John Edwards wins Iowa in 2008.

[War on Want]

In January 1st John Edwards decides to put even more money into Iowa, and bombs the state with a massive ad, talking about he would help the Middle Class succeed. This helps him with some manufacturing workers who were thinking about voting for Clinton and it puts him over the top in Iowa.
On January 3rd John Edwards dominates in the rural counties, and does well in some of the manufacturing areas.
With 50% of the precincts in the race looks like this:
John Edwards 38%
Barrack Obama 30.5%
Hillary Clinton 30%
Bill Richardson 1.5%

Unfortunatley for Edwards, the city results started to come in and Obama and Clinton gained many votes in the suburbs. This was not enough for Obama though and he still looses by a small margin.
Results:
John Edwards 34%
Barrack Obama 32.5%
Hillary Clinton 30%
Bill Richardson 3%

The next day polls showed a major shakeup in New Hampshire with John Edwards surging and both Clinton and Obama falling dramatically.
Rassmussen Poll 1/05/07:
Hillary Clinton 30%
Barrack Obama 27%
John Edwards 25%
Bill Richardson 5%
Undecided 13%

[Hash]

Interesting...

[War on Want]

During the next few days before the New Hampshire primary a very heated contest emerged between Edwards and Obama against Clinton, but there was no crying incident and during the debates Edwards and Obama did not attack Clinton as much. The day before the election Rassmussen came out with their final poll for New Hampshire:
Hillary Clinton 33%
John Edwards 27%
Barrack Obama 26%
Bill Richardson 4%
Undecided 10%

During the day of the primary most pundits thought that it looked hopeless for Obama at this point and that he was not going to make a good performance at all.
 Unfortunatley for these pundits a massive Independent wave for Obama happened, and with 50% of the precincts reporting a major shake up seemed to be happeneing.
New Hampshire Results. 50% of the precincts reporting:
Hillary Clinton 35%
Barrack Obama 34%
John Edwards 29%
Bill Richardson 1%

During the next few hours Barrack Obama gained enourmously when most of the college towns came in with results. John Edwards also made some gains when more results from Manchester and Berlin came in. All in all a major shake up happened and it looked like the rest of the race was going to be a heated three way battle.
Results:
Barrack Obama 35%
Hillary Clinton 32%
John Edwards 31%
Bill Richardson 2%


Meanwhile the Republicans had a bitter contest in which John McCain barely beat out Mitt Romney because of his loss of so many Independent voters. Ron Paul made a surprising showing, in which he beat Rudy Giulani.
Results:
John McCain 36%
Mitt Romney 33%
Mike Huckabee 14%
Ron Paul 9%
Rudy Giulani 7%

[War on Want]

Do you guys want me to make a map for New Hampshire and Iowa?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Do you guys want me to make a map for New Hampshire and Iowa?

Why not. Interesting thus far.

[War on Want]

Do you guys want me to make a map for New Hampshire and Iowa?

Why not. Interesting thus far.

Thanks. Okay the map might take a while but I will post it when ever I can.

[War on Want]

Okay the maps have been edited into the results for a while now, an update on Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina will be coming very soon.

[War on Want]

During the next few days all the polls changed dramitically across the nation. Both Barrack Obama and John Edwards had been able to defeat what seemed inevtible, and were making massive gains across the nation. Soon after Bill Richardson pulled out and endorsed John Edwards for president saying he was the man, that could best help Latinos in America.
The Republicans were going through the same thing but with Mitt Romney and Rudi Giuliani being crushed, by a relativley unknown governor, and John McCain, whoose campaign had been declared dead not long before.
Now Polls in Michigan showed a massive shakeup there, with a three man race happening:
Zogby Poll 1/14/08
John McCain 24%
Mitt Romney 22%
Mike Huckabee 21%
Ron Paul 7%
Rudy Giuliani 5%
Fred Thompson 3%
Undecided 19%

On the night of the 15th, a tight race emerged with Mitt Romney taking the Eastern Part of the state, Mike Huckabee leading in the UP, and John McCain leading in the West. Nobody was leading by a substantial margin, but with 100% of the precincts in Mitt Romney barely won Michigan, with Mike Huckabee getting a close second place, and John McCain not far behind.
Michigan Republican Results:
Mitt Romney 30%
Mike Huckabee 29.5%
John McCain 28%
Ron Paul 7%
Rudy Giulaini 2%
Fred Thompson 1%

Michigan Democratic Results:
Hillary Clinton 53%
Uncommitted 42%
Dennis Kucinich 5%

While the Michigan results, didn't have any affect on the Democrats, they certainly did on the Republicans, where Mitt Romney was barely edging out a lead in Nevada. Major news did happen 3 days after Michigan, when the Culinary Union finally made an endorsement of John Edwards greatly helping him out.
Nevada State University Democratic and Republican Polls:
Barrack Obama 30%
John Edwards 27%
Hillary Clinton 25%
Dennis Kucinich 2%
Undecided 18%

Republicans:
Mitt Romney 22%
John McCain 20%
Mike Huckabee 18%
Rudy Giuliani 16%
Ron Paul 10%
Fred Thompson 5%
Undecided 9%

