have to worry about this state