The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[Mr. Morden]

Erc, I know this thread is primarily for tracking the Democratic delegates, but you also list the GOP totals, so I figured you might be interested in these stories about McCain picking up delegates in MI & LA:

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/02/states_delegates_move_to_mccai.html

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gUSEb3otSltjMiqOhs0CLj_ma5CAD8URK9HO1

[8 out of 11 is not deserved]

This appeared in NY Post on 2/16.  It would effect some district counts and maybe some delegates.  Limited details.  Might want to look at official NYC results when published.  Might change a few delegates 

"OBAMA ROBBED IN NY
By GINGER ADAMS OTIS
PrintEmailDigg ItRedditPermalinkStory Bottom

February 16, 2008 -- Barack Obama's primary-night results were strikingly under recorded in several congressional districts around the city - in some cases leaving him with zero votes when, in fact, he had pulled in hundreds, the Board of Elections said today

Unofficial primary results gave Obama no votes in nearly 80 districts, including Harlem's 94th and other historically black areas - but many of those initial tallies proved to be wildly off the mark, the Board of Elections confirmed.

Truth is, in some districts getting a recount, the senator from Illinois is even close to defeating Hillary Clinton.

Initial results in the 94th District, for example, showed a 141-0 sweep for the New York senator, but Board of Elections spokeswoman Valerie Vazquez said today that the ongoing recount had changed the tally to 261-136.

As yet, none of the results has been certified, Vazquez said, adding that the Board of Elections had begun a painstaking ballot-by-ballot canvassing of all voting machines four days after the Feb. 5 election.

"We are doing a recanvass, and we will be counting all paper ballots, including absentee ones," Vazquez said.

"Some initial tallies had zeros, but it was most likely due to human error. Those were unofficial numbers, and no confirmed results have been released yet."

In a predominantly black Brooklyn district for which Clinton was given credit for a 118-0 victory on Primary Night, the Board of Elections' latest figures indicate that she may not even come out the winner - Obama currently has 116 votes to her 118. "

[Erc]

Erc, I know this thread is primarily for tracking the Democratic delegates, but you also list the GOP totals, so I figured you might be interested in these stories about McCain picking up delegates in MI & LA:

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/02/states_delegates_move_to_mccai.html

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gUSEb3otSltjMiqOhs0CLj_ma5CAD8URK9HO1

Thanks for the update.  I was wondering about the LA convention results.

Any news out of Guam?  They were supposed to have a convention yesterday, I think.

[Erc]

Very preliminary delegate estimate for Wisconsin:

Obama 41
Clinton 33

If anyone has (any) by-district breakdown, it'd be appreciated.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=719365#president_cd_dem

[Erc]

Thanks, BRTD.

Looks like Obama's going to pull out decisive wins in CDs 3 & 4, so Obama 43 - Clinton 31 looks very likely.

On the Republican side, Huckabee is within 13 votes in CD 3.  Otherwise, McCain wins all the delegates handily.  McCain 37, Huckabee 0, with 3 still too close to call.

[Erc]

Huckabee appears to have pulled ahead in CD 3, so it looks as if he may get 3 delegates tonight out of Wisconsin.

The win in Wisconsin means that McCain and Romney's delegates now form a majority of all delegates.  This means that (A) Huckabee cannot win this short of a floor fight, and (B) McCain has clinched the nomination if Romney delegates follow the endorsement of their candidate.

[Erc]

Just a quick something to note:

If Hillary goes 50-50 in pledged delegates from here on out (certainly not unfeasible), and wins 60% of the remaining unpledged delegates (she's won about 60% of the ones who've endorsed so far), she beats Obama by 3 delegates in the end, even without MI & FL being restored.

So don't declare her dead just yet.

[Erc]

Obama just barely falls short of 75% in Hawai'i's CD 1, so the final delegate count in HI is 14-6 Obama, not 15-5.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just a quick something to note:

If Hillary goes 50-50 in pledged delegates from here on out (certainly not unfeasible), and wins 60% of the remaining unpledged delegates (she's won about 60% of the ones who've endorsed so far), she beats Obama by 3 delegates in the end, even without MI & FL being restored.

So don't declare her dead just yet.

