NH-ARG: Sununu leads Shaheen by double-digits

[Tender Branson]

Has ARG become crazy lately ?

MANCHESTER – A new poll to be released today shows Republican Sen. John Sununu has taken over the lead in next year's U.S. Senate race against Democratic former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.

The American Research Group polled 558 likely voters Dec. 16-19 and found Sununu with 52 percent, Shaheen with 41 percent and 7 percent undecided. Earlier ARG polls showed Shaheen leading Sununu, most recently by 46 to 41 percent in September.

ARG also polled a hypothetical governor's race pitting Republican Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta against Democratic Gov. John Lynch. The poll shows Lynch leading, 48 to 32 percent with 20 percent undecided.

http://tinyurl.com/2ckaje

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Zogby > ARG

[Verily]

Lynch with only 48%? LOL, ARG.

[Tender Branson]

Lynch with only 48%? LOL, ARG.

Ahhh. Lynch won with 74% last year. So, 74-48=26 point GOP bias

Sununu 51 - 40 Shaheen = +11-26 => actually a +15 lead for Shaheen ?

[Verily]

Lynch with only 48%? LOL, ARG.

Ahhh. Lynch won with 74% last year. So, 74-48=26 point GOP bias

Sununu 51 - 40 Shaheen = +11-26 => actually a +15 lead for Shaheen ?

Well, that would at least jive with the non-ARG polls of the race (SUSA, D+11 and UNH, D+16). Rasmussen had only D+5, but mostly due to higher undecideds rather than higher Sununu numbers.

[Gabu]

This is the most unlikely poll I've seen all year, and that's saying something.

Unless Lynch was found murdering a little girl or something.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It'd be interesting if this somehow correlates to the recent poll in the Boston Globe showing that independents are increasingly likely (over the past month) to vote in the GOP primary.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And, just to be safe, I turned my -15 shares of GOP to win New Hampshire into +25 shares of GOP to win New Hampshire, since some sucker was selling it at 33.4.

I'm hoping to turn some of those shares around once the news hits, make another quick profit on the huge swing in the GOP's favor, and then short the GOP again.

[Hash]

What is this bullsh**t company?

[TheresNoMoney]

I can't wait for them to actually release the official poll and internal numbers. The whole thing looks absolutely ridiculous. In 6 previous polls, Shaheen has lead from 5%-28% with Sununu no higher than 42% in any of the polls.

The Governor poll is especially horrendous. An extremely popular governor who just won re-election with 74% of the vote only polls with 48% against a little known Republican mayor who just won re-election with only 54% of the vote? You gotta be kidding!

[TheresNoMoney]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/

Strange results from this poll: First off, they oversampled undeclared voters. Second, they have Sununu leading Shaheen 48% to 41% among undeclareds, which I find highly unlikely. Independent/undeclared voters lean fairly heavily towards the Democrats in this state.   Thirdly, they have 93% of Republicans supporting Sununu which I also find highly unlikely in an anti-war state like New Hampshire.

[agcatter]

I doubt the poll myself, but at the very least Sheehan's hubby ought to be flogged for his amateurish attempts to smear Obama.  That didn't go down well at all and gave Mrs Sheehan a complication she didn't need.  What a moronic thing to do.  What a dumbass.

[TheresNoMoney]

I doubt the poll myself, but at the very least Shaheen's hubby ought to be flogged for his amateurish attempts to smear Obama. 

I agree, but realistically I doubt anyone outside of hardcore political followers ever heard about his comment. I find it highly unlikely that his comment would affect his wife's poll numbers.

[agcatter]

You may be right.  I would agree that outside the state of NH those comments wouldn't have made much of a ripple.  However, since they were made in NH during the NH primary campaign by the husband of the Democratic candidate in the NH Senate race, I'll bet it has had some negative effect on NH voters and that a good number heard about it and didn't like it.  It sure didn't help Mrs. Sheehan.  Whether that actually gives Sununu some hope or not is up in the air.  Perhaps "hope" is all it provides.  He'd probably need a lot more help than this.

