EV map for 2020

[Josh/Devilman88]

With the help of muon2, I came up with an EV map for 2020. Now I know this will change, but I used the current population growth for each state ( the population growth for 2007). This what the map may look like.

How I did it
I took the population growth for the year 2007 and muliply it by 13(13 year to 2020). Then I just did the math and add the number to the population of each state.

Ex: AZ had a population growth of 2.8 in 2007. So 2.8 x 13 is 36.4%. 
36.4% x 6,338,755 is 2,307,306. When you add that together AZ population for 2020 is 8,646,061




Here are the changes

-1; CA, IL, MN, IA, MO, NE, LA, WV, MD and RI
-2; MA and NJ
-3; MI, OH and PA
-4; NY

+1; SC, CO, WA, OR, ID and MT
+2; NV, UT, NC and FL
+3; GA and AZ
+7; TX

[muon2]

I know I helped calculate the EV's but you might want to add to the thread on the method you used to get the populations of the states in 2020.

[Tender Branson]

You have to rethink your calculating:

You simply can´t multiply the 2.8% growth rate with 13 and add the 36.4% to the 2007 population. The population is growing year by year with the 2.8%.

That means: 6.338.755 x1.028 = 6.516.240 (2008) x1.028 = 6.698.695 (2009) and so on.

You´ll have a total AZ population of 9.076.417 by 2020.

Calculation method: (Base year population) 6.338.755 x 1.028 (high - in german we call it "hoch")*13

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_growth_model

[Verily]

Calculation method: (Base year population) 6.338.755 x 1.028 (high - in german we call it "hoch")*13

"To the power of" is the equivalent English phrase for exponents.

[Tender Branson]

Calculation method: (Base year population) 6.338.755 x 1.028 (high - in german we call it "hoch")*13

"To the power of" is the equivalent English phrase for exponents, usually typed as 1.028^13.

Thx, that´s what I wanted to post.

[Smid]

I think this would benefit the Dems...

The population growth in Texas, particularly, may lead to the state becoming more Dem. If that's the case, the Republicans will need to shift their positions in order to compete nationally.

Anyone else's thoughts?

[Padfoot]

Its scary to think that Georgia may soon have more votes than Ohio and that Utah could be electing 5 representatives.

[Adam Griffin]

Its scary to think that Georgia may soon have more votes than Ohio

No, it's awesome. Besides, the only reason population growth is exploding here is because Northerners are tired of being cold and Florida was so last century. 

and that Utah could be electing 5 representatives.

That however, is damn frightening.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think this would benefit the Dems...

The population growth in Texas, particularly, may lead to the state becoming more Dem. If that's the case, the Republicans will need to shift their positions in order to compete nationally.

Anyone else's thoughts?

It may well. The Republicans are trying to make inroads in the Rust Belt, but that area'll be less and less meaningful.

[AkSaber]

Ooooooo. Interesting. This is my favorite area of politics: reapportionment.

But I am curious as to why Florida won't gain any EVs in 2020, and why California would lose one.

I was surprised to see Washington, Colorado, Idaho, and Montana slated to gain one. I also wasn't expecting to see WV, MD, NJ, and MA lose any. Rhode Island is going to be down to only one House seat. I was wondering when that would happen.

With the West still gaining so much, I hope the media will start to pay attention to us and stop being so obsessed with everything the Northeast does. I'm not counting on it, though.

[??????????]

I see the economic slowdown we are having now and the eventually collapse in 5-8 years affecting these growth numbers quite a bit.

[cannonia]

I see the economic slowdown we are having now and the eventually collapse in 5-8 years affecting these growth numbers quite a bit.

Yes, I have heard theories and anecdotes that some people who are upside down on their mortgages in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys are moving to less expensive regions (Idaho, Arizona).

[Sbane]

I see the economic slowdown we are having now and the eventually collapse in 5-8 years affecting these growth numbers quite a bit.

Yes, I have heard theories and anecdotes that some people who are upside down on their mortgages in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys are moving to less expensive regions (Idaho, Arizona).

I have another theory for you guys. I think the more conservative californians move to places like Idaho and Arizona due to the lifestyle that is offered there. Arizona is great for Orange county country club republicans and Idaho for rural Californians looking for cheap land that is actually useful. Whereas Nevada attracts more urban californians from the north and south and Colorado attracts silicon valley tech types who are mostly progressive. Thus I can see Arizona being  a republican state for a while whereas I totally expect Nevada to switch this election and Colorado should also become a dem state soon.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

With the help of muon2, I came up with an EV map for 2020. Now I know this will change, but I used the current population growth for each state ( the population growth for 2007). This what the map may look like.

How I did it
I took the population growth for the year 2007 and muliply it by 13(13 year to 2020). Then I just did the math and add the number to the population of each state.

Ex: AZ had a population growth of 2.8 in 2007. So 2.8 x 13 is 36.4%. 
36.4% x 6,338,755 is 2,307,306. When you add that together AZ population for 2020 is 8,646,061




Here are the changes

-1; CA, IL, MN, IA, MO, NE, LA, WV, MD and RI
-2; MA and NJ
-3; MI, OH and PA
-4; NY

+1; SC, CO, WA, OR, ID and MT
+2; NV, UT, NC and FL
+3; GA and AZ
+7; TX

How can Virginia gain nothing?

[Хahar 🤔]

I see the economic slowdown we are having now and the eventually collapse in 5-8 years affecting these growth numbers quite a bit.

Yes, I have heard theories and anecdotes that some people who are upside down on their mortgages in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys are moving to less expensive regions (Idaho, Arizona).

