Which landslide was greater?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Which landslide was greater?
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#1
FDR in 1936
 
#2
LBJ in 1964
 
#3
Nixon in 1972
 
#4
Reagan in 1984
 
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Author Topic: Which landslide was greater?  (Read 5072 times)
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« on: December 20, 2007, 06:47:03 PM »

I would have to say either FDR in 1936 or LBJ in 1964, because of the overall effects.  Neither Nixon or Reagan were to able to bring in congressional majorities with their landslide; in 1936, FDR brought in 7 Senate seats and 12 in the House; in 1964, LBJ brought in 2 Senate seats but 36 House seats.  In 1972, Nixon only brought in 1 Senate seat and 12 House seats, and Reagan in 1984 lost 1 Senate seat, and gained 16 House seats.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2007, 07:04:10 PM »

Hmm, a tough one.  Roosevelt '36 had the biggest win in the electoral college (523-8; 98.49%) and the biggest vote margin (24.25%); Johnson '64 had the largest share of the overall vote (61.05%); Nixon '72 won the biggest vote margin (17,995,488); and Reagan '84 won the most votes (54,455,472) and the most electoral votes (525).

There is no clear answer to this, without specifying exactly what kind of statistic determines a 'landslide'.
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Verily
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« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2007, 07:13:00 PM »

Johnson. The popular vote should be the ultimate arbiter of landslides, contrarian states notwithstanding.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2007, 07:27:26 PM »

Hmm, a tough one.  Roosevelt '36 had the biggest win in the electoral college (523-8; 98.49%) and the biggest vote margin (24.25%); Johnson '64 had the largest share of the overall vote (61.05%); Nixon '72 won the biggest vote margin (17,995,488); and Reagan '84 won the most votes (54,455,472) and the most electoral votes (525).

There is no clear answer to this, without specifying exactly what kind of statistic determines a 'landslide'.

I call a landslide overall victories for one political party.  That includes PV, EV, as well as congressional and state elections; that was why I voted for FDR in '36, because of the overall victory.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2007, 10:27:10 PM »

Well... like all competitions, one must look at the strength of the competition.

1) Who in the Hell was Alf Landon?  Anybody?

2) Barry Goldwater was the definition of extreme, plus the JFK bump-off bump had a lot to do with that one.

3) McGovern was the Democrat Goldwater.  The only difference is that Nixon won without help.

4) On the other hand, at least Mondale was a former VP.  He was actually somebody.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2007, 12:19:31 AM »

Well... like all competitions, one must look at the strength of the competition.

1) Who in the Hell was Alf Landon?  Anybody?


Governor of Kansas; Nancy Kassinbaum's father. Wink

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Bingo, and Reagan won the first by trouncing Mondale's President, Carter.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2007, 01:27:22 AM »

I voted Reagan's 1984 landslide. No one got closer to carrying all 50 states than he did. He only lost MN by a few thousand votes. So across the board, Reagan was strong in ALL regions of the country.

1972, Massachusetts went to McGovern by a decent margin.
1964, the deep south CLEARLY went for Goldwater
1936, I believe it was only VT and ME that not only didn't go to FDR that year, but those two NEVER voted for FDR.
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Gabu
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2007, 03:04:21 AM »

As I said in another topic, the image I see when I hear "landslide" is this giant, unstoppable force coming down a mountain and wiping out the totally helpless citizens below.  So my metric for determining whether or not something was a landslide is not just the number of states won or anything like that, but how strong the victory was... or, equivalently, what percentage of the popular vote would need to be changed to reverse the victory.  The bigger the percentage, the littler chance the opponent had of stopping the election, which is what I feel a "landslide" implies.

The percentage for each of the elections listed is roughly as follows:

1936: 11% shift to Landon.
1964: 13% shift to Goldwater.
1972: 12% shift to McGovern.
1984: 10% shift to Mondale.

So by this metric, the biggest landslide was 1964, with 1972 close behind, and then 1936 and 1984 respectively bringing up the remainder.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2007, 09:21:28 AM »

It worth noting, also, that Reagan intentionally didn't campaign in Minnesota.  He didn't want to insult/embarrass Mondale.  Had he... he probably would have won all 50.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2007, 09:46:03 AM »

As I said in another topic, the image I see when I hear "landslide" is this giant, unstoppable force coming down a mountain and wiping out the totally helpless citizens below.  So my metric for determining whether or not something was a landslide is not just the number of states won or anything like that, but how strong the victory was... or, equivalently, what percentage of the popular vote would need to be changed to reverse the victory.  The bigger the percentage, the littler chance the opponent had of stopping the election, which is what I feel a "landslide" implies.

