JFK Lives -- Who's his successor?

[pragmatic liberal]

JFK is not assassinated in Dallas and wins a second term in a landslide. For the sake of argument, let's assume that he survives his second term, despite his health problems, and let's also assume that he completes his term of office.

Who do the Republicans nominate in 1968? Who do the Democrats nominate?

Ultimately, who is JFK's successor?

Obviously, there's no way of knowing what the outcome would have been, but I'd suspect that...

(a) In the absence of prolonged Vietnam involvement, the Democrats nominate Lyndon Johnson. Robert Kennedy and some northern liberals attempt to find someone else to run in his place and RFK himself flirts with running, but ultimately in the interests of party unity, Johnson faces no major opposition. JFK duly endorses him (similar to Eisenhower and Nixon).

The Republicans nominate George Romney -- no Nixon comeback in this campaign -- and he duly loses to LBJ.

From there on, things get even murkier. But assuming LBJ runs for reelection in 1972 (health concerns don't stop him), he may well lose to Ronald Reagan... that is, assuming Ronald Reagan is still elected governor of California without anti-Vietnam riots and protests.

(b) If Vietnam were to occur as it did in real life, the Democratic Party is equally divided in 1968. Democrats nominate Lyndon Johnson, who vows to continue the Kennedy administration war policies, but is opposed by Eugene McCarthy. McCarthy doesn't win, but his movement splits the party and Richard Nixon is elected in 1968.

Your turn...

[Lincoln Republican]

Actually, under either scenario, Nixon wins the Republican nomination and the election.  He just wins by a bigger margin under scenario (b) than under scenario (a).

America was ready for change in 1968, and the former Vice President offered the experience and the ability to reunite and to lead the nation.

[Dr. Cynic]

The major problem with either scenario is the assumption that LBJ would be his successor. Kennedy was planning on dropping Johnson in 1964, there are even records of him mentioning it in conversation. Whoever it would be, it would be someone JFK liked. Possibly still Humphrey, or it could've gone another way, possibly Scoop Jackson or John Pastore.

[pragmatic liberal]

The major problem with either scenario is the assumption that LBJ would be his successor. Kennedy was planning on dropping Johnson in 1964, there are even records of him mentioning it in conversation. Whoever it would be, it would be someone JFK liked. Possibly still Humphrey, or it could've gone another way, possibly Scoop Jackson or John Pastore.

Lots of people mentioned that Kennedy wanted to drop Johnson. Still, I have some doubt it would actually have happened. It would have provoked a HUGE fight at the convention and in the end, I doubt anything would have come of it -- similar to how Nixon wanted to drop Agnew in 1972 and how Eisenhower wanted to drop Nixon in '56.

[WalterMitty]

humphrey is likely the democrat nominee in 68.  rfk wouldnt try for the nomination, hed go to mass or ny and run for governor or senator and wait until 72 or 76 to run for president.

[© tweed]

RFK, if he still lives.  then Ted in '76.

[gorkay]

Sounds like something you or someone else should do a timeline about, to explore the manifold possibilities.

[gorkay]

Sounds like something you or someone else should do a timeline about, to explore the manifold possibilities.

I plan to start a timeline on this topic during my Christmas vacation.

Cool. Looking forward to it. It will be interesting to see a Republican take on Democratic politics. Sometimes I think it's easier for us to be objective about the opposing party.

[Wakie]

JFK wins 1964 and lives out his term in office.  South Vietnam falls during his 2nd term in office and he is widely criticized by Republicans and within his own party.  Without the Vietnam War to act as a rallying point for the 1960s youth, the "sex, drugs, and rock n roll" culture is much more just about "sex, drugs, and rock n roll".  Border tension between China and Vietnam eventually turns to many skirmishes and the "Domino Theory" is disproved

1968 Election - LBJ gets thrashed by Richard Nixon and forever blames John Kennedy saying in his memoirs "there is no doubt in my mind we could have won in Vietnam".

The economy doesn't get battered by the massive war deficits and Nixon has time to focus on other agenda items.  By 1972 he looks to be a shoe-in for reelection.  The Dem nomination is wide open.  RFK decides not to run.  Muskie looks like an early favorite but then has his "Canuck Letter" moment and the momentum shifts to Scoop Jackson.  However, Nixon is still a paranoid freak and Watergate still happens.