[War on Want]

The night when results started to come in from Nevada, everything was very confusing to many voters. Leaders changed quickly, because of the polarization between candidates in many parts of Nevada. With 49% of the results in, Edwards had a small lead, but many of the suburbs of Nevada had not come in yet, and these were going strongly for Clinton and Obama. With the Repubicans it was the same except McCain was winning, and the suburbs were leaning towards Romney.
Nevada Republican Results 50% Precincts Reporting:
John McCain 24%
Mitt Romney 23%
Mike Huckabee 19%
Rudy Giulaini 15%
Ron Paul 12%
Fred Thompson 7%

Nevada Democratic Results 50% Precincts Reporting:
John Edwards 33%
Hillary Clinton 31%
Barrack Obama 20%
Dennis Kucinich 3%

As the night when on Barrack Obama gained a slim lead over John Edwards, and won the caucaus barely, while Hillary Clinton got third. On the Republicans side of the field, Mitt Romney crushed John McCain greatly in the suburbs of Las Vegas and Reno, and got a fairly big victory.

Nevada Democratic Results:
Barrack Obama 32%
John Edwards 31%
Hillary Clinton 30%
Dennis Kucinich 3%

Nevada Republican Results:
Mitt Romney 29%
John McCain 27%
Mike Huckabee 22%
Rudy Giulani 13%
Ron Paul 13%
Fred Thompson 6%

[War on Want]

Do you guys think this is realistic? What do I need to put into this WI to make it better?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think a John Edwards IA win would help Obama MORE than his own victory there. It's more likely that the anti-Clinton vote would be split.

But it's an interesting thought none-the-less.

[War on Want]

I am starting this up again, because of how this race has been.

More polarization across both the Democratic and Republican parties happened, as Mitt Romney slowly gained momentum lost after loosing New Hampshire and Iowa, and as Barrack Obama's campaign regained its previous enthusiasm. Dennis Kucinich finally dropped out and endorsed Obama, but this changed little. Meanwhile in South Carolina, John Edwards was starting to crush Clinton among White voters, who saw him as the "Native" son, while Clinton was actually rising among African-American voters, over small issues. Meanwhile the Republican race was already over in South Carolina, on the days of the Nevada caucauses.
South Carolina Republican Results
Mike Huckabee 35%
John McCain 30%
Fred Thompson 15%
Mitt Romney 14%
Rudy Giuliani 4%
Ron Paul 3%

The Republican race began to heat up very quickly after this, with Mike Huckabee gaining frontrunner status, but with a super contested primaries. In a debate in Florida right after the South Carolina primaries, Mitt Romney, and John McCain attacked Huckabee very harshly on some of his Economic policies. Rudy Giuliani also jumped in as a way to help his lackluster campaign.
Meanwhile the Democrats faced off in a debate right before South Carolina, where John Edwards, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton fought each other very hard over Free Trade and some Economic Issues.
Zogby Poll January 24th
Barrack Obama 37%
John Edwards 28%
Hillary Clinton 25%
Undecided 10%

Meanwhile as the South Carolina Primaries came on, it looked like John Edwards had dominated among White voters, taking 65% of them leaving Clinton and Obama tidbits, while among African-Americans, Obama won by a fairly large margin with 60% compared to 30% of Clinton, and 10% for Edwards.
South Carolina Democratic Results
Barack Obama 36%
John Edwads 35%
Hillary Clinton 29%

It looked as if the race would tighten even more as the results came out. It looked more and more like a three person race between Clinton-Edwards-Obama, while in the past many pundits sayed Obama's campaign was largely over even though he won New Hampshire.

[Хahar 🤔]

Good update.

[War on Want]

Good update.

Thanks. Oh yeah BTW I will update my Three Party system TL this weekend.


Now as the Republicans and Democrats batteled, it looked like Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney were the big gainers of momentum, and Obama who was once polling 15% in Florida, went up all the way to 30% almost all at once. Now of course the Democratic contest didn't matter, while the Republicans would almost decide who would be running. Most of the campaigns over the next few days was just, positive talk, except for the Giuliani campaign which went all out on Huckabee, Romney and McCain.
Republican Gallup Poll Florida
John McCain 30%
Mitt Romney 23%
Rudy Giuliani 23%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Ron Paul 5%
Undecided 6%

Democratic Gallup Poll Florida
Hillary Clinton 45%
Barack Obama 28%
John Edwards 19%
Undecided 8%

As election day came, it looked like Hispanics were lining up behind Giuliani, who tried hard to appeal to them, while McCain came up short. Mitt Romney did worse than expected with many suburbans voting for Giuliani, because of his "tough" Economic talk.
Florida Republican Results
John McCain 27%
Rudy Giuliani 26.7%
Mitt Romney 25%
Mike Huckabee 18%
Ron Paul 3%

Florida Democratic Results
Hillary Clinton 50%
Barack Obama 28%
John Edwards 22%


In the end the Florida Primaries gave Giuliani new hope and energy and gave Clinton a chance to show that her campaign could still have a chance to win regardless of the past results.