official Super Tuesday commentary thread (Democrat)

[emailking]

MSNBC has called it.  It is Hillary's night, but the campaign will continue, IMO.

It looks big in CA.

early...................voting...........

It's not that we're seeing the early vote. It's that we are seeing many precinct results, all of which had early voting (as they all did).

[Sam Spade]

Look, people.  Please stop with the spinning.  It's getting ridiculous

The race is far from over, but a big Hillary win in CA is extremely important, IMHO.

[MarkWarner08]

I won't lie and say that tonight was disappointing. Still, Obama is not finished. In the end, Obama's enormous margins in the small states will do a lot to bring the delegate count at least reasonably close. That assumes a little bit of narrowing in California, but not a whole lot. Clinton will get the media narrative, but, as some have said, the states shortly after today favor Obama somewhat (generically) in my opinion. I don't think this ends the race by any stretch of the imagination.

A 12 or 13 win night for Obama is better than most here predicted. Unfortuantely, his upsets occurred in small states, not the biggies like CA, MA, and NJ.

[TheresNoMoney]

I won't lie and say that tonight was disappointing.

How is tonight disappointing? I don't come away with that impression at all.

The media narrative will probably be how Obama won 14 of 22 states!

[Sbane]

dont worry cali will close a lot more. Alameda county isnt even in right now. I truly dont believe the exit polls saying clinton did as well in the bay area as down south but we shall see. Clinton will definitely win cali but if u think she will win by 20% you are smoking something.

[MarkWarner08]

Look, people.  Please stop with the spinning.  It's getting ridiculous

The race is far from over, but a big Hillary win in CA is extremely important, IMHO.

Obama won the white vote in CA. That's the big story from the Golden State.

Hillary's own campaign director said  they had CA in the bag. I don't understand why you're buying the media hype about CA.

[© tweed]

Look, people.  Please stop with the spinning.  It's getting ridiculous

The race is far from over, but a big Hillary win in CA is extremely important, IMHO.

define 'big'

if she wins by 22, that's bad.  if she wins by 9, not as much.  depends much on how the delegates shake down, of course, and Obama appears to have the edge for the next month with WA, LA, the Beltway, and Wisconsin.

[Keystone Phil]

California called for Clinton.

And it didn't take hours like Missouri.

Take that Obama supporters.

But...


but...


There was an upset in Connecticut! What do you mean Obama isn't the nominee?

oh please...how old are you...5....6? honestly

It's fine when others brag and mock but I can't?

I'll go easy on you. You weren't here to deal with certain bragging and mocking directed my way after a certain political figure I admire lost handily. What goes around, comes around. Maybe this will teach us all to grow up.

Plus, some Obama supporters really need to wake up and I'm not the only one who believes that. Several partisan Dems here feel the same way.

Look, people.  Please stop with the spinning.  It's getting ridiculous

LOL Obama supporters going a contest without spinning? Good luck with that.

I won't lie and say that tonight was disappointing.

How is tonight disappointing? I don't come away with that impression at all.

The media narrative will probably be how Obama won 14 of 22 states!

Uh, not really. The media has been repeating how "delegates pick nominees, not states."

[Flying Dog]

MSNBC has called it.  It is Hillary's night, but the campaign will continue, IMO.

It looks big in CA.

early...................voting...........

It's...........................over............................

I know. I am just saying don't expect her to win by a 22% margin.

[J. J.]

Obama lost the the Latino vote by 30 points; Hillary had 57% of the women.

[Colin]

I won't lie and say that tonight was disappointing.

The media narrative will probably be how Obama won 14 of 22 states!

Please, don't kid yourself. The media narrative will be "Clinton wins California and the Northeast" not "Obama Wins a Bunch of Little Caucus States in Flyover Country". Obama has a good amount to spin but the media will be focused on California and the other large states. I also expect them to continue the constant droning about the delegate count which could be a wash for both.

[WalterMitty]

The race is far from over, but a big Hillary win in CA is extremely important, IMHO.

^^^^^

[Sam Spade]

Look, people.  Please stop with the spinning.  It's getting ridiculous

The race is far from over, but a big Hillary win in CA is extremely important, IMHO.

Obama won the white vote in CA. That's the big story from the Golden State.

Hillary's own campaign director said  they had CA in the bag. I don't understand why you're buying the media hype about CA.

I'm not buying any media hype - but the media hype is important in shaping outcomes.

[exopolitician]

I dont care what the media has to say on it, my take is we had a good night. We won some we lost some...and we lost California. Boohoo....onwards to to later states!

and you arent bragging and mocking...your acting like a child and embaressing yourself.

[Speed of Sound]

I never thought this day would come, but I guess its finally time to block KPhil.....Sorry buddy...

[J. J.]

Look, people.  Please stop with the spinning.  It's getting ridiculous

The race is far from over, but a big Hillary win in CA is extremely important, IMHO.

define 'big'

if she wins by 22, that's bad.  if she wins by 9, not as much.  depends much on how the delegates shake down, of course, and Obama appears to have the edge for the next month with WA, LA, the Beltway, and Wisconsin.

Double digits.  Obama just lost his Mo-bama.

[Sam Spade]

Look, people.  Please stop with the spinning.  It's getting ridiculous

The race is far from over, but a big Hillary win in CA is extremely important, IMHO.

define 'big'

if she wins by 22, that's bad.  if she wins by 9, not as much.  depends much on how the delegates shake down, of course, and Obama appears to have the edge for the next month with WA, LA, the Beltway, and Wisconsin.

Anything over +10 is bad, anything over +15 is terrible...  Just in the way the media tells things.

[Keystone Phil]

Obama won the white vote in CA. That's the big story from the Golden State.

LOL! Does he somehow win 75% of the delegates because he won the white vote?

I'm waiting for someone to argue that, by the way...

I dont care what the media has to say on it, my take is we had a good night. We won some we lost some...and we lost California. Boohoo....onwards to to later states!

and you arent bragging and mocking...your acting like a child and embaressing yourself.

I am, too, mocking those that believe only the Obama victories matter. I'm not embarrassing myself either. I know plenty of people (Democrats, too) that agree that the Obamamaniacs are out of control with their spin.

I never thought this day would come, but I guess its finally time to block KPhil.....Sorry buddy...

Awwwwww. Make sure you keep the Obama spammers visible though!

[Eraserhead]

I won't lie and say that tonight was disappointing.

How is tonight disappointing? I don't come away with that impression at all.

The media narrative will probably be how Obama won 14 of 22 states!

John Zogby got everyone's hopes up about CA. We should have known better.

[Speed of Sound]

MSNBC calls MO for Obama

[© tweed]

Obama 'apparent winner' in Missouri - MSNBC

[MarkWarner08]

Cautionary note to those who argue CA is critical:

With more than a fifth of the Feb. 5 delegates, California is Super Tuesday's richest prize. The state has long been a Clinton stronghold _ so much so that her California campaign director already has predicted victory.


"We've got it," director Ace Smith said, noting that the campaign has already met or exceeded early voting targets that are considered a strong indicator of primary day performance. About half of the state's Democrats are expected to cast absentee ballots, and many began nearly a month ago, on Jan. 7.

[Хahar 🤔]

!

[Colin]

I dont care what the media has to say on it, my take is we had a good night.

You should since the media are usually the givers and takers of momentum and often shape the political reality especially in a tight primary race like this. You should care what they say, that's what spin and media relations are all about.

[Lief 🗽]

MSNBC calls Missouri.