The percentage for each of the elections listed is roughly as follows:

1936: 11% shift to Landon.
1964: 13% shift to Goldwater.
1972: 12% shift to McGovern.
1984: 10% shift to Mondale.

So by this metric, the biggest landslide was 1964, with 1972 close behind, and then 1936 and 1984 respectively bringing up the remainder.

I disagree.  A lot of Johnson's lead was padded by a massive national divide, which wasn't quite as present in the other races.  It is hard to imagine how Goldwater wins, but it is not hard to imagine him getting 150 EV's or so if the election were a little different.  But there are many states that Goldwater had no chance in.
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Gabu
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« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2007, 10:45:54 AM »


There isn't very much to disagree about; most of what I posted was simply factual information. Tongue

If you disagree with my definition of a landslide, that's fine... I disagree with yours, then. Wink
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Michael Z
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« Reply #11 on: December 21, 2007, 11:55:52 AM »

In terms of voting difference, or in terms of the effects it had? Well, in the latter case it's a tie between FDR '36 and Reagan '84. FDR's victory in 1936 sealed the New Deal and thus shaped American domestic policy for the next three decades. Reagan's victory in '84 marginalised the liberals and ensured until very, very recently that, if Democrats wanted to win an election they had to pose as a conservative (vis-a-vis Clinton, Gore, Kerry). So it's arguable that both victories had a significant impact on the wider historical- and sociopolitical spectrum.

Looking at LBJ's victory in 64, yes it helped cement the Civil Rights Act, but Goldwater's ideological legacy eventually led to Reaganism, and his candidacy as a whole ensured that the Republicans would be dominated by the arch-conservative wing of the Party for the foreseeable future. Equally, Nixon's 72 victory meant diddly squat when you consider that he resigned two years after and the Republicans were, for a short while at least, driven to the political margins because of Watergate.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2007, 12:03:15 PM »

In terms of voting difference, or in terms of the effects it had?

Should never be forgot that Thatcher's surprisingly narrow win in '79 had more of a mediu... eh... what most would call long term... effect than Macmillan's relative landslide twenty years earlier.
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gorkay
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« Reply #13 on: December 21, 2007, 02:13:44 PM »

I thought Reagan did campaign in Minnesota... in fact, I remember a big deal being made about the fact that he was going to Minnesota in the last couple of days of the campaign because it was the only state that was in doubt.

Anyway, I'd say that it would be between 1936 and 1964. I would exclude 1972 because Nixon was not able to deliver a Republican majority in either house of Congress despite his huge win, and 1984 because, although Reagan's margin in the electoral college was enormous, his popular-vote margin wasn't as great as in the other three landslides. In fact it was more comparable to Eisenhower's margin over Stevenson in '56. Since the popular-vote and congressional outcomes in '36 and '64 were similar, I'll go to the electoral vote as the tie-breaker and give it to FDR.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #14 on: December 21, 2007, 08:24:10 PM »


There isn't very much to disagree about; most of what I posted was simply factual information. Tongue

If you disagree with my definition of a landslide, that's fine... I disagree with yours, then. Wink

Well... I was disagreeing with your method... sorry, I thought that was clear.
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Julian Francis
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« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2007, 10:12:50 PM »

FDR in '36. Poor old Alf Landon Sad. He shouldn't have been the GOP's nominee that year, after all he was a progressive GOPer.
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Nym90
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« Reply #16 on: December 27, 2007, 01:17:23 AM »

Harding in 1920 should be considered as well. Largest margin of victory ever in the popular vote.

I voted FDR 1936. Largest margin of victory and highest percentage of the vote ever in the electoral vote. Closest anyone has ever come to a shutout in the electoral college in terms of percentage swing necessary to achieve the shutout. Also largest margin of victory in the popular vote of those listed.

All of the above superlatives are only considering the Democratic vs. Republican era.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #17 on: February 13, 2008, 08:39:14 PM »

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