I have another theory for you guys. I think the more conservative californians move to places like Idaho and Arizona due to the lifestyle that is offered there. Arizona is great for Orange county country club republicans and Idaho for rural Californians looking for cheap land that is actually useful. Whereas Nevada attracts more urban californians from the north and south and Colorado attracts silicon valley tech types who are mostly progressive. Thus I can see Arizona being  a republican state for a while whereas I totally expect Nevada to switch this election and Colorado should also become a dem state soon.

I don't think the exodus is that big.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I see the economic slowdown we are having now and the eventually collapse in 5-8 years affecting these growth numbers quite a bit.

Yes, I have heard theories and anecdotes that some people who are upside down on their mortgages in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys are moving to less expensive regions (Idaho, Arizona).

I have another theory for you guys. I think the more conservative californians move to places like Idaho and Arizona due to the lifestyle that is offered there. Arizona is great for Orange county country club republicans and Idaho for rural Californians looking for cheap land that is actually useful. Whereas Nevada attracts more urban californians from the north and south and Colorado attracts silicon valley tech types who are mostly progressive. Thus I can see Arizona being  a republican state for a while whereas I totally expect Nevada to switch this election and Colorado should also become a dem state soon.

I don't think the exodus is that big.

Is this the map for the 2010s apportionment or for the 2020s?  2020 will still use the same EV map as 2012 and 2016.  The '20s map won't start until 2024.  Just like the 2000 EV map was the same as the 1992 and 1996 map.  2004 and 2008 had the '00s map.

[CultureKing]

I see the economic slowdown we are having now and the eventually collapse in 5-8 years affecting these growth numbers quite a bit.

Yes, I have heard theories and anecdotes that some people who are upside down on their mortgages in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys are moving to less expensive regions (Idaho, Arizona).

I have another theory for you guys. I think the more conservative californians move to places like Idaho and Arizona due to the lifestyle that is offered there. Arizona is great for Orange county country club republicans and Idaho for rural Californians looking for cheap land that is actually useful. Whereas Nevada attracts more urban californians from the north and south and Colorado attracts silicon valley tech types who are mostly progressive. Thus I can see Arizona being  a republican state for a while whereas I totally expect Nevada to switch this election and Colorado should also become a dem state soon.

I don't think the exodus is that big.

At the same time that there are people leaving California there are also people moving to Cali, so basically it kinda evens out but really it does have a large effect on other states in the west that have much small populations.

[??????????]

Florida will definitely be slacking off in growth as compared to the places out west that you mention. Our economy is in a slow decline right now and fuel prices are destroying everyone right now.

[AkSaber]

Florida will definitely be slacking off in growth as compared to the places out west that you mention. Our economy is in a slow decline right now and fuel prices are destroying everyone right now.

Damn. I had no idea Florida was on such shaky ground.

Ah, the Iraq War. The fiasco that keeps on giving.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Florida will definitely be slacking off in growth as compared to the places out west that you mention. Our economy is in a slow decline right now and fuel prices are destroying everyone right now.

Damn. I had no idea Florida was on such shaky ground.

Ah, the Iraq War. The fiasco that keeps on giving.

I think part of Florida's impending decline is partly non-political, but weather-related in the form of all the hurricanes that have hit Florida, especially in 2004 and 2005.

[Padfoot]

Florida will definitely be slacking off in growth as compared to the places out west that you mention. Our economy is in a slow decline right now and fuel prices are destroying everyone right now.

Damn. I had no idea Florida was on such shaky ground.

Ah, the Iraq War. The fiasco that keeps on giving.

I think part of Florida's impending decline is partly non-political, but weather-related in the form of all the hurricanes that have hit Florida, especially in 2004 and 2005.

Also, I think Florida is getting an increasingly bad rap for being a crappy place in general.  Its lost some of its luster IMO.  Arizona is the new hotspot for the geriatrics and most of the northerners are moving to the Sunshine State's northern neighbors along the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

[ilikeverin]

By the "economic decline=population decline" criterion, Michigan will have approximately -12 electoral votes by 2020.  Candidates will spend their time in the state punting babies into the Detroit River, exposing themselves publicly in front of large crowds at Ford Field, and stubbornly calling residents "Michiganners", or perhaps "Michigeese".

[Person Man]

So, what would the map, as a whole, look like in 2020?

Is this a good map?

I can see 2030 looking like-

and 2040 looking like-

[Smid]

So, what would the map, as a whole, look like in 2020?

Is this a good map?

I can see 2030 looking like-

and 2040 looking like-

A good map? No. Don't you realise, the maps will look like 2000/2004 for ever?

In all seriousness, though, yeah, that's pretty much what I was thinking when I suggested that these demographic changes could benefit the Dems - with some of the western states currently held by the Republicans being more competitive for the Dems - particularly Texas (depending partially on whether Latinos vote as a block). Urbanisation of some currently less-populous areas would probably help the Dems. Your shading of Texas was spot-on what I was thinking.

The one place where I don't think the population growth will hurt the Republicans, though, is Utah - which is in my opinion (without looking up actual figures) growing because of birth rates, rather than inter-state migration and urbanisation.

[Verily]

Some of those states make no sense. New York is the obvious one; the fastest-growing county in the state in sheer numbers is New York County--Manhattan--while the upstate heavily Republican counties are losing population. There's no sign of this trend reversing.

New Jersey is also odd; the state was a Republican stronghold until relatively recently (the 90s), and peaked Democratic in 2000. I just don't see any reason for the state to move back towards the Republicans again any time soon.

Texas also looks like a faster transition than I would expect, but the 2008 results--importantly, without Bush--will probably tell us whether it really will transition like.

And, of course, Utah. No, Utah will not be competitive, even by 2040, unless the Democratic Party suddenly decides that abortion and gays are the root of all evil and the Mormon church decides to switch unofficial affiliations. Which wouldn't jive--at all--with your map.