With A Loss In Iowa, What Does Clinton Now Have To Do To Get Back On Track?

[Lincoln Republican]

With Obama now the clear winner in Iowa

Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%

What does Hillary Clinton have to do now to get her campaign back on track?

Please discuss.

[exopolitician]

Dont  up New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada =]

[MarkWarner08]

Win NH. That's her firewall state.

[Aizen]

Win Nevada. She's pretty much done in NH and SC.

[Gabu]

Win New Hampshire, obviously.

If Obama wins New Hampshire on the heels of his huge win in Iowa, Clinton's campaign will be in very dire straits.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

win NH. The independents will have to decide whether to come out for McCain or Obama. She can survive till Super Tuesday. In all honesty, she was never expected to win Iowa. She should've taken her campaigns advice and stay out of the state to avoid the disappointment.

Then she could win NH and all would work from there.

[© tweed]

she has to stay afloat until MegaSuperDuperTuesday and then win NY/NJ/CA if she can...

[Meeker]

I wonder... let's say this turns out to be a complete disaster for Clinton and Obama surges in NH. If Clinton somehow comes in third in NH (Edwards has been rising there recently), could we see a switch to an Edwards vs. Obama race?

[Reignman]

Win Nevada. She's pretty much done in NH and SC.

And winning Nevada should be pretty easy. By Super Duper Tuesday, the two might be neck and neck in those states (after Obama gets momentum from NH, and, to a lesser extent, SC).

[Gabu]

I wonder... let's say this turns out to be a complete disaster for Clinton and Obama surges in NH. If Clinton somehow comes in third in NH (Edwards has been rising there recently), could we see a switch to an Edwards vs. Obama race?

Maybe, but I doubt it.  Edwards doesn't have the national infrastructure set up like Obama and Clinton do.  If Clinton falls apart, it's probably a certainty that Obama would be the nominee.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, I agree with Gabu. He has a chance of winning Nevada, and doing okay in South Carolina, but Obama would take all the big states on Super Tuesday.

[12th Doctor]

I don't think see does.  Not placing a clear second, let alone third kills her.

I have a hard time believing it myself, but Obama runs the table in the North now, Edwards in the South, Hillary won't win many states baring a major campaign screw up or scandal concerning one of the other two.

[Erc]

As others have said...Nevada.  That's her firewall.

Real shame that Michigan is worthless, otherwise she may have had a chance there.

[Eraserhead]

Nobody really cares about Nevada either way. Clinton should just drop out now and save face.

[JSojourner]

As others have said...Nevada.  That's her firewall.

I agree, and post-Nevada debate, she was strong there.  She may still be.  But from what I have heard and read, Edwards has been picking up a lot more labor support in the state.  Which could be big in a Dem primary, since a lot of casino, restaurant and hotel workers are unionized.

Then again, that's what we said about Gephardt in 2004 Iowa!

[Sam Spade]

Well, if Hillary wins NH, her campaign is back on track.  But even a loss in New Hampshire doesn't permanently derail her campaign - what it does is destroy the inevitability aura that helped her build such a big national lead.  Probably means Obama moves back to a tie...

Then the real dogfight begins.

[Erc]

As others have said...Nevada.  That's her firewall.

I agree, and post-Nevada debate, she was strong there.  She may still be.  But from what I have heard and read, Edwards has been picking up a lot more labor support in the state.  Which could be big in a Dem primary, since a lot of casino, restaurant and hotel workers are unionized.

Then again, that's what we said about Gephardt in 2004 Iowa!

I keep on hearing about Edwards' much-vaunted organization and labor support in Nevada.  However, I haven't seen much (polling or otherwise) to convince me that Edwards will do better than a distant third here.

The unions may endorse all they want, but I don't know how much they can do to make sure their guys support a candidate who's going to be dropping further and further off the national radar, his second place in Iowa notwithstanding.

[JSojourner]

As others have said...Nevada.  That's her firewall.

I agree, and post-Nevada debate, she was strong there.  She may still be.  But from what I have heard and read, Edwards has been picking up a lot more labor support in the state.  Which could be big in a Dem primary, since a lot of casino, restaurant and hotel workers are unionized.

Then again, that's what we said about Gephardt in 2004 Iowa!

I keep on hearing about Edwards' much-vaunted organization and labor support in Nevada.  However, I haven't seen much (polling or otherwise) to convince me that Edwards will do better than a distant third here.

The unions may endorse all they want, but I don't know how much they can do to make sure their guys support a candidate who's going to be dropping further and further off the national radar, his second place in Iowa notwithstanding.

Yep, that's what happened to Gephardt.  And to an extent, to Dodd.  He had several unions backing him, including the powerful Firefighters union.  Did absolutely no good. 

And both Hillary and Barack are extremely good at tailoring their message to each state. 

[John Dibble]

She definitely would need to win NH, and I think she might have to win big. If the margin of victory against Obama is small then she's still in trouble. Either way she's got serious competition and getting the nomination won't be easy for her.

[Erc]

Barring a win in New Hampshire for Hillary (and even then), if Hillary still wins this, it likely won't be decided by February 6th.

[MODU]

For starters, she needs to come in second in New Hampshire, being just a few points behind Obama, but many points above Edwards.  If this happens, Edwards will lose his momentum and chance to raise the money he desperately needs to keep his campaign going.  From there, it will be a two-horse race, and I see her picking up big state wins, such as New York for starters.  However, she would need to place first in a bunch of small states as well as to cool Obama's rally.  I think her negative advertising blitz will help with that, and possible suppress voter turnout.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Fire all of her DLCers.

[HardRCafé]

The unions may endorse all they want, but I don't know how much they can do to make sure their guys support a candidate who's going to be dropping further and further off the national radar, his second place in Iowa notwithstanding.

Yep, that's what happened to Gephardt.  And to an extent, to Dodd.  He had several unions backing him, including the powerful Firefighters union.  Did absolutely no good.

That may be the best news of all last night.