Frankly, I haven't followed this race since I've assumed Sununu was pretty much toast.  I was frankly surprised that Rasmussen had Sununu within 5 pts.

[TheresNoMoney]

Frankly, I haven't followed this race since I've assumed Sununu was pretty much toast.  I was frankly surprised that Rasmussen had Sununu within 5 pts.

I was too. However, the most recent two polls in this race (October and November) had Shaheen up 16% and 11% (UNH Survey Center and SurveyUSA).

[Adlai Stevenson]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/

Strange results from this poll: First off, they oversampled undeclared voters. Second, they have Sununu leading Shaheen 48% to 41% among undeclareds, which I find highly unlikely. Independent/undeclared voters lean fairly heavily towards the Democrats in this state.   Thirdly, they have 93% of Republicans supporting Sununu which I also find highly unlikely in an anti-war state like New Hampshire.

It seems like ARG is basing its poll heavily upon the Republicans.  93% of them back Sununu in this poll, up from 80% in September and 61% in June - I don't see how the results could be so drastically affected by this, however.  And I still think Shaheen is ahead; if all goes to plan she should end up winning here by about 54%-45% or so.  Possibly more, but not less. 

[Mr.Phips]

This poll is a joke.  There is no way Sununu went from trailing by 10 points to leading by 11.  There is also no way John Lynch, who has like a 75% approval rating, is being held under 50% by a nobody. 

[Sam Spade]

My gut says the poll is an outlier, but it may not be.  Best to wait until other polls come down the pipeline, and besides it's early anyway.  A lot can happen.

[Rococo4]

Maybe more people like Sununu now.

[Eraserhead]

It is ARG, so it is probably way off but I would laugh if it wasn't. I can't stand Shaheen and her asshat husband.

[HardRCafé]

If it's true, maybe she'll lose the primary.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Maybe more people like Sununu now.

I doubt that's the reason.

If this poll is legit, or at least close enough such that Sununu is in the lead (it's hard for an indy poll to be off by 20 points), I'd estimate it's because New Hampshire is intensely focusing on the 2008 Presidential contest.

What does that mean?  Well, it means New Hampshire, more than anywhere else, has already put the Bush administration behind them and are instead focusing on the new crop of Republicans.  If you're excited about Rudy, or McCain, or maybe even Huckabee, you're not focusing on the past failures of Republicans.  You're focused on the future.

And it's the past failures of Republicans that mainly put Democrats into the driver's seat in New Hampshire.

Truth be told, it will be a real challenge for Democrats to make 2008 about Bush.  It's just not the natural way people think.

[Rococo4]

Maybe more people like Sununu now.

I doubt that's the reason.

If this poll is legit, or at least close enough such that Sununu is in the lead (it's hard for an indy poll to be off by 20 points), I'd estimate it's because New Hampshire is intensely focusing on the 2008 Presidential contest.

What does that mean?  Well, it means New Hampshire, more than anywhere else, has already put the Bush administration behind them and are instead focusing on the new crop of Republicans.  If you're excited about Rudy, or McCain, or maybe even Huckabee, you're not focusing on the past failures of Republicans.  You're focused on the future.

And it's the past failures of Republicans that mainly put Democrats into the driver's seat in New Hampshire.

Truth be told, it will be a real challenge for Democrats to make 2008 about Bush.  It's just not the natural way people think.

Well I doubt it too.....but this race will be close.  Senate rematches usually end up the same way. 

[Torie]

It may be that the tide has turned some against the Dems in general as Iraq settles down, Pelosi and Reid do their thing, Bush remains low profile, etc. We shall see.

[Mr.Phips]

It may be that the tide has turned some against the Dems in general as Iraq settles down, Pelosi and Reid do their thing, Bush remains low profile, etc. We shall see.

Most people don't even know who Reid and Pelosi are.