1972 Election - Nixon wins solidly over Scoop Jackson.

Following the election the events of Watergate unfold and Nixon eventually resigns.  Ford comes into office.  The Democrats seem resurgent and in 1976 Bobby Kennedy wins the Dem nomination.  He selects Jimmy Carter as his VP.

1976 Election - RFK wins handily over Ford.

RFK does much better as President than Carter did in reality.  Again, with no Vietnam war debt the economy is slightly better but the oil crisis does create a major problem.  RFK creates his own version of the space program but pursuing alternative energy.  The Islamic revolution in Iran though poses a big problem.  RFK hears the old criticism of his brother (that he is soft on foreign policy).  Like Carter he attempts a rescue mission only to have it blow up before it begins.

1980 Election - Reagan defeats RFK.  The criticism of RFK is that he's too timid.  There isn't as stark of a contrast though between Reagan and RFK as there was between Reagan and Carter.

Reagan continues RFK's alternative energy program, seeing it as a way to drive down oil prices and thereby strike a blow at both Iran and the USSR.  He also pumps up the defense budget.  Jimmy Carter wins the Dem nomination for President in 1984.

1984 Election - Reagan defeats Carter (but not by the Mondale margin).

Reagan's 2nd term sees some breakthroughs in alternative energy but pretty much goes as is.  Encouraged by the Kennedy's, and not discouraged by a massive Mondale-esque defeat in '84, Mario Cuomo runs and wins the Democratic nomination.

1988 Election - In one of the dirtiest elections in recent history George HW Bush defeats Mario Cuomo.

Bush guts the alternative energy program.  His Presidency pretty much stays as was.  The Dems nominate Bill Clinton in 1992.

1992 Election - Bill Clinton pulls off the upset of HW Bush.
1996 Election - Clinton over Dole
2000 Election - W Bush over Gore

Only difference here is that John Edwards wins the Dem nomination.  The reason being that w/o his "war hero" status there was no way John Kerry would have won the nomination.  Dean still does the "yell" and self-destructs.  Edwards gets the momentum and wins the nom.

2004 Election - W Bush over Edwards

[Julian Francis]

In scenario A, Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson dosen't get the 1968 Democratic nomination and it goes to Senator Hubert Humphrey. HHH loses to Nixon in the 1968 Presidential Election, loftsided victory to Nixon here.

In scenario B, like in RL Nixon wins greater margin.

[gorkay]

These scenarios suggest a 1972 election matchup between Nixon and Robert Kennedy (who had planned to run in 1972 anyway until LBJ decided not to run for another term). That would have been an interesting one.

[cmt]

JFK lives.  His successor wouldn't have been AG Robert Kennedy.  Even if JFK were still popular I don't think that we can automatically assume his brother would succeed him.  It would smell like and be nepotism.  We also don't know how the world situation would have been in '68 with JFK.  I believe we would be involved in Vietnam in some way, but not sure if it would be as bad as under LBJ.  I also don't think VP Johnson would be the Democratic nominee.  I could see Hubert Humphrey, Scoop Jackson, and others going for the nomination.  I think there is a good chance that if JFK lived and the country was ready for a change in '68 that it might be Nelson Rockefeller or George Romney. 

[pragmatic liberal]

JFK wins 1964 and lives out his term in office.  South Vietnam falls during his 2nd term in office and he is widely criticized by Republicans and within his own party.  Without the Vietnam War to act as a rallying point for the 1960s youth, the "sex, drugs, and rock n roll" culture is much more just about "sex, drugs, and rock n roll".  Border tension between China and Vietnam eventually turns to many skirmishes and the "Domino Theory" is disproved

1968 Election - LBJ gets thrashed by Richard Nixon and forever blames John Kennedy saying in his memoirs "there is no doubt in my mind we could have won in Vietnam".

The economy doesn't get battered by the massive war deficits and Nixon has time to focus on other agenda items.  By 1972 he looks to be a shoe-in for reelection.  The Dem nomination is wide open.  RFK decides not to run.  Muskie looks like an early favorite but then has his "Canuck Letter" moment and the momentum shifts to Scoop Jackson.  However, Nixon is still a paranoid freak and Watergate still happens.

