MS-Research2000: Wicker and Pickering moderately ahead of Musgrove, Moore

[Tender Branson]

MISSISSIPPI POLL RESULTS - DECEMBER 2007
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Mississippi Poll was conducted from December 10 through December 12, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. 

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                 292   (49%)             
Women               308   (51%)
Democrats           233   (39%)   
Republicans         274   (46%)   
Independents/Other   93   (15%)
18-29               102   (17%)
30-44               192   (32%)
45-59               186   (31%)
60+                 120   (20%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Moore? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION 

ALL                 12%     33%     18%      9%     28%

MEN                 10%     31%     22%     10%     27%
WOMEN               14%     35%     14%      8%     29%
DEMOCRATS           19%     44%      8%      3%     26%
REPUBLICANS          6%     25%     26%     15%     28%
INDEPENDENTS        10%     30%     20%      9%     31%
18-29               15%     37%     13%      5%     30%
30-44               11%     32%     19%     10%     28%
45-59               11%     31%     20%     10%     28%
60+                 10%     31%     20%     11%     28%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ronnie Musgrove? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION 

ALL                 10%     31%     18%     10%     31%

MEN                  9%     29%     21%     11%     30%
WOMEN               11%     33%     15%      9%     32%
DEMOCRATS           17%     43%      8%      3%     29%
REPUBLICANS          5%     22%     26%     17%     30%
INDEPENDENTS         8%     28%     20%     10%     34%
18-29               13%     35%     12%      6%     34%
30-44                9%     30%     19%     11%     31%
45-59                8%     29%     20%     11%     32%
60+                  8%     28%     20%     12%     32%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roger Wicker? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION 

ALL                 15%     34%     11%      6%     34%

MEN                 16%     36%     11%      7%     36%
WOMEN               14%     32%     11%      7%     36%
DEMOCRATS            6%     20%     18%     10%     46%
REPUBLICANS         23%     45%      6%      3%     23%
INDEPENDENTS        17%     35%      9%      5%     34%
18-29               12%     30%     14%      9%     35%
30-44               16%     35%     10%      6%     33%
45-59               16%     35%      9%      5%     35%
60+                 16%     36%      9%      5%     34%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chip Pickering? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION 

ALL                 13%     33%     12%      7%     35%

MEN                 14%     35%     11%      6%     34%
WOMEN               12%     31%     13%      8%     36%
DEMOCRATS            5%     18%     20%     12%     45%
REPUBLICANS         20%     45%      7%      3%     37%
INDEPENDENTS        15%     34%      8%      6%     37%
18-29               10%     28%     16%     11%     35%
30-44               14%     34%     11%      7%     34%
45-59               14%     34%     11%      6%     35%
60+                 15%     35%      9%      6%     35%
-----


QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mike Moore, the Democrat, and Roger Wicker, the Republican?

                  WICKER        MOORE         UNDECIDED       

ALL                 46%         39%         15%

MEN                 50%         37%         13%
WOMEN               42%         41%         17%
DEMOCRATS            8%         77%         15%
REPUBLICANS         78%          7%         15%
INDEPENDENTS        47%         37%         16%
18-29               42%         44%         14%
30-44               47%         38%         15%
45-59               47%         37%         16%
60+                 49%         36%         15%


QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mike Moore, the Democrat, and Chip Pickering, the Republican?

                  PICKERING    MOORE         UNDECIDED       

ALL                 45%         41%         14%

MEN                 49%         38%         13%
WOMEN               41%         44%         15%
DEMOCRATS            7%         80%         13%
REPUBLICANS         77%          8%         15%
INDEPENDENTS        46%         40%         14%
18-29               39%         48%         13%
30-44               46%         40%         14%
45-59               46%         39%         15%
60+                 47%         38%         15%


QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mike Moore, the Democrat, and Roger Wicker, the Republican?

                  WICKER        MUSGROVE      UNDECIDED       

ALL                 47%         39%         14%

MEN                 50%         37%         13%
WOMEN               44%         41%         15%
DEMOCRATS            8%         78%         14%
REPUBLICANS         79%          7%         14%
INDEPENDENTS        48%         37%         15%
18-29               43%         50%         12%
30-44               49%         38%         13%
45-59               49%         37%         14%
60+                 50%         35%         15%


QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mike Moore, the Democrat, and Chip Pickering, the Republican?

                  PICKERING    MUSGROVE      UNDECIDED       

ALL                 45%         39%         16%

MEN                 49%         37%         16%
WOMEN               41%         41%         18%
DEMOCRATS            6%         78%         16%
REPUBLICANS         78%          7%         15%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         37%         18%
18-29              40%          46%         14%
30-44               46%         38%         16%
45-59               46%         37%         17%
60+                 47%         36%         17%

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/12/14/15643/965/129/421920

[Jake]

I think this shoots the Mike Moore as a front runner argument down. Do difference between him and Musgrove? No wonder he's not running.

[jokerman]

According to Moulitsas blacks were heavily undersampled in the poll.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think this shoots the Mike Moore as a front runner argument down. Do difference between him and Musgrove? No wonder he's not running.

Moore does significantly better against Pickering than Musgrove (yes, it's only two points, but by a 4 point lead is only 2/3 of a 6 point lead), but yes, he's far from favored in any case and he probably knows this.

[7,052,770]

Blacks only made up 9% of the people in this poll...they make up over a third of the state.  Toss out this poll.

[Rococo4]

Blacks only made up 9% of the people in this poll...they make up over a third of the state.  Toss out this poll.

But do they comprise a third of the electorate?

[7,052,770]

Blacks only made up 9% of the people in this poll...they make up over a third of the state.  Toss out this poll.

But do they comprise a third of the electorate?

yes.  In 2004, they were 34%.

[Verily]

Blacks only made up 9% of the people in this poll...they make up over a third of the state.  Toss out this poll.

But do they comprise a third of the electorate?

The racial voting gap is not so large as to turn nearly 40% of the population into 10% of the electorate. Maybe 30-35%.

[Rococo4]

Blacks only made up 9% of the people in this poll...they make up over a third of the state.  Toss out this poll.

But do they comprise a third of the electorate?

yes.  In 2004, they were 34%.

good to know, thanks for the info

[7,052,770]

John Eaves released a survey showing Musgrove leading Wicker 48-36.

[HardRCafé]

John Eaves released a survey showing Musgrove leading Wicker 48-36.

That name rings a bell.  Who is he again?