Hmm? I thought the numbers required were higher than that.

[Sam Spade]

Just a quick something to note:

If Hillary goes 50-50 in pledged delegates from here on out (certainly not unfeasible), and wins 60% of the remaining unpledged delegates (she's won about 60% of the ones who've endorsed so far), she beats Obama by 3 delegates in the end, even without MI & FL being restored.

So don't declare her dead just yet.

Hmm? I thought the numbers required were higher than that.

Unpledged delegates are mainly superdelegates, right?  I'm guessing that's the point, although I suspect it won't break that way.  But who knows?

[Mr. Morden]

Just a quick something to note:

If Hillary goes 50-50 in pledged delegates from here on out (certainly not unfeasible), and wins 60% of the remaining unpledged delegates (she's won about 60% of the ones who've endorsed so far), she beats Obama by 3 delegates in the end, even without MI & FL being restored.

So don't declare her dead just yet.

Hmm? I thought the numbers required were higher than that.

No, the number of superdelegates is so large (nearly 800), that if Clinton won 60% of them (to Obama's 40%), that's a 160 delegate advantage right there, which wipes out Obama's current lead among pledged delegates.

Of course, the problem for Clinton is that if Obama does in fact finish the primary season with a pledged delegate lead of over 100, then she is *not* going to be able to get 60% of the superdelegates, barring some extraordinary circumstances.  I just can't see the supers going with Clinton if Obama's pledged delegate lead is that significant.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just a quick something to note:

If Hillary goes 50-50 in pledged delegates from here on out (certainly not unfeasible), and wins 60% of the remaining unpledged delegates (she's won about 60% of the ones who've endorsed so far), she beats Obama by 3 delegates in the end, even without MI & FL being restored.

So don't declare her dead just yet.

Hmm? I thought the numbers required were higher than that.

Unpledged delegates are mainly superdelegates, right?  I'm guessing that's the point, although I suspect it won't break that way.  But who knows?

Yes, but even so I'd assumed the numbers needed were higher. That's the trouble with being terrible at maths I guess.

[Erc]

Right now, Obama is up 162 in pledged delegates [1207.5 - 1045.5, with 988 yet to be assigned]

Clinton is up 74.5 in superdelegates, including states which haven't voted yet [237 - 162.5, with 395.5 yet to commit and 12 pledged Edwards delegates (who are effectively superdelegates at this point)].

This is a net Obama lead of 87.5 delegates.

If Obama and Clinton split the remaining 988 pledged delegates 494 - 494 (being a bit unfriendly to Clinton here), she would need to win the remaining superdelegates 248 - 159.5 [i.e. 61% of them], gaining back a 88.5 delegate margin and winning the nomination 2024.5 to 2023.5.


Note that Clinton is likely to do better than even in the remaining states, however.  In a not unreasonable scenario (Obama wins DA, MS, OR, WY, MT, SD, and Clinton wins the rest [though none by huge margins]), Clinton wins 515.5 delegates to Obama's 472.5.

Net pledged total:
Obama 1680 - Clinton 1561 (+119 Obama)

Including superdelegates:
Obama 1842.5 - Clinton 1798 (+ 44.5 Obama)

Clinton would then only have to win 226.5 out of the remaining 407.5 superdelegates (or 55.6%) in order to win the nomination.

And if, somehow, she gets MI & FL reinstated, she'd only need to win 43% of the remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

In any case, there are enough superdelegates that they can pretty much decide the nomination, no matter what happens in the remaining primaries (barring some extremely improbable results, like 80%/20% margins).  So the real question is what kind of results in the remaining primaries will cause the supers to break one way or the other.

If, for example, Obama ends the primary season with a pledged delegate lead of more than 100, and a lead in the "popular vote", is Clinton really going to be able to get a majority of the superdelegates, let alone 60% of them?

[Erc]

Democratic Bonus Delegates:

In addition to penalizing MI & FL for going early (by stripping them of all of their delegates), the DNC also offered incentives for states to go later in the cycle:

5% more delegates for going in April
10% more delegates for going in May or June
15% more delegates for moving into April (from March or earlier)
30% more delegates for moving into May or June (from April or earlier).