1972 Election - Nixon wins solidly over Scoop Jackson.

Following the election the events of Watergate unfold and Nixon eventually resigns.  Ford comes into office.  The Democrats seem resurgent and in 1976 Bobby Kennedy wins the Dem nomination.  He selects Jimmy Carter as his VP.

1976 Election - RFK wins handily over Ford.

RFK does much better as President than Carter did in reality.  Again, with no Vietnam war debt the economy is slightly better but the oil crisis does create a major problem.  RFK creates his own version of the space program but pursuing alternative energy.  The Islamic revolution in Iran though poses a big problem.  RFK hears the old criticism of his brother (that he is soft on foreign policy).  Like Carter he attempts a rescue mission only to have it blow up before it begins.

1980 Election - Reagan defeats RFK.  The criticism of RFK is that he's too timid.  There isn't as stark of a contrast though between Reagan and RFK as there was between Reagan and Carter.

Reagan continues RFK's alternative energy program, seeing it as a way to drive down oil prices and thereby strike a blow at both Iran and the USSR.  He also pumps up the defense budget.  Jimmy Carter wins the Dem nomination for President in 1984.

1984 Election - Reagan defeats Carter (but not by the Mondale margin).

Reagan's 2nd term sees some breakthroughs in alternative energy but pretty much goes as is.  Encouraged by the Kennedy's, and not discouraged by a massive Mondale-esque defeat in '84, Mario Cuomo runs and wins the Democratic nomination.

1988 Election - In one of the dirtiest elections in recent history George HW Bush defeats Mario Cuomo.

Bush guts the alternative energy program.  His Presidency pretty much stays as was.  The Dems nominate Bill Clinton in 1992.

1992 Election - Bill Clinton pulls off the upset of HW Bush.
1996 Election - Clinton over Dole
2000 Election - W Bush over Gore

Only difference here is that John Edwards wins the Dem nomination.  The reason being that w/o his "war hero" status there was no way John Kerry would have won the nomination.  Dean still does the "yell" and self-destructs.  Edwards gets the momentum and wins the nom.

2004 Election - W Bush over Edwards

A couple quibbles: mainly, I really don't see how Carter would have been the nominee in 1984. He would have been a former Southern governor out of office for 10 years, and his rise in 1976 had a ton to do with Watergate and dissatisfaction with inflation and the energy crisis, both of which fed the impression that Washington needed an outsider to fix it.

Far more likely that the '84 Democratic candidate would be RFK's veep or some establishment northern Democrat. Maybe Ted Kennedy would have had his shot, although it would have reeked of dynasty for yet another Kennedy to be nominated.

I also think the in '72, Muskie would not have been the major frontrunner unless he had been Johnson's running mate in '68. At the time the DP was much more top-down - Humphrey seems a far likelier pick to me.

Those are the only major quibbles. Otherwise, it's fairly plausible, although as with any counterfactual there are big unknowns. Would Watergate have been "butterflied away"? Would you still see the same major politicians today, since slightly different political climates could easily have impacted who won and lost various elections at the state level.

[pragmatic liberal]

Anyway, here's my list of presidents:

35. John F. Kennedy (1961-1969) -- Wins a landslide reelection over Barry Goldwater. His second term sees a withdrawal of US forces from Vietnam, an arms control agreement with the Soviet Union and a normalization of relations with Cuba. In domestic policy, he succeeds early in his second term with passing a series of tax cuts, the establishment of the HUD Department, increased funding for space exploration and a series of landmark civil rights bills (which still amount to less than the real-life '64 Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act -- desegregation still occurs, but its' more piecemeal, spread out over the Kennedy and Johnson administrations and Supreme Court under Earl Warren, then, from 1969, under Arthur Goldberg, takes a more activist role than in real-life, in several cases ruling the curtailing of black voting rights in the South unconstitutional and ordering the enforcement of Reconstruction-Era civil rights acts.

Kennedy retires quite popular but a controversial figure in the South. He becomes president of the University of Massachusetts and lectures on the international circuit. Nevertheless, his health is poor and he dies suddenly from a heart attack in 1975 at the age of 58. He is succeeded by his wife, Jacqueline Kennedy, and three children, Caroline, John, Jr. and Cameron (b. 1965).

