*what if* obama's losing streak continues today...

[WalterMitty]

well ill certainly be happy, but what excuses will you obama supporters be giving?

[cp]

I'm not an Obama supporter, but from what the polls and pundits have been saying . . .

Obama's loss here would be a surprise, even to the most ardent doubter. His presumed strength among black voters has made it difficult for Clinton or Edwards to make a convincing claim to winning the state for the past month. If he loses it will mean he either failed to attract white voters (making him a latter-day Jesse Jackson) or failed to retain black voters (making his candidacy all the more doubtful).

Depending on how the vote splits, Obama could point to Clinton sucking up all the white voters or splitting the black vote denying him victory. Regardless, a loss here would take off the last of his youthful, shiney audacity and, more importantly, cast him as an inspiring speaker who can't bring people out to the polls.

All this being said, I don't think it will happens. History rarely repeats itself so I don't think the polling fiasco in NH can be counted on to upset Clinton into the lead. Obama's support among whites has been slipping of late but he's consolidated enough support among blacks to all but ensure a victory. What will really matter is who comes in second and by how much. If Edwards makes a strong showing it will frustrate Clinton and keep hope alive for Obama supporters that he can win by staying 'above the fray' on super tuesday. If Clinton manages to keep a close enough second that no winner can be called till late in the night, it will make Obama's victory a pyrrhic one, sapping any momentum he may have hoped for going into Florida on Tuesday.

My prediction:

Obama: 43
Clinton: 39
Edwards: 14

[Nym90]

Diebold.

Well if Obama does somehow lose, then the Bradley effect is not only alive and well, but in fact more severe than ever before. Presumably another cause could or would be if black turnout just absolutely tanks compared to what the polls are predicting.

[WalterMitty]

but if obama were to lose today, wouldnt it be the knockout punch?

[Lincoln Republican]

If Obama loses South Carolina, his campaign for the Democratic nominatiion is for all intents and puruposes finished.

Losing a state he was by all accounts expected to win handily would be devastating to his future prospects.

He would be seen as losing the white vote and not able to hold onto the black vote. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If Obama loses today, then his campaign is pretty much sunk.  If he loses to Edwards, then Edwards gets a shot of life; Hillary can dismiss a third place finish, since she wasn't really contesting the state, and the bigger story would be Obama losing.

[cp]

I considered it a given that a loss in SC would end Obama's campaign. It wouldn't be so much that his support would dry up (see the 'Democratic Unity' thread), just that his money would be gone and the press would be ready to coronate Clinton.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I don't think it will.  At least I hope to God it won't.  My prediction:

SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY -
44% (D) Obama
29% (D) Clinton
26% (D) Edwards

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If around about half of SC Democrats are Black, then it would take some skill for him to lose with the race as it is.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I considered it a given that a loss in SC would end Obama's campaign. It wouldn't be so much that his support would dry up (see the 'Democratic Unity' thread), just that his money would be gone and the press would be ready to coronate Clinton.

I don't see him losing but this sounds correct.

[Person Man]

What if Hillary comes in third?

[Ben.]

If Obama lost SC he'd be dead, even a narrow win over Clinton could be damaging... for Obama he has to secure a very solid win in SC (and really needs to hope for 25-30% of the white vote in the state).

My head says Obama simply cant lose SC... but after NH and the way things have gone since my gut says there could be a horrible surprise...  

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama must win SC today and solidly but, more importantly, watch to see how well he polls among white, and older, voters

According, to the latest SUSA, whites are split evenly between Clinton and Edwards, at 38%, with Obama trailing on 21%. Among age groups, Clinton leads Obama only among the over 65s, 40% to 31%

I may be mistaken but I'd guess that many white SC Democrats tend to be older (i.e. ancestral 'yellow dogs', who are much too southern to vote Republican), possibly more conservative and therein lies a glimmer of hope. Conservatives (16%) favor Edwards at 39%, but they favor Obama over Clinton by 35% to 21%

I agree with Ben , who has cited that Obama needs to hope for between 25 to 30 per cent of the white vote

Of course, then there is the so-called 'Bradley effect' which may be overstating support for Obama in the polls

Dave

[Sam Spade]

If around about half of SC Democrats are Black, then it would take some skill for him to lose with the race as it is.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Democratic Hawk]

Of course, should Obama win handidly and Edwards were to pip Clinton for 2nd place, then it's better still for Obama

Dave

[MarkWarner08]

One sentence answer: If Obama loses today, he's done.

[Eraserhead]

Obama won't lose today Walter... your candidate will. Sorry.

[Flying Dog]

I'll turn goth.

[riceowl]

sigh...

what is the Bradley effect?

[Person Man]

I'll turn goth.

Will you become nomadic?

[Democratic Hawk]

sigh...

what is the Bradley effect?

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

"The term Bradley effect or Wilder effect refers to an explanation advanced as the possible cause of a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate ..."

Dave

[Flying Dog]

I'll turn goth.

Will you become nomadic?

I'll definitely go north if Clinton gets the nomination.

[Person Man]

I'll turn goth.

Will you become nomadic?

I'll definitely go north if Clinton gets the nomination.

Sack any cities?

[WalterMitty]

Obama won't lose today Walter... your candidate will. Sorry.

no big deal.  my candidate can afford to lose.  yours cant.

[John Dibble]

Obama won't lose today Walter... your candidate will. Sorry.

no big deal.  my candidate can afford to lose.  yours cant.

She can afford a second place loss, but a third place loss would be a big blow to her campaign, though admittedly not as big of one if Obama doesn't win.