Predict Iowa for the Democrats

[Torie]

Sam your prediction is percentage of delegates, right?

[Sam Spade]

It should be noted that the person to win IA won't necessarily have the highest number of voters going to the caucus planning to choose them as their first choice.

That is what is based in part with my final prediction, in addition to the fact that the weather looks good this year (and the last minute momentum).  It's a lot of factors to play with.

[Sam Spade]

Sam your prediction is percentage of delegates, right?

Nope.  The delegate numbers will naturally be a little higher for Edwards.

I simply see some late-breaking Obama momentum, in combination with good weather and a Hillary who seems to be no one's second choice.

I could be "dead" wrong, however.  This one is not easy.

[Alcon]

Made this prediction on a blog earlier today, and am too lazy to check in to update it.

Clinton 32%
Edwards 28%
Obama 27%

Romney 29%
Huckabee 26%
McCain 23%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%

I'm quite sure that it will be wrong.

[Torie]

Sam your prediction is percentage of delegates, right?

Nope.  The delegate numbers will naturally be a little higher for Edwards.

I simply see some late-breaking Obama momentum, in combination with good weather and a Hillary who seems to be no one's second choice.

I could be "dead" wrong, however.  This one is not easy.

Well since we won't know the raw numbers of first choices, except from the entrance polls (the Dems don't like disclosing that), I guess we will never know.  All we will "know" is delegate percentages. It is either that or entrance polls. There is nothing else out there.

[MarkWarner08]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

This one's looking a bit changed than before - unlike the Republicans, I think I can clearly see what's going to happen (unless I'm wrong )  As I commented before, I see some late Obama momentum and I think turnout will be strong.  This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

Final Prediction - January 3, 2008
Obama 32.01%
Edwards 29.79%
Clinton 27.05%
Biden 4.79%
Richardson 4.42%
Others 1.94%

Good to see we're in agreement on the order of the candidates. Aren't you going to place Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel? Your prediction for Gravel -- 0.01%?

[Torie]

Made this prediction on a blog earlier today, and am too lazy to check in to update it.

Clinton 32%
Edwards 28%
Obama 27%

Romney 29%
Huckabee 26%
McCain 23%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%

I'm quite sure that it will be wrong.

Ya, 23% for McCain is way out there.

[Sam Spade]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

This one's looking a bit changed than before - unlike the Republicans, I think I can clearly see what's going to happen (unless I'm wrong )  As I commented before, I see some late Obama momentum and I think turnout will be strong.  This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

Final Prediction - January 3, 2008
Obama 32.01%
Edwards 29.79%
Clinton 27.05%
Biden 4.79%
Richardson 4.42%
Others 1.94%

Good to see we're in agreement on the order of the candidates. Aren't you going to place Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel? Your prediction for Gravel -- 0.01%?

I'll let you make a prediction on that one.

[MarkWarner08]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

This one's looking a bit changed than before - unlike the Republicans, I think I can clearly see what's going to happen (unless I'm wrong )  As I commented before, I see some late Obama momentum and I think turnout will be strong.  This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

Final Prediction - January 3, 2008
Obama 32.01%
Edwards 29.79%
Clinton 27.05%
Biden 4.79%
Richardson 4.42%
Others 1.94%

Good to see we're in agreement on the order of the candidates. Aren't you going to place Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel? Your prediction for Gravel -- 0.01%?

I'll let you make a prediction on that one.

LOL. If Gravel somehow beats Chris Dodd...

[Sam Spade]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

This one's looking a bit changed than before - unlike the Republicans, I think I can clearly see what's going to happen (unless I'm wrong )  As I commented before, I see some late Obama momentum and I think turnout will be strong.  This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

Final Prediction - January 3, 2008
Obama 32.01%
Edwards 29.79%
Clinton 27.05%
Biden 4.79%
Richardson 4.42%
Others 1.94%

Good to see we're in agreement on the order of the candidates. Aren't you going to place Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel? Your prediction for Gravel -- 0.01%?

I'll let you make a prediction on that one.

LOL. If Gravel somehow beats Chris Dodd...

