WA GOP: SUSA

[Meeker]

Taken before Romney dropped out of course:

Primary (Feb. 19th)
McCain: 32%
Romney: 31%
Huckabee: 24%
Paul: 6%

Caucus (Saturday)
Romney: 30%
Huckabee: 28% (!)
McCain: 28%
Paul: 6%


I'd mentioned before that I thought Huckabee was going to do a lot better here than people had thought and this seems to confirm that, however it's a very small sample size and Romney dropping out is going to shift things quite a bit of course. Last poll Paul had 20% amongst caucus goers and now he's down to 6%, so unless 3/4 of Paul's supporters jumped ship in the last few days take this with a grain of salt.

Also, people saying they plan on attending the caucus is up from 25% or so to 32% (31% GOP, 37% Democrats)

[bgwah]

Pat Buchanan won Washington in 1988. In fact, it was his best state!

Of course Huckabee is going to do well here. With Romney out, though, I have no clue what will happen. McCain or Huckabee winning wouldn't surprise me.

And I'm fairly certain that Paul is going to get a heck of a lot more than 6% in our caucus.

I eagerly await caucusing for Obama this Saturday! Fewer things will satisfy me more than seeing Obama supporters greatly outnumbering the Clintonistas in person. Some parts of this country may be basically retarded and support Clinton, but I will feel a lot better knowing I do not live in such an awful place. (What? I had to try being a full blown Obama hack. It's actually kind of fun!)


(Oh, and fewer things would scare me more than some random guy coming up to me and saying he was Alcon. That must have been a terrifying experience!! )

[Gabu]

Huckabee: 28% (!)

what

If Huckabee won Washington, I'd just give up.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Huckabee: 28% (!)

what

If Huckabee won Washington, I'd just give up.

It's a caucus, and Washington has plenty of fundies especially in the east (see Cathy McMorris). I think in 1998 Patty Murray beat a hardcore fundie type, and the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 1996 was also a big fundie. They were both women too, so the Washington GOP seems to like female fundies...of course they never get elected so this is hardly a good thing for them. Actually this makes sense considering female fundies make up Huckabee's base (something like 60% of his supporters are women.)

[Meeker]

The 1996 Washington GOP nominee for Governor favored castration for sex offenders.

No, not chemical castration.

Castration.

And then of course, as bgwah said, Pat Robertson won here in 1988 which is the only reason we have this messed up primary/caucus fusion-conflict thing. The Washington GOP has a long an illustrious history of nominating ultra-conservatives nutcases and they may just yet give us a welcome little treat of a Huck win.

[Gustaf]

I honestly doubt Huckabee is going to do very well. He didn't break 40% even in Alabama.

[Gabu]

I honestly doubt Huckabee is going to do very well. He didn't break 40% even in Alabama.

Actually, he just barely did.  He got 40.65% there.

[Gustaf]

I honestly doubt Huckabee is going to do very well. He didn't break 40% even in Alabama.

Actually, he just barely did.  He got 40.65% there.

Ouch for me...he was below 40% when I went to bed on Tuesday.

Anyway, the point is that Huckabee has taken control of a small segment of the electorate - the hard-line evangelicals. All exit polls consistently have him doing great in the same sub-samples. Daily church-goers, those who want abortion completely out-lawed and so on. This group is large enough to win him narrow victories in 3-way-races in places like Alabama or Georgia but it has failed miserably at delivering any other states. When you look at how poorly Huckabee has done everywhere outside of Iowa and the South I really doubt he will win much against McCain one-on-one.

[M]

I honestly doubt Huckabee is going to do very well. He didn't break 40% even in Alabama.

Actually, he just barely did.  He got 40.65% there.

Ouch for me...he was below 40% when I went to bed on Tuesday.

Anyway, the point is that Huckabee has taken control of a small segment of the electorate - the hard-line evangelicals. All exit polls consistently have him doing great in the same sub-samples. Daily church-goers, those who want abortion completely out-lawed and so on. This group is large enough to win him narrow victories in 3-way-races in places like Alabama or Georgia but it has failed miserably at delivering any other states. When you look at how poorly Huckabee has done everywhere outside of Iowa and the South I really doubt he will win much against McCain one-on-one.

Especially with the McCain inevitability argument... like blacks for Obama, evangelicals remained skeptical of Huckabee's viability. Now, that will only increase.