Florida and Ohio

[Fritz]

Here is my take on the election:

If Kerry wins either Florida or Ohio, he will win the election.  Bush needs to win both of these states in order to win.

If we say that the chance of winning either state is 50-50 (which, I think it is), then Kerry has a 75% chance of winning the election, whereas Bush only has a 25% chance.

Flame away.......

[A18]

If Bush wins Pennsylvania and Ohio, he doesn't need Florida. And there are a lot more states in play than those two.

[JohnFKennedy]

Kerry Chance in Florida according to http://www.tradesports.com is 47%.

Kerry Chance in Ohio according to http://www.tradesports.com is 44.8%.

I think I read that right, lol.

[Fritz]

If Bush wins Pennsylvania and Ohio, he doesn't need Florida. And there are a lot more states in play than those two.

Bush won't win Pennsylvania.

Kerry Chance in Florida according to http://www.tradesports.com is 47%.

Kerry Chance in Ohio according to http://www.tradesports.com is 44.8%.

I think I read that right, lol.

If I accept your percent chances as being the correct ones, then Kerry's chance of winning the election falls to 70.744%.

[King]

I think it will all come down to the Debates.


If Bush wins the Debates:



Bush 315; Kerry 223

If Kerry wins the Debates:



Kerry 359; Bush 179

If there is no clear winner:



Bush 269; Kerry 269

[Akno21]

Most debates don't have a clear winner, each side says they won.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It doesn't look like Bush is going to win PA.  I agree, Kerry takes either FL or OH.....he wins.  Bush needs both, Kerry needs one at this point, so I give the advantage to Kerry for now.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I agree, if Kerry wins Ohio or Florida, he will win.

[A18]

Bush has an excellent shot at Pennsylvania (and a smaller shot at Washington). Florida and Ohio are to Bush as Michigan and Wisconsin are to Kerry.

Even if Bush lost Pennsylvania, Florida, AND Ohio, he could win:

[Keystone Phil]

Bush has an excellent shot at Pennsylvania (and a smaller shot at Washington). Florida and Ohio are to Bush as Michigan and Wisconsin are to Kerry.

Even if Bush lost Pennsylvania, Florida, AND Ohio, he could win:

If Bush loses PA and Ohio, he won't win Oregon, Minnesota, Iowa, or Wisconsin.

[Fritz]

Now you're really out there in la-la land.  No way does Bush lose Ohio and Florida, while winning Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon.  (Actually I would say no way will Bush win MN under any circumstances, but I suppose its close enough here that its marginally possible.)

[A18]

Less people voting for him in Ohio doesn't mean Oregon can't vote another way. It'll all come down to what the people of each State decides.

[??????????]

Less people voting for him in Ohio doesn't mean Oregon can't vote another way. It'll all come down to what the people of each State decides.

I've been hollering about that for months now.

[Keystone Phil]

Less people voting for him in Ohio doesn't mean Oregon can't vote another way. It'll all come down to what the people of each State decides.

I've been hollering about that for months now.

It's just unlikely that Bush would lose Ohio (a state that Republicans need to win) but would win in Minnesota (a state we haven't won since 1972)

[??????????]

Less people voting for him in Ohio doesn't mean Oregon can't vote another way. It'll all come down to what the people of each State decides.

I've been hollering about that for months now.

It's just unlikely that Bush would lose Ohio (a state that Republicans need to win) but would win in Minnesota (a state we haven't won since 1972)

Why? The voters of one state don't know how the other state is voting.

[A18]

All I'm saying is, if I ever run for President, remind me not to hire you.

"Let's just spend all the money in Ohio...they can't win without it..."

Anyway, that map was if he lost all three of the big swing states. Even if he got just one, he'd obviously be in a better shape.

[Keystone Phil]

All I'm saying is, if I ever run for President, remind me not to hire you.

"Let's just spend all the money in Ohio...they can't win without it..."

I'm not saying that. All I am trying to point out is that if the voters in Ohio (usually conservative voters) vote for Kerry, I doubt that voters in Oregon (usually center-left) or Minnesota (another center-left state) would vote for Bush.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerry can also win without Ohio or Florida too, increasing his chances even more:



and there is no way Bush will win Washington unless he's winning in a clear landslide. It's not really a swing state. Like Louisiana for Kerry.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

btw, here's proof Kerry can win without California!



about as likely as the maps that have Bush winning without Ohio or Florida.

[A18]

Of course he can. As for 'even more,' how is he advantaged in the first place? PA, FL, and Ohio are all tossups. Both will want two of the three.

Bush has a far better chance at winning Pennsylvania than Kerry has of winning WV.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bush has a far better chance at winning Pennsylvania than Kerry has of winning WV.

http://www.dalythoughts.com/wv/wv.htm
http://www.dalythoughts.com/pa/pa.htm

and this site is ran by a Bush supporter.

[khirkhib]

The TradeSport site is really interesting.

The have Bush winning both Florida and Ohio as a special bet and rate it at 44.7% chance.

Where as they show Bush's chances of winning the election at 51%.

So their must be people that think that Bush can win with out Florida and Ohio right.

OK take out the stupid bets.  Any bet that has a Bush win at over 90% or under 10%.  You could make big money 10:1 odds but I wouldn't recommend it.

Louisiana 85%
Colorada  84%
Viriginia 83%
North Carolina 77%
Tennesee 73%
Arizona 71%
Ohio 58.2%
Missouri 57%
Florida 53%
Nevada 52%
West Virginia 52%
Wisconsin 42%
Iowa 38.4%
New Hampshire 38%
Oregon 36.6%
Minnestota 33.3%
Pennsylvania 31%
Michiagan 30%
Maine 27%
New Mexico 27%
Washington 25%
Maryland 16.9%
New Jersey 15%
Deleware 14%
Illinois 10.5%

Look how safe money shows New Mexico is for Kerry.  The way the states line up right now would seem to put the election in Kerry's favor because he has fair odds of winning Florida, Ohio, or Missouri.

[RReagan4EVER]

 I think Fritz is Right. If Bush doesnt win Ohio and Florida I think Kerry will take the Election.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Kerry holds the official Gore 2000 states, he wins with
1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. Missouri
4. WV + NV

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The TradeSport site is really interesting.

The have Bush winning both Florida and Ohio as a special bet and rate it at 44.7% chance.

Where as they show Bush's chances of winning the election at 51%.

So their must be people that think that Bush can win with out Florida and Ohio right.

OK take out the stupid bets.  Any bet that has a Bush win at over 90% or under 10%.  You could make big money 10:1 odds but I wouldn't recommend it.

Louisiana 85%
Colorada  84%
Viriginia 83%
North Carolina 77%
Tennesee 73%
Arizona 71%
Ohio 58.2%
Missouri 57%
Florida 53%
Nevada 52%
West Virginia 52%
Wisconsin 42%
Iowa 38.4%
New Hampshire 38%
Oregon 36.6%
Minnestota 33.3%
Pennsylvania 31%
Michiagan 30%
Maine 27%
New Mexico 27%
Washington 25%
Maryland 16.9%
New Jersey 15%
Deleware 14%
Illinois 10.5%

Look how safe money shows New Mexico is for Kerry.  The way the states line up right now would seem to put the election in Kerry's favor because he has fair odds of winning Florida, Ohio, or Missouri.

You forgot Arkansas 61.4%