36. Lyndon B. Johnson (1969-1973) -- prevails at the Democratic convention despite a "draft Bobby" movement. He then narrowly defeats George Romney in 1968.
37. Nelson A. Rockefeller (1973-1977) -- in a tumultuous election, he narrowly beats Ronald Reagan for the Republican nomination with a coalition of liberals and moderates in the party, by moving to the right on drugs and busing and picking a Southerner (Howard Baker) as his running mate. The Democrats nominate Hubert Humphrey after an acrimonious nomination battle between him and RFK. Johnson declines to run for reelection due to his failing health but also due to tanking popularity, a conservative backlash, major racial strife and the fall of South Vietnam. George Wallace, who had challenged Johnson in the Democratic primary in '68, runs as an independent this time, taking 22% of the vote.
38. Edward M. Kennedy (1977-1981) -- In terms of domestic legislation, Rockefeller's administration resembles the real-life Nixon administration, but amidst the energy crisis of 1973, high inflation and conservative dissatisfaction with the Rockefeller administration, he loses to Ted Kennedy. After two bids at the nomination, RFK declines to run again, instead endorsing his brother. The "EMK"-Lloyd Bentsen ticket narrowly defeats Rockefeller. The Wallace third-party faction has declined, but their nominee, Lester Maddox, still pulls 6% of the popular vote.
39. Ronald W. Reagan (1981-1989) -- The three-term governor of California (in this TL, reelected in 1976 to a third term) finally, on this third try, wins the Republican nomination. Kennedy's administration has been a troubled one, and despite some successes in the domestic policy arena, he is still undone by high inflation, anemic economic growth, strong conservative opposition in Congress to his health care policies, and a second energy crisis. Reagan wins a narrower election than in real-life, selecting as his running mate former VP Howard Baker, who Reagan defeated for the nomination.

Kennedy, at 48, is the youngest ex-president in history. He and Joan Kennedy, the former first lady, return to Boston in 1981; the two divorce in early 1982. He stays out of the public eye until 1983, when he returns to the lecture circuit and starts teaching at Harvard while planning his presidential library. In 1984, he stuns the political world by declaring his intention to return to the Senate when Paul Tsongas announces he will retire due to cancer. Kennedy makes a triumphant return to the Senate and serves for the remainder of his life.

In 1984, Reagan wins reelection against Sen. Gary Hart of Colorado. Hart was a dark-horse candidate, who upset the establishment favorite, Sen. Walter "Fritz" Mondale of Minnesota. Despite Reagan's high approval ratings, Hart is able to keep Reagan under 10%.

40. Howard Baker (1989-1993) -- Reagan and Rockefeller's vice president narrowly defeats Gov. Mario Cuomo of New York. Cuomo won the nomination after '84 nominee Gary Hart's bid fell apart amidst allegations of womanizing. Robert F. Kennedy, 63, the former Attorney General, the former Senator from New York (1971-1974) and the former New York governor (1974-1982), declines to run, instead becoming president of the ADA and an activist for urban poverty issues.

41. William J. Clinton (1993-2001) -- Amidst a major recession in 1991, Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas defeats Howard Baker's bid for reelection. The Clinton administration largely continues as in real-life, although perhaps RFK comes back to serve as HUD secretary for the first 4 or 5 years of Clinton's presidency (?)

42. Jeb Bush (2001-2009) -- Jeb Bush, the governor of Florida, defeats Sen. John McCain of Arizona for the Republican nomination and wins the presidency over Vice President Al Gore. Bush is the the grandson of Sen. Prescott Bush of Connecticut and the son of George H.W. Bush (former Texas Congressman, former Ambassador (Egypt, 1985-1987; India, 1987-1989), and former cabinet secretary in the Rockefeller and Reagan administrations (Commerce, 1973-1976; Energy, 1981-1985).

[Robespierre's Jaw]

a correction on your Reagan story. If Reagan had run for a third term as governor of California, he would have run in 1974 not 1976.

Why did you quote the whole post just to say that Garrison? Disgraceful. Disgraceful.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

35.  John F. Kennedy (D-MA, 1961-1969)
36.  Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX, 1969-1973)*
37.  Hubert Humphrey (D-MN, 1973-1977)
38.  Ronald Reagan (R-CA, 1977-1981)
39.  Edward Kennedy (D-MA, 1981-1989)
40.  Dick Lugar (R-IN, 1989-1997)
41.  Bill Clinton (D-AR, 1997-2005)
42.  Al Gore (D-TN, 2005-2009)

*Indicates died in office