SC PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Obama dominates SC.

[Flying Dog]

New Poll: South Carolina President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-01-21

Summary:

Obama:	44%
Clinton:	28%
Edwards:	15%
Other:	1%
Undecided:	12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Flying Dog]

Clinton has basically given up campaigning in South Carolina. However, her husband is still in the state stumping for her. I would caution Obama not to get complacent. Remember NH.

[© tweed]

Clinton has basically given up campaigning in South Carolina. However, her husband is still in the state stumping for her. I would caution Obama not to get complacent. Remember NH.

I don't think Bradley will have an big of an impact in SC as it did in NH.  I don't think it works on black people.

[Eraserhead]

Blowout? *Crosses Fingers*

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

OK - I'm not argree or disagreeing with this theory... I'm just laying it out there.

I heard someone on the NewsHour suggest that for Obama to win SC by this margin or bigger, might be worse for him, in the long run than if it were a close win.

[Eraserhead]

OK - I'm not argree or disagreeing with this theory... I'm just laying it out there.

I heard someone on the NewsHour suggest that for Obama to win SC by this margin or bigger, might be worse for him, in the long run than if it were a close win.

WTF? Can't we cut this guy a break?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

OK - I'm not argree or disagreeing with this theory... I'm just laying it out there.

I heard someone on the NewsHour suggest that for Obama to win SC by this margin or bigger, might be worse for him, in the long run than if it were a close win.

WTF? Can't we cut this guy a break?

No... I'm not saying it's preferable.  Settle down - I'll explain the logic behind the theory.

The SUGGESTION  was that if Obama wins SC by a big margin, given the proportion of the primary voters being AA, and he doesn't win a majority of any other group. It makes race a BIG determining factor in his success, something Obama has really been able to avoid.

I'm not saying it's right or appropriate... I'm just reporting.

If Obama wins by this margin or bigger, I'll congratulate him.

[Angel of Death]

OK - I'm not argree or disagreeing with this theory... I'm just laying it out there.

I heard someone on the NewsHour suggest that for Obama to win SC by this margin or bigger, might be worse for him, in the long run than if it were a close win.

I was thinking the same thing. Expect a whole deck of race cards being thrown about by the Clintons while *still* being subtle about it.

[Lief 🗽]

If he beats Clinton by 16%, I'd have to think he's at least tie when it comes to the white vote.

[© tweed]

If he beats Clinton by 16%, I'd have to think he's at least tie when it comes to the white vote.

no...  if we assume that the electorate will be half black, half-white, that would then ifer that Obama could only beat Clinton among blacks by 32% when in reality it will be by about 60%.

[War on Want]

If he beats Clinton by 16%, I'd have to think he's at least tie when it comes to the white vote.

Not really. Edwards is beating him with the white vote, and is doing almost as well as Clinton.

[Verily]

If he beats Clinton by 16%, I'd have to think he's at least tie when it comes to the white vote.

Not really. Edwards is beating him with the white vote, and is doing almost as well as Clinton.

Not if this poll came to be true. Edwards has led him in the white vote, but only in the Rasmussen poll that had him ahead by only 5 (which was right after NH and has since been superseded by a Rasmussen poll showing him up 13, although I admit not having seen the breakdown of it). No poll has shown Edwards doing comparably to Clinton in the white vote; it looked something like:

Blacks
Obama: 65
Clinton: 15
Edwards: 2

Whites
Clinton: 35
Edwards: 23
Obama: 20

[Eraserhead]

I hope Obama beats Edwards among white voters. I know he won't beat Clinton.

[Eraserhead]

OK - I'm not argree or disagreeing with this theory... I'm just laying it out there.

I heard someone on the NewsHour suggest that for Obama to win SC by this margin or bigger, might be worse for him, in the long run than if it were a close win.

WTF? Can't we cut this guy a break?

No... I'm not saying it's preferable.  Settle down - I'll explain the logic behind the theory.

The SUGGESTION  was that if Obama wins SC by a big margin, given the proportion of the primary voters being AA, and he doesn't win a majority of any other group. It makes race a BIG determining factor in his success, something Obama has really been able to avoid.

I'm not saying it's right or appropriate... I'm just reporting.

If Obama wins by this margin or bigger, I'll congratulate him.

Just to clarify, I wasn't reacting to you Polnut. I was just reacting to these absurd theories being put forth by pundits.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

OK - I'm not argree or disagreeing with this theory... I'm just laying it out there.

I heard someone on the NewsHour suggest that for Obama to win SC by this margin or bigger, might be worse for him, in the long run than if it were a close win.

WTF? Can't we cut this guy a break?

No... I'm not saying it's preferable.  Settle down - I'll explain the logic behind the theory.

The SUGGESTION  was that if Obama wins SC by a big margin, given the proportion of the primary voters being AA, and he doesn't win a majority of any other group. It makes race a BIG determining factor in his success, something Obama has really been able to avoid.

I'm not saying it's right or appropriate... I'm just reporting.

If Obama wins by this margin or bigger, I'll congratulate him.

Just to clarify, I wasn't reacting to you Polnut. I was just reacting to these absurd theories being put forth by pundits.

Gotcha

[Flying Dog]

Obama also leads 45-29% among women. Ouch.

He leads 43-27% among men.

[Eraserhead]

Obama also leads 45-29% among women. Ouch.

He leads 43-27% among men.

No gender gap? That is an interesting development.

[Gabu]

Obama also leads 45-29% among women. Ouch.

He leads 43-27% among men.

No gender gap? That is an interesting development.

One which also makes me unfortunately wary of believing this poll.

[Verily]

Obama also leads 45-29% among women. Ouch.

He leads 43-27% among men.

No gender gap? That is an interesting development.

One which also makes me unfortunately wary of believing this poll.

It's PPP, which has never seemed all that reliable in the past. Still, they do seem to agree with other polling of the race, more or less, though are marginally more favorable to Obama.

[Eraserhead]

Obama also leads 45-29% among women. Ouch.

He leads 43-27% among men.

No gender gap? That is an interesting development.

One which also makes me unfortunately wary of believing this poll.

It's PPP, which has never seemed all that reliable in the past. Still, they do seem to agree with other polling of the race, more or less, though are marginally more favorable to Obama.

Eh... I really wouldn't be that shocked if there wasn't much of a gender gap here. Black women are going to go very strongly for Obama.

[Alcon]

That's actually a good point.

The black electorate in South Carolina should be much more female than the white electorate.

[Gustaf]

That's actually a good point.

The black electorate in South Carolina should be much more female than the white electorate.

Exactly. Black women always turn out in much higher proportions than black men. So I'd expect that to reduce the gender gap quite a bit.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yep in the SC Dem primary race trumps everything else.

[HardRCafé]

Obama also leads 45-29% among women. Ouch.

He leads 43-27% among men.

That is, in scientific terms, pretty friggin' awesome.