Most states didn't take them up on the offer.  A few states were simply lazy and didn't move their primaries up, and only two states (NC & Guam) actually took advantage of these rules to get more than 10% bonus delegates.

The net result is that states going later in the cycle will be slightly overrepresented at the convention (NC significantly so).

54 'bonus' delegates have been awarded to states as a result:
NC: +24
PA: +7
IN: +6
KY: +4
OR: +4
Puerto Rico: +4
WV: +2
SD: +1
MT: +1
Guam: +1

If Pennsylvania had decided to move their primary back a week (into May), instead of forward a week, they'd have gotten the +30% bonus, and would have received 39 bonus delegates instead of 7.

Will these 54 bonus delegates matter?  Probably not. It'll be hard for anyone to get more than   a +5 delegate margin out of them, anyway.  Though, if either candidate wins NC decisively, who knows.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Both the Representatives from WI-03 and WI-08 have said that they would endorse and vote for as a superdelegate for whoever carried their district (with the WI-03 Rep also condemning the superdelegate system and calling for its elimination.) So there's two more superdelegate votes for Obama if not tallied yet.

[Erc]

Both the Representatives from WI-03 and WI-08 have said that they would endorse and vote for as a superdelegate for whoever carried their district (with the WI-03 Rep also condemning the superdelegate system and calling for its elimination.) So there's two more superdelegate votes for Obama if not tallied yet.

I got WI-03, but not WI-08 (I don't think he's issued an official statement yet that he's endorsing Obama, so I hadn't caught it).  I'll add him in though.

[© tweed]

who is the one New York Obama superdelegate?

[Erc]

Marianne Spraggins, a DNC member.  (She was also a superdelegate in 2000 & 2004).  There's a slight possibility that she's moved to Georgia, but she's still a superdelegate (At-Large DNC member).

[Erc]

Democrats Abroad Results:

Obama wins 2 half-delegates to Clinton's 1 in each of the 3 worldwide districts.

Those 9 half-delegates and the 8 half-superdelegates pick the remaining 5 At-Large delegates. 

Of the 8 half-superdelegates, 3 have endorsed Obama, 2 have endorsed Clinton, and 3 are as of yet uncommitted.

Unless all 3 uncommitted ones endorse Obama, the final breakdown in pledged delegates will be Obama 4.5 - Clinton 2.5  (would be 5-2 if the supers all break his way).



Democrats Abroad:
Closed Caucus / Convention
11 Delegates
--4.5 by District
--2.5 At-Large
--4 Unpledged

Democrats Abroad will have 22 delegates, each of whom will have a half vote on the convention floor (hence the half-delegates).

Democrats in each country vote (in person, by mail, or online) to select delegates to Regional Caucuses (to be held March 15 - April 11).  The Regional Caucuses select 3 half-delegates each.  The three regions are:  Americas, Asia-Pacific [Australia, Japan, India, SE Asia], Europe-Middle-East-Africa.

On April 12, the 8 Unpledged delegates [All DNC Members] and the 9 delegates selected at the regional caucuses select the other 5 half-delegates (3 At-Large, 2 Pledged PLEO).

[Erc]

Obama's High Water Mark?

If Clinton is to stage a comeback, it's going to start on March 4th.  Which means that March 3rd may be his high water mark.

Pledged: +165 Obama
Total: +126 Obama
Total Incl. MI/FL: +5 Obama
All Delegates: +3 Clinton

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russ Feingold endorses Obama.

[Erc]

Today's superdelegate endorsements put Obama ahead, even if one includes superdelegates in states already voted & MI & FL.

This leaves only one count in which Clinton is still ahead:  All pledged delegates, all superdelegates (including those from the March & on states), and ML & FL.  Even in that count, she's only up by 8.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm assuming Erc's figures in Iowa are assuming Edwards' state delegates split 50-50 between Hillary and Obama. I just calculated that and got those figures. I'm predicting more 2-1 in Obama's favor, which would result in 27 delegates for Obama compared to Hillary's 18.

Here's a nasty figure for Hillary: Even if 70% of Edwards' state delegates go to her, so she still doesn't come out ahead in Iowa (Obama would have one more delegate.) She'd need around 77% to come out ahead in Iowa. And I think 50/50 is best case scenario for her frankly.