Predict Iowa for the Democrats

[Eleden]

Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 20%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 8%
Dodd: 3%
Kucinich: 2%

Yikes.  I hope to god you're wrong. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I have a strange feeling that Edwards might pull an upset and win there. he's been campaigning there for years now. If he does, that may give Hillary the nomination.

[ShadowRocket]

I have a strange feeling that Edwards might pull an upset and win there. he's been campaigning there for years now. If he does, that may give Hillary the nomination.

I don't think an Edwards victory in Iowa would give Hillary the nomination.

[Verily]

I have a strange feeling that Edwards might pull an upset and win there. he's been campaigning there for years now. If he does, that may give Hillary the nomination.

I don't think an Edwards victory in Iowa would give Hillary the nomination.

It would. Edwards has no money or organization anywhere but Iowa, and generally Obama supporters split evenly on their second choice (or are independents who would then go off and vote for McCain in the GOP primaries) rather than breaking strongly for Edwards.

[ShadowRocket]

I have a strange feeling that Edwards might pull an upset and win there. he's been campaigning there for years now. If he does, that may give Hillary the nomination.

I don't think an Edwards victory in Iowa would give Hillary the nomination.

It would. Edwards has no money or organization anywhere but Iowa, and generally Obama supporters split evenly on their second choice (or are independents who would then go off and vote for McCain in the GOP primaries) rather than breaking strongly for Edwards.

I remember there was a survey done in NH that showed that that Edwards in the second choice of Obama supporters there by a 3-1 margin. I think he would get a bounce from an Iowa victory that would lead to those Obama supporters, as well as the supporters of the other candidates, voting for him, allowing him to win the NH primary. He would then be in a good position to see victories in NV (labor support) and SC (favorite son advantage).

[Lief 🗽]

Er... Edwards has money and organization in many more states than Iowa. The whole "Edwards doesn't have any organization or money outside of Iowa" smear is a talking point from the Obama campaign.

[Verily]

Er... Edwards has money and organization in many more states than Iowa. The whole "Edwards doesn't have any organization or money outside of Iowa" smear is a talking point from the Obama campaign.

No, it's the truth. When was the last time Edwards made a campaign appearance somewhere other than Iowa? Simply the fact that he's been barking up the tree in Iowa for months on end (while Clinton and Obama have been dividing their time campaigning both in Iowa and in various other states) and yet isn't even in second in the polls should tell you that he's totally unviable.

[Lief 🗽]

Edwards is holding 4 town halls in NH tomorrow. He swung through the state two weeks ago and a week ago as well. He was in South Carolina earlier this month. He's made more visits to Nevada than any other candidate. The idea that he's been living in Iowa every day for the last year is ridiculous and false.

Edwards has as much, if not more (due to Union endorsements in big states, influential states), organization as John Kerry did in 2004, and he's doing better in the polls that John Kerry was the day before Iowa in 2004. Money, at this point, doesn't mean anything. Howard Dean had 3x as much money as Kerry did in 2004. Kerry had to mortgage his home, he was so broke. So clearly, momentum means more than money.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 20%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 8%
Dodd: 3%
Kucinich: 2%

God Tender, what an optimist you are!

[Likely Voter]

I think IA will have very high Dem turnout...and that will favor Hillary

so I will go with

Clinton: 30%
Obama: 27%
Edwards: 23%
Biden: 7%
Richardson: 6%
Dodd: 5%
Kucinich: 2%
Gravel: 0%

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama- 31%
Clinton- 29%
Edwards-24%
Other- 16%

[Reignman]

Obama: 30%
Edwards: 27%
Hillary: 26%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 6%
Dodd: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Gravel: 0%

That looks about right.

[Eraserhead]

Very high turnout would probably favor Obama. Very low turnout would probably favor Edwards.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

1) Sen. Barack Obama
2) Sen. Hillary Clinton
3) Fmr. Sen. John Edwards
4) Gov. Bill Richardson
5) Sen. Joe Biden

[nini2287]

1-Hillary 29
2-Edwards 28
3-Obama 25
Others 18

[Tender Branson]

Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 20%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 8%
Dodd: 3%
Kucinich: 2%

God Tender, what an optimist you are!

Realist. I don´t trust the Iowa electorate. They´ll go for Hillary on Jan. 3, but I hope I´m terribly wrong ...

[Eraserhead]

Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 20%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 8%
Dodd: 3%
Kucinich: 2%

God Tender, what an optimist you are!

Realist. I don´t trust the Iowa electorate. They´ll go for Hillary on Jan. 3, but I hope I´m terribly wrong ...

I know... you got scared by that phoney ARG poll...

[Aizen]

Edwards is holding 4 town halls in NH tomorrow. He swung through the state two weeks ago and a week ago as well. He was in South Carolina earlier this month. He's made more visits to Nevada than any other candidate. The idea that he's been living in Iowa every day for the last year is ridiculous and false.

Edwards has as much, if not more (due to Union endorsements in big states, influential states), organization as John Kerry did in 2004, and he's doing better in the polls that John Kerry was the day before Iowa in 2004. Money, at this point, doesn't mean anything. Howard Dean had 3x as much money as Kerry did in 2004. Kerry had to mortgage his home, he was so broke. So clearly, momentum means more than money.

I hope you're right. I still have trouble seeing Edwards defeat the Clinton Machine even if he wins Iowa (Knocking out Obama) but he is my second choice and if Obama fails, I support Edwards.

[7,052,770]

Clinton - 31
Obama - 28
Edwards - 22
Biden - 11
Richardson - 6
others - 2

[gorkay]

Since it looks to be close, turnout may be the deciding factor. Edwards has more experience at this kind of thing than the other two front-runners, which will favor him. The demographics of the voters who usually turn out favors Clinton. That's why I wonder if Obama will win, despite the polls that show him ahead.

[Sarnstrom]

As of today:

Obama 31%
Edwards 27%
Clinton 25%
Biden 8%
Richardson 6%
Dodd 2%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel <1%

[Tender Branson]

Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 20%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 8%
Dodd: 3%
Kucinich: 2%

God Tender, what an optimist you are!

Realist. I don´t trust the Iowa electorate. They´ll go for Hillary on Jan. 3, but I hope I´m terribly wrong ...

I know... you got scared by that phoney ARG poll...

It´s not the phoney ARG poll (which was really off) but the declining trend of Obama in the Strategic Vision polls, going from +8 a couple of weeks ago to +1 now, while the LA Times has him only 3rd among likely voters, about the result I predict above.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 20%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 8%
Dodd: 3%
Kucinich: 2%

God Tender, what an optimist you are!

Realist. I don´t trust the Iowa electorate. They´ll go for Hillary on Jan. 3, but I hope I´m terribly wrong ...

I know... you got scared by that phoney ARG poll...

It´s not the phoney ARG poll (which was really off) but the declining trend of Obama in the Strategic Vision polls, going from +8 a couple of weeks ago to +1 now, while the LA Times has him only 3rd among likely voters, about the result I predict above.

Yeah... I am becoming pretty concerned myself. I will probably put up a less optimistic prediction in a few days.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The LA Times sucks almost as bad as ARG.

[War on Want]

Obama 30%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 27%
Biden 7%
Richardson 6%
Other 1%