Scotland 2008?

[Harry Hayfield]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7229224.stm is the webpage of the BBC News website that reports Alex Salmond will resign as first minister and call a Scottish election if he loses the vote on the Scottish budget tomorrow at 1700 GMT. Scare Tactics or would he really do that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I though the Scottish Parliament had fixed terms?

[Јas]

My understanding was that the Conservatives would back it; and that in the end so would the Greens.

If a head of government can't get a budget passed, then resignation would usually be an appropriate course of action.

I though the Scottish Parliament had fixed terms?

Dissolution pre-end of term requires a two-thirds majority vote, IIRC.

[afleitch]

If a head of government can't get a budget passed, then resignation would usually be an appropriate course of action.

I agree. However Labour were never going to pass his budget no matter what concessions were made. Of course, as they have a lame duck leader under possible criminal investigation, I would go to the country too.

As far as I know the Tories will back it, as will the Greens.

[Verily]

I though the Scottish Parliament had fixed terms?

Dissolution pre-end of term requires a two-thirds majority vote, IIRC.

Given the current climate, the SNP could probably get everyone except Labour on board with fresh elections. Then it would come down to how many Labourites were willing to oppose elections.

[minionofmidas]

What would happen if the government fell (couldn't pass its budget) and a dissolution vote failed as well? What kind of government would take over?

[afleitch]

What would happen if the government fell (couldn't pass its budget) and a dissolution vote failed as well? What kind of government would take over?

None. It all depends on who can group together without fresh elections. Labour may not vote to pass the budget, but they are not in a position to vote for dissolution because it would mean voting with the SNP. Labour are also not in a position to justify it to the electorate or fight an election, certainly not financially. They are already viewed as, and can easily be potrayed as 'stick in the muds' who have failed to understand they are no longer in power in Holyrood or across a huge swathe of local government. Labour MSP's who's careers have spanned the burgh hall to Holyrood have not known what it means to be in opposition have failed to adjust accordingly in Holyrood.

The SNP can continue with a month by month budget but it is impractical and would effectively stall most other pieces of legislation.

[The Mikado]

Cui bono?

Will SNP gain/lose seats in a new election?

[Harry Hayfield]

Gain, if this poll from the end of December is any guide

Constituency vote
SNP:  40% (+7)
Lab:  29% (-3)
Lib Dem:  13% (-3)
Con:  12% (-5)
Other:  6% 

Regional vote:
SNP:  34% (+3)
Lab:  26% (-3)
Con:  13% (-1)
Lib Dem:  13% (+2)
Green:  9% (+5)
ScotSol:  3% (+2)
Sol:  1% 
Oth:  2%

[Hash]

Gain, if this poll from the end of December is any guide

Constituency vote
SNP:  40% (+7)
Lab:  29% (-3)
Lib Dem:  13% (-3)
Con:  12% (-5)
Other:  6% 

Regional vote:
SNP:  34% (+3)
Lab:  26% (-3)
Con:  13% (-1)
Lib Dem:  13% (+2)
Green:  9% (+5)
ScotSol:  3% (+2)
Sol:  1% 
Oth:  2%

Applied to ScotlandVotes:

SNP 47
Lab 45
LD 13
Con 14
Green 10

[minionofmidas]

Gain, if this poll from the end of December is any guide

Constituency vote
SNP:  40% (+7)
Lab:  29% (-3)
Lib Dem:  13% (-3)
Con:  12% (-5)
Other:  6% 

Regional vote:
SNP:  34% (+3)
Lab:  26% (-3)
Con:  13% (-1)
Lib Dem:  13% (+2)
Green:  9% (+5)
ScotSol:  3% (+2)
Sol:  1% 
Oth:  2%

Applied to ScotlandVotes:

SNP 47
Lab 45
LD 13
Con 14
Green 10

Uh... how did you get that?

Correct figures:
SNP 51
Labour 37
LD 16
Con 15
Green 9
SSP 1

Of which direct seats:
SNP 44
Labour 22
LD 6
Con 1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given the current climate, the SNP could probably get everyone except Labour on board with fresh elections.

Why? The only party that would be certain to make gains would be the SNP. How would the smaller parties benefit from a stronger SNP government? (I may be looking at this in the wrong way though).

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Given the state of the Scottish Labour Party, all-to-most I'd think.

[minionofmidas]

Given the current climate, the SNP could probably get everyone except Labour on board with fresh elections.

Why? The only party that would be certain to make gains would be the SNP. How would the smaller parties benefit from a stronger SNP government? (I may be looking at this in the wrong way though).

The Greens?

One would think that,should the budget fail, LDs and Tories have more to lose (in the mid run) from refusing new elections than agreeing to them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Greens?

One would think that,should the budget fail, LDs and Tories have more to lose (in the mid run) from refusing new elections than agreeing to them.

Wouldn't they just get drowned out, even more than in 2007, by fresh elections over an issue like this though?

[minionofmidas]

The Greens?

One would think that,should the budget fail, LDs and Tories have more to lose (in the mid run) from refusing new elections than agreeing to them.

Wouldn't they just get drowned out, even more than in 2007, by fresh elections over an issue like this though?

Yeah, but being to blame for chaos might be worse.

[afleitch]

The budget passed. SNP and the Conservatives voted to pass it. Labour and the Lib Dems abstained, which after weeks of unconstructive opposition is a bit of a climbdown.

[minionofmidas]

The budget passed. SNP and the Conservatives voted to pass it. Labour and the Lib Dems abstained, which after weeks of unconstructive opposition is a bit of a climbdown.

See? None of them wanted new elections.