That would make my evening (it won't happen, unfortunately).  Gravel has an interesting sense of humor...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL. If Gravel somehow beats Chris Dodd...

I predict 0 delegates for Gravel. Dodd might manage to get a couple.

[Verily]

LOL. If Gravel somehow beats Chris Dodd...

I predict 0 delegates for Gravel. Dodd might manage to get a couple.

Not if 2004 is any indication. Lieberman was polling higher than Dodd and managed no delegates.

[Platypus]

FINAL:

Clinton 32%
Obama 31%
Edwards 28%
Biden 5%
Others 4%

[Beet]

FIRST (AND FINAL):

Obama: 33.1
Clinton: 23.5
Edwards: 23.0

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

FINAL

Edwards 33%
Clinton 28%
Obama 25%

I think Edwards benefits from being a popular 2nd choice.  I also don't see all those young people showing up for Obama. 

[elcorazon]

LOL. If Gravel somehow beats Chris Dodd...

I predict 0 delegates for Gravel. Dodd might manage to get a couple.

Not if 2004 is any indication. Lieberman was polling higher than Dodd and managed no delegates.

why do you link Lieberman and Dodd?  Despite the same home state, they are nothing alike.  I still hold out hope that Dodd will surprise a bit... even if that only means 5% or something.  He's kinda like a less unpredictable Biden.  I could see the Dems who are feeling as though the big 3 lacks true experience might be grasping for Biden or Dodd as that choice and may opt for the more easily digestible Dodd as the guy to choose.

[Torie]

Entrance polls:

Obama 33%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 26%
Others 13%

Delegates:

Obama 38%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 30%
Others 2%

[Verily]

LOL. If Gravel somehow beats Chris Dodd...

I predict 0 delegates for Gravel. Dodd might manage to get a couple.

Not if 2004 is any indication. Lieberman was polling higher than Dodd and managed no delegates.

why do you link Lieberman and Dodd?  Despite the same home state, they are nothing alike.  I still hold out hope that Dodd will surprise a bit... even if that only means 5% or something.  He's kinda like a less unpredictable Biden.  I could see the Dems who are feeling as though the big 3 lacks true experience might be grasping for Biden or Dodd as that choice and may opt for the more easily digestible Dodd as the guy to choose.

Because they had similar levels of support (compare Clark in 2004 also). Unless Dodd's supporters are miraculously far more concentrated than Lieberman's were, he's not going to be above 5%, let alone 15%, anywhere.

[Erc]

FINAL:

Against all conventional wisdom and my better judgment...

Clinton: 37%
Obama: 29%
Edwards: 26%
Richardson: 5%
Field: 3%

(delegate count only, no entrance poll prediction)

[Sam Spade]

I am tempted to move Obama up to a 4-5% victory, but won't.

[Torie]

The tracking polls are in direct conflict on Hillary versus Obama, per politicalwire.com. One has Obama up by a lot, another Clinton up by a lot. Insider advantage shown on Real Clear Politics taken yesterday has the big three nearly tied: Obama 34%, Edwards 33%, and Clinton 32%. 

[Sam Spade]

The tracking polls are in direct conflict on Hillary versus Obama, per policalwire.com. One has Obama up by a lot, another Clinton up by a lot. Insider advantage shown on Real Clear Politics taken yesterday has the big three nearly tied: Obama 34%, Edwards 33%, and Clinton 32%. 

ARG is the outlier, and in ARG I do not trust.  The other polls would come out to a 3-4 point Obama win.  Zogby is actually historically very good in Iowa caucus predicting, so I'm not discounting his polls here like I might otherwise.

[Meeker]

For the first time really all year my gut is saying Obama, but I don't know whether that's actual logic or just buying into the obscene media hype that's occurring. My head still says Edwards though.

FINAL:

Edwards: 33%
Obama: 30%
Clinton: 27%
Biden: 4%
Richardson: 4%
Kucinich: 1%
Dodd: 1%
Gravel: 0%

[Platypus]

FINAL final

Obama 31
Clinton 30
Edwards 28
Others 11

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Entrance polls:

Obama 33%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 26%
Others 13%

Is that your prediction of entrance polls? I don't see how there can